Prospect Profile: Allen Craig
Drafted out of California, Allen Craig has been on the fast track in the Cardinal’s farm system. An 8th round pick who signed for a paltry $15,000. A member of the 2002 US Junior National team (along with luminaries like Ian Kennedy, Chad Billingsley and Lastings Milledge), Craig had several injury setbacks during his college career. The Cardinals asked him to lose some weight entering this season and he reported to camp having lost 10-15 pounds after a new conditioning program. He went on to have a breakout year, cementing himself in the top 20 Cardinal prospects.
The Stats
Craig played the remainder of the 2006 season with the Cardinals former short season affiliate team State College. The right-handed hitting Craig was placed at 3B and hit .256/.318/.398. The isolated power is just shy of the .150-pt cutoff used in the Visualizing Hitters graphs but for a first go at pro baseball, the numbers aren’t terrible for someone getting re-acclimated to a wood bat and suffering from knee problems during the year. While he played SS in college, Craig’s range wasn’t sufficient to play there moving forward. Corner infielders have a higher offensive threshold requirement and Craig wasn’t putting up numbers that would support an average defensive 3B.
Craig opened up eyes this year beginning at Palm Beach in his age 23 season. Putting up a monster April by batting .382/.402/.663 with 6 HRs in 89 ABs. He had more HRs than walks (3) that month. May took some adjustments as his BABIP fell to more reasonable levels and his strikeout rates rose to dangerous levels. As a power hitter with a slightly long swing, Craig will probably strike out more than average. In July, he was placed on the DL with lower back spasms that held him to just 33 PAs for the month. He finished with a strong August hitting 4 HRs and an ISO over .200.
For 2007, Craig posted solid peripheral statistics across the board. He had 472 PAs at Palm Beach, which is a large enough sample to give us a good idea of where his talent level is. His K% is completely acceptable for a power hitter at roughly 17%. His plate discipline took a step forward from 2006 helping to make him a more complete offensive player. He posted a .370 OBP on the year through a combination of hitting for average and walking in 8% of his PAs. Craig should be able to sustain his batting average as he laces line drives at an above average rate (and one that should support his slightly high BABIP).
One thing that may have gotten overlooked was his struggles at his home stadium. While the Florida State League is considered a pitcher’s league all around, Craig did quite well away from the Palm Beach stadium. He slugged .100pts higher with a better walk rate and strikeout rate on the road. While his overall rate stats for the year (.312/.370/.530) are quite good, it’s possible that he could really tee off next year spending a full season at Hammonds Field in Springfield.
The Question
Craig’s bat is good but it plays much better at 3B than it would at 1B. He’d be an above average 3B prospect but just an average 1B one, which begs the question “Can he stay at 3B defensively?”. And the answer is, I don’t know. He’s got the work ethic to improve defensively and the Cardinals should have both the patience and the time to leave him at 3B in the minors. There’s no one besides some organizational players that are ahead of him at Springfield and Memphis. Time is going to tell but if he can’t stick at 3B it has some serious implications for his future.
The Future
It’s hard to pinpoint his prospect path because of the defensive issues. Right now, a single good year (even coupled with good reviews from scouts) leads me to believe that he’s more of a bench player like Scott Spiezio is currently than an everyday 3B. I’m a huge fan of him on a visceral level but as a realistic evaluator his bat isn’t going to hold up for an everyday 1B. I have hopes that the offense continues and the defensive woes get fixed (can we have Scott Rolen visit with Craig for a while maybe?) then he could make his way as a starter at 3B during his peak years, say ages 26-30. He’s not a superstar talent like Colby Rasmus but he’s also a better bet to make the bigs right now than Tyler Greene. Along with guys like Mark Hamilton and Joe Mather, he’s in that second tier of Cardinal prospects that are good but not great prospects with some questions remaining.
Filed under: Allen Craig, prospect profiles
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Good write-up. I agree with the thought that the group including Hamilton and Mather are intriguing. I suspect though that Craig has the best chance of playing for the cards, as I think Mather and Hamilton are trade bait.
Something I was wondering, in a chat not long ago someone mention that the Cards farm system had moved into the midle of the pack as far as talent. Is there anyplace that has looked at minor league rankings vs future performance. I would suspect that minor league rankings don’t lend themselves to world series wins, but they could be indicative to future dollars spent per win. Wondering if anyone has seen anything…
I really like craig, I remember each day checking his stats after that monster month in april. i hope he progesses and can become more than a bench player. If not I would wait till he hits a hot streak again and incorporate him in a trade. Heck, he is probably at his high end right now. let’s trade him with reyes for someone.
I personally like Craig, I just don’t know what kind of MLB career he really has. He would clearly be a throw in player for a trade, not a center or secondary piece. His defense is severly limited, history of injury problems, and his offensive consistency is pretty lacking of a premium prospect. I think he is more talented than the numbers he has put up. To me I really think he needs that monster year in Springfield to stay on the radar or he will lay victim to becoming an afterthought.
Chris - if he is more talented than the numbers he put than he has to be considered a valuable prospect (much more than a throw in). His numbers for PB were pretty awesome. My guess is that if you park adjusted them for Springfield they’d be off the charts. His offensive consistency this year was pretty good as he was solid all year. I think its a little early to call him injury prone (he really had no injury this year - only back spasms). If he continue shis current trajectory, only his defense (and resulting lack of position) will hold him back.