(If you’d like to read about the Mesa Solar Sox, the Cardinal’s Arizona Fall League team, Goldstein has a look at the team with brief mention of Joe Mather and Jarrett Hoffpauir.)Another Cardinal affiliate, Palm Beach, gets it’s Baseball America top 20 list revealed today. The news isn’t good. The Cardinals only garner a single spot in the top 20 at #15 Mr. Adam Ottavino. I’m higher on Ottavino than most prospect evaluators but you’ll still hear a range of where people think he’ll end up from mid-rotation starter (Kevin Goldstein) to middle-reliever (Keith Law). I’m more with Goldstein on this but Ottavino didn’t really help my case this year.
Frankly, I could have written BA’s scouting report on him. It’s extremely bland and generic. He “relies on his 92-93 mph fastball” with an above average slider. His “command isn’t very polished” (duh.) but the movement on his fastball makes up for his lack of control to a degree. He also has a fringe change-up and curveball that aren’t major league quality pitches. There are questions about whether he can throw the slider “consistently for strikes” and if not will “more advanced players lay off of it”. And then BA hedges it’s bets by saying that he may end up a reliever (frankly, almost any pitching prospect could end up a reliever so this is largely meaningless.)
Ottavino’s command is what worries me. His fastball and slider are good enough that if he can find some command he wouldn’t have to worry much about the other pitches. That’s all I will say about him now as he’s slated for a prospect profile in the future. Allen Craig (a personal favorite of mine), Mark Hamilton and Eddie Degerman are the other “names” for the Cardinals who spent significant time in the FSL this year. None of them made the top 20 and while that doesn’t necessarily surprise me, it is mildly disheartening.
Filed under: Adam Ottavino
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
i don’t see how craig doesn’t make it, someone ask them in the chat what was up with that snub. i saw over there that bryan anderson has been added to team usa along with rasmus and perez. what’s also funny is that ott seemed rather pleased with his change up in his recent interview at veb, and his year to year splits reveal he’s somehow dominated lefties, when they used to “racky tack” him, as shannon would say. my guess was the change had to be the factor there. i wonder how much these ba guys see players, and how many coaches, scouts and managers they really talk to sometime. BA–indespensible yet maddeningly vague at times.
Here are the questions that were asked about the cardinals:
Q: Carlos from Bronx NY asks:
Is the FSL one of the leagues stacked with the Best Prospects? because I saw Ottavino up to 99mph and find it hard to beleive that there are 14 better prospects then him.
A: J.J. Cooper: A reminder that being ranked is actually an honor, not a slight. Ottavino has some control problems, but when he was on, his combination of a heavy running fastball and slider was one of the better two-pitch combos in the league. He’s really trying to refine his control more than his command at this point, as he’s sometimes effective just aiming toward the middle of the plate and letting his natural movement try to paint the corners.
Q: Dan from St. Louis asks:
Were any other Cardinals close to making the list? I know Allan Craig and Mark Hamilton both had very good seasons.
A: J.J. Cooper: Craig has legit power, and he’s not a sellout pull power guy, as he can work the ball to all fields and he had a short compact swing. There’s some debate about whether he can stay at third, if not he’ll need all of his power to make it as a first baseman, but he’s a sleeper to keep an eye on, and he was part of that tier of players from 11-35. Hamilton wasn’t. He has decent power and moves well over at first base, but his swing is a long one that he needs to shorten up.
Q: Jerred Gracey from York, Pa asks:
Are there Cardinal pitchers who might have had a down year, but still have some upside?
A: J.J. Cooper: We’ve already covered Ottavino, but I’ll also mention Tyler Norrick as well. Norrick’s stuff is fringy, but some managers believed he’ll be a big leaguer as his absolute lack of fear and his willingness to attack hitters means he can have success if he keeps the ball down.
Personally, I have never liked BA. I think they are verrry biased, they love kids from big time schools and if you’re not from one then you get over looked. Looking at the numbers of the kids on the list it boggles me. I don’t understand how Craig didn’t make it. I also think that Norrick should have got consideration and Ottavino should have been higher up on the list.
Thanks for the chat quote cardsfan1. I think it’s important to remember that BA places an emphasis on scouting and while they don’t ignore statistics, they aren’t a site that lives and breathes them and that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
Tyler Norrick doesn’t strike me as a prospect that I would have chosen from the FSL. His BABIP was low for the season (.267) and he has some command issues as well. He’s another prospect who probably will be a 5th starter or reliever if he makes it to the majors.
I suspected defense was why Craig failed to make the list. I’m not sure he has enough offense to make it if he has to move to first. Let’s hope he hones his skill at the hot corner.
why does craig have to move to first if he can’t play third? he was a college shortstop, he has to be athletic enough to play left. i still think he will improve enough defensively to stick at third. if oquendo is still around next spring he should be able to straighten him out. i have said it before and i’ll say it again. allen craig is the next garrett atkins. he will hit .280 with 25 homers and play below average defense.
I think the Cards have an overload of OFs, so thats why they haven’t mentioned Craig moving there.
Craig doesn’t strike me as the most mobile of fielders. I don’t think that a move to the outfield would make a sincere difference. (Would moving Miggy to LF really improve his fielding?) It’s a wait and see kind of situation since his allegedly poor defense doesn’t appear to be affecting his offense so there’s little reason not to just leave him at third where the Cardinals don’t have any fast tracked prospects.