Future Redbirds

Mitch Boggs may not have the upper nineties fastball or sharp slider that Adam Ottavino has. He does not have the heavy sinker or 12-6 dropper of Jaime Garcia. He doesn’t have the pinpoint control of Tyler Herron or P.J. Walters. He may not garner the same type of attention that other Cardinal pitching prospects do, but there is still plenty to like.

Background

Boggs was drafted in the 5th round of the 2005 draft out of the University of Georgia. He pitched for just 11 innings in 2003 as a freshman, walked 15 batters and gave up 12 runs. Boggs reconsidered his decision to play baseball and transfered to the University of Tennessee-Chattanooga to play QB. There he saw about as much playing time as Aaron Rodgers has had in Green Bay, so he had another change of heart and went back to Georgia to give baseball another try. His 2005 college stats are somewhat underwhelming. He started only 2 games and was used mostly in middle relief for the Bulldogs, but he did eventually become the team’s closer late in the season. He struck out 48 batters in 47 innings, walking 16 but was also fairly hittable, allowing 52 hits and posting a 5.89 ERA. For all the talk that Luhnow is a geek with spreadsheets and that he takes a dogmatic approach to the draft, Boggs was anything but that type of player. Scouts liked due to his size, athleticism, stuff and demeanor ahead of his numbers. BA ranked him the #161th best player going into the draft.

Track record

In Boggs’s first look at pro ball, he was decent albeit not great for short season New Jersey; striking out 19.6% of the batters he faced while walking 7.7%. In 71.2 innings, he allowed 77 hits, having a .355 BABIP. At age 22 he jumped a level and started his season at Palm Beach. He started in 27 games, throwing 145 innings. His strikeout rate jumped slightly, fanning 19.9% of his total batters faced, while his walk rate climbed up .3% as well. He was still rather hittable, yielding 153 hits for a .337 BABIP. With high BABIPs in college and now a season and a half in the pros, it appeared to me at least that Boggs wasn’t just unlucky; he was easy to hit. In my last write up about Boggs I wasn’t all that optimistic he could make the jump successfully to AA. His strikeout rate was decent and his walk rate was acceptable, I guess I just thought some of those hits he was allowing would start going for extra bases in a hitter’s park and in a hitter’s league.

Boggs proved me wrong. His HR/Air doubled from 3% to 6%, which isn’t a bad rate. He increased his ground ball rate to 51% from 46%. On the negative, his walk rate jumped up a full % point from 8% to 9% and his K% went down to 17% from 19%. His FIP was nearly a full run higher at 4.38 from 3.32. So some of the things I feared would happen did, but not at all on the level I expected. His BABIP went down to from .337 to .326, thanks in part to a solid Springfield defense. He threw 152.1 innings this past season.

The goods

According to a recent report from Keith Law from the Arizona Fall League, Boggs throws in the 93-96 MPH range, and has touched 97. I take it he’s dial it up a bit since he’s only throwing 3 innings or so at a time. Reports I’ve heard have him 90-93, with “heavy, boring sink”. Per Law (and numerous others), his breaking stuff is decent but inconsistent at times, leaving him without a true out pitch. And of course…wait for it…he’s developing a change up, but it’s still a work in progress. I think him not pitching a ton of innings in college has worked for him rather then against him, as he’s made all of his starts without a hitch. He threw only 58 innings in college and had a 6.17 ERA, so what he’s been able to learn and do in two years is pretty outstanding. The fact that he’s pitching in the AFL tells us he’s hot on the Cardinals radar.

The future

I’ve thought for sometime that he is a future Jason Marquis. Some of you may not like the sounds of that, but I see the similarities and I don’t think it’s necessarily a horrible thing. He’ll make all his starts and give you 6 innings or so per start. Like Marquis, he’s mostly just a fastball pitcher with a lack of a good secondary offering. But if his velocity is 93-96, well, then I would expect him to do quite a bit better then the Jason the goat. And he comes sans the hardheadedness.

I see him as a 5-6 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.9-1.2 HR/9, 44-50% ground ball rate type of pitcher, someone who posts an ERA around 4.40 to 5.00 per season, and someone who could have a career year or two and earn a lot of money down the road. He should pitch most of his season in AAA, but could earn a spot start or two this upcoming year. He should be a part of the rotation by 2009.

When you think about the millions that teams throw at the Marquises, Suppans, and Pineiros of the world, it’ll be nice to have a homegrown arm coming up in the near future. He may not be spectacular, but league average or a little worse has a high cost these days. He should free up some payroll for the Birds to address some more immediate needs come the winter of ‘08. Then again, on the downside he could end up throwing in middle relief.