Future Redbirds

The Cardinals have been waiting for Joe Mather to break out a while and this past season their patience has paid off.

Background

Joe Mather was selected in the 3rd round of the 2001 draft out of a high school in Phoenix, originally as a shortstop. He hit 17 homers as a high school senior, enough to impress the Cardinals into taking him as the 104th overall pick. As a 6 foot 4 inch 18 year old, it was obvious he wasn’t going to stick as a shortstop so he moved to third base. Baseball America liked the pick, saying Mather was raw but would likely hit for average and power down the road. Apparently way down the road. While we’re looking back at the 2001 draft, where were the Cardinals when it came to Ryan Howard? Howard was in their own backyard playing for Southwest Missouri, and he wasn’t taken until #140. I guess they just had to have Josh Brey, who never made it past A ball. It’s funny how this stuff works out sometimes.

Performance

It took Mather a little over three seasons to prove he was ready to play for a full season team. In 2004 Mather hit .253/.333/.432 over 270 plate appearances for the Midwest League Peoria Chiefs as a 22 year old. I suppose if you think of him as a college player in his first season of pro ball, that ain‘t half bad, but it still left much to be desired.  In 2005, he started back in A ball, this time with the Swing. He hit just .220/.295./.440 in 237 plate appearances, but those numbers are depressed by an awfully low BABIP, .245. He was promoted to Palm Beach mid season and didn’t embarrass himself, hitting .275/.342/.475 in 226 PA’s. At each level he was striking out less and less while increasing in his power production.  Mather repeated A+ again in 2006. He hit .269/.327/.456 in 492 PA’s with a 42% extra base hit rate. Not bad numbers in the Florida State League, but still nothing to really write home about for a 24 year old. Then as we all know, Mather went nuts in AA this past season, hitting .303/.386/.607 in 278 plate appearances. His .304 ISO is enough to get excited about, but his plate discipline was probably equally as exciting. He walked in 12.6% of his PA’s while striking out in just 11.5%. Moving up to Memphis, Mather went back to his career averages, hitting .241/.326/.443. His BABIP was just .254. Some of that was a 6% drop in his line drive rate, and some of that is probably bad luck.

Abilities

Mather’s greatest strength is his power. His ability to hit for average is average based on his contact rates (around 83%) but he really broke out in AA, with contact rate of 88.5%. While he has only hit .254 over his career, some of that was overcoming the learning curve, some of that you can blame on ballpark, some of that has been low BABIPs, ie tough luck. He seems like a .270, .280ish type of hitter to me. His plate discipline was outstanding in AA with a 1.10 BB/K ratio, but when you look at the big picture he’s been so-so, with a .40 BB/K rate. Scouting reports I’ve read state that his arm is decent and he can play acceptably enough in the corners, though he’s not going to win any gold gloves. Here’s a video of his swing, if you’d like to take a gander:

The future

Mather is hard to get a clear read on.  I envision him as a 4th outfielder, or part of a decent platoon.  What he did in AA could be the very peak of what he’s capable of, it has been out of line with what he’s done the rest of his career. It’s a little bit of a stretch to see him become the everyday RF unless he really fully blossoms. 234 at bats in AA isn’t enough sample, I need more proof that he’s really made the needed adjustments to be an effective major leaguer.