Finally, BA gets to the cache of Cardinal prospects. Springfield was the hotbed for redbird talent and hopefully we can look back on this group in a few years as the force that revitalized the big league team. The Cardinals walk away with no less than 5 players on this top 20 list and I’ll recap them in reverse order (not that you should be in particular suspense about who was the best).
Coming in at number 20, Big Joe Mather who was promoted to Memphis towards the end of the season wraps up the tail end of the list. He really is that rare developmental story, which as BA puts it “every team dreams about”. Mather had never really show a great deal of substance despite his flashes of potential but he put things together in a big way this year at Springfield posting a .303/.387/.607 line with 18 HRs in 234 ABs. According to BA, being able to play RF and 1B makes him “versatile in the field”. This is crappy fluff writing because virtually anyone outside of a handful of players can play 1B. Being able to man RF is something, but let’s not sing these praises of versatility. Mather should find himself on the 40-man roster this offseason but he’s more likely to have a career as a good bench player than an everyday starter at this point.
One of my favorite prospects, Bryan Anderson, ranked 17th in the league despite having a somewhat disappointing statistical year at .298/.350/.388 with a meager 6 HRs. He was fantastic in April slugging .582 with a .250 ISO but things tailed off rather quickly into the summer heat. Given the move from pitcher friendly John O’Donnell Stadium to hitter friendly Hammonds Field, his statiscal step backwards has me a little worried although not ready to walk away from his potential. “Scouts and managers liked his uppercut swing and think he can consistently hit around .300 with at least gap power.” We continue to hear this gap power comment, and I believe it, but I’m waiting for it to really arrive. And as always let’s conclude with the caveat about his defense at catcher where he “struggled to transfer the ball and make accurate throws”. I’ll save my tirade on catcher defense for another day. . .
The best pitching prospect in the farm system (and the one with elbow problems) Jaime Garcia comes in at number 12. I make no claim to medical expertise but I can’t help cringing when I hear that he was shut down and diagnosed with a “strained ligament” in his elbow. Garcia features two above average pitches with a fastball sitting “in the low 90s with good life” and a curveball that has “power downer action” and is “a legitimate out pitch”. BA attributes the rise in walk rate to elbow discomfort. This is either 1) false 2) alarming or 3) not visible above the noise in his statistics. He basically had poor command every month except for June. If 1) is true, then we have another pitcher struggling with command. If 2) then the stats would indicate the discomfort was going on for much of the season but he wasn’t shut down till July. While I’m partial to number 1, I can’t claim that command issues caused by elbow problems would necessarily be visible in monthly breakdowns of his walk rate. Let’s hope that Garcia gets it back on track next year.
While he ranks ahead of Garcia, I don’t think you can really dispute the value difference between a mid-rotation starter and a good reliever. Chirs Perez, walk rate and all, come in at #11 in the top 20. With accolades like “best reliever in the league”, Perez has been fast tracked to the majors from the 1st supplemental round of the 2006 draft to Memphis this past year. If he start the season in St. Louis, then he should be up no later than midseason. His mid-90s fastball has “good sink” and he has a power slider for an “effective weapon against righthanders”. While the walk rate doubles against lefties, they still managed a measely 4 singles in 45 ABs against him in Springfield while striking out more frequently. I suspect that he tries to backdoor the slider against lefties and winds up leaving it outside creating the walks. Still, Perez should be a cheap piece to the STL bullpen for years to come and the potential is there for him to step into the closer’s role in the near future.
Lastly, and it should come as little surprise, Colby Rasmus completes the Texas League list of top 20 prospects. He ranks #1 in the entire league. When we discuss the Cardinals system, it’s easy to say that Rasmus is the number 1 prospect and continue down the list but that belies just how fantastic a prospect he is. A “legitimate five-tool player” Rasmus features the combination of offensive talents combined with speed and above average defense at a premium defensive position that teams drool over. BA notes that he “should be able to slot into the big league lineup wherever the Cardinals need him” but I think he’s miscast as a leadoff hitter. While he has the OBP to succeed in that spot, his power numbers would urge me to put him in the 2nd slot of the order with a player in front of him that has fewer secondary skills (think a Jarrett Hoffpauir or Jon Jay who get on base very well but don’t hit for power). “The best defensive outfielder in the league” is not a title to be overlooked in a spacious CF like Busch III. Combined with “good range” and a “strong, accurate arm”, Colby is without a doubt the future of the Cardinals’ centerfield.
(Jarrett Hoffpauir and Jason Motte come to mind as a pair of players who also had excellent years in Springfield but weren’t good enough to make the list in this talented league.)
Filed under: Bryan Anderson, Chris Perez, Colby Rasmus, Jaime Garcia, Joe Mather
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
Call up Colby! Trade Dunc/Rick! Hitting Colby in front of Albert gives me a euphoric feel.
Credit to fewgood for posting this at the Cards Talk thread:
ERIK EDIT. This is COPYRIGHTED MATERIAL! I’m not so sure we should be posting this, especially the enormous amount of it, so sorry but I have to pull it down. I really don’t want to get sued. Hope you can understand.
azru, i know anderson moved to a much more hitter friendly environment, but you seem to discount the big leap from low-A to AA. i think his numbers are pretty impressive considering the jump, the fact that he was the 2nd youngest regular in AA, and the heavy burden of being an everyday catcher in the texas league heat.
I’m still high on Anderson. I still think he’s going to be better than Molina in the very near future but his numbers weren’t anything to shout about. Yes, he’s still very young and I recognize that catching takes a huge toll.
I didn’t mean to imply that I’m not an Anderson fan/believer but his season was pretty unspectacular imo.
i didn’t mean that he had a great year, but you talked about how he went from a pitching park to a hitting park and his numbers went down without even mentioning the fact that he skipped a level. do you not think that is a factor?
You want to see improvement from prospects. At best, Anderson held par this year offensively. His numbers are down across the board. I’m fully aware that he skipped a level but he didn’t even improve over the course of the year from month to month.
I find it really exciting that the Cards listed 5 players in this league, regardless of how the fact that we may have expected a little more slugging from Anderson. The fact that we had by my count at least 3 players that could provide an arguement for being snubbed (Hoff, Martinez, Motte). To be honest I was shocked that Mather made the list (albeit 20) and Martinez did not. I really think that Martinez really stood out and at a premium position.
As for trading Duncan or Rick Ankiel and moving Rasmus to the lineup…I’m not so sure that is a good idea. Both Duncan and Ankiel could provide the Cards with 25-35 home run production for the next 6-8 years, with Ankiel providing above average defense and a crazy cannon that probably saves 20 or more runs a season (counting guys that don’t attempt to run home or advance that normally would). I would say keep both of them, unless the Cards sign a RH batting power hitter for either corner. Let Rasmus season another year in Memphis and once Edmonds contract/retirement hits then he gets the everyday job. Skip/Ludwick would be serviceable in the games Edmonds doesn’t play.
Garcia’s elbow concerns do worry me. I do think that how the Cards treat him next year will be indicative of how serious they may be. No organization is going to throw out their best starting pitching prospect if they have any inclination that his elbow could be a major issue. I think they may have just played it overly cautious this past season as to he was succeeding at a level higher than his age group anyway. If the minor league seasons start and he isn’t pitching I think that will be a huge red flag.
Anderson’s struggles at Springfield are not that concerning to me. As previously mentioned he did make a big jump and was one of the youngest players at AA. Most players don’t develop their gap power until 23-24, not all players are Pujols or Rasmus. Anderson will develop that power just by his stroke and ability to get the bat through the zone. My feeling is that he will slugg considerably better next year at AA. His defense is the caveot that will keep him blocked by Molina. Unless he develops into a .300 avg and 15 HR guy I don’t see how you can move him ahead of the best defensive catcher in all of baseball (who is still REALLY young too). I think the likelihood of him remaining a Cardinal is slim as he most likely will end up being traded for pitching, unless Mortenson, Garcia, Herron, Ottavino end up being MLB ready quickly.
Isn’t Anderson holding par in AA at his age after never having played above low-A improving?
i think so, if someone would have told me at this point last year that anderson would skip high-A, go straight to springfield, and hit .300 i would have said wow what a season. well he did that, and people are thinking his prospect status has taken a hit? i think those people had unrealistic expectations.
if you think anderson had a bad year, jarrod saltalamacchia hit .230/.353/.380 in his first go round in AA last year and he was a year older and had a full season at high-A under his belt. he went out and hit .266/.310/.422 in the majors this year. anderson hit .298/.350/.380. i think he is right on pace.
Sorry for posting the q&a but I had seen it posted other places before didn’t know it was copyrighted since I just copied it from another forum. Anyway, game is underway in AFL:
Boggs starting, Hoff batting second at 2B, Mather 4th at DH.
No prob at all hugo. I wish i could post it, i really really do. At times i will quote stuff off of ba or bp, but if it’s subscriber only content then it’s actually stealing to post it.
We easily (and maybe should have had) 3 more on the list. Martinez had a full 0.50 OPS over Sean Rodriguez who made the list at the same position and is a Martinez is a year younger. Hoffpauir had a full .070 OPS advantage over Antonnelli and Duran at the same positions (Hoff even played more games at AA than Antonelli ) The only thing in their favor is Antonneli is 2 years younger and Geer is one year younger. Walters pitched better than at least 3 of the RH pitchers on the list at the same age or younger.
I think Martinez is over-rated among Cardinal prospects. He’s Aaron Miles with a little extra pop and a touch better defensively. He’s extremely dependent on his AVG.