Baseball America continues pumping out the scouting reports. The Midwest League is home to the Swing of Quad Cities in low-Class A. They pay in a pitchers park and last year featured a number of the Cardinals top prospects including Rasmus and Anderson. The Swing only captured a single spot on the MWL top 20 list this season with Tyler Herron coming in at #11. Herron obviously had a breakout season posting his highest K rate coupled with an exceptional BB rate and groundball tendencies (that’s kind of the complete package, no?).
Baseball America considered him the best prospect on a “deep Quad Cities staff”. I put that in quotes because I’m not particularly impressed with the QC staff this year. BA did like Herron over Kenny Maiques, PJ Walters and Brad Furnish. I’m a Kenny Maiques fan in terms of his pure stuff but I’ll be interested to see how he does when he advances next season.
Back to Herron. Utilizing a fastball, change-up and curveball that all project as “average or better”, Herron “maintained low-90s velocity” througout the season. Scouts were split on his fastball and whether it was too straight or had decent movement. There’s still some projectability in Herron, who at age 20, could still “add more strength to his frame”. Also, something that I haven’t noticed before in very many scouting reports is the note that Herron maintains his stuff even from the stretch using a “quick slide step”.
Jim Callis had a chat about the list — here are his comments:
Jerred Gracey from York, Pa asks:
Were there any Cardinals who didn’t make the list to get excited about?Jim Callis: Reliever Kenny Maiques really interests me, as a guy with a tough fastball-slider combo. I think he can help the Cardinals in the next couple of years, and he was one of the guys who just missed making the list. Brandon Buckman and Steven Hill had good offensive years but both were quite old for the MWL and I want to see them at higher levels. There were some more good pitches on Quad City, such as Brad Furnish, P.J. Walters and Eddie Degerman.
That’s the exact answer that I expected on Buckman despite him being one of my favorite prospects (even if I am unsure he’ll make it to the majors). Both Buckman and Hill displayed aggresive approaches at the plate without a lot of discipline (read: walks) and considerable power. That doesn’t always translate well as they face better pitching in the high minors. We’ve discussed Walters here numerous times. Degerman is probably destined for the pen and I wasn’t a fan of Furnish when I saw him in person. I’m a real believer in Kenny Maiques who had wicked movement on his fastball the times I saw him.
Andy from Iowa City asks:
Cards fans have been told that Daryl Jones is a potential 5-tool player, but we are stil waiting for him to produce. I watched him play a few times this year and he looks better than in 2006. He seems to have the athleticism, but he occasionally has some lackadaisical at-bats. What do scouts think of him at this point?Jim Callis: He has a lot of tools but still looks lost at the plate. He’s still young at 20 but has so far to go. Guys are cooling on him.
Clock’s tickin’ Daryl. Get your tools together and put up some numbers please.
Ben from Baltimore asks:
How do you feel about Steve Hill from Swing of the Quad Cities? Does he have a future as a catcher?Jim Callis: The power intrigues me. He’s not really a catcher, though he has played there some during college and sparingly as a pro. He’s much more of a guy who would be a backup first basemanoutfielder and a third catcher than he is a regular catcher.
We all know how Azru feels about prospects confined to the right side of the defensive spectrum. Let’s hope Hill can at least play a passable LF. That being said, I’m not particularly high on him as a prospect.
Filed under: Tyler Herron
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I really think it is a travesty that Furnish was not on the Top 20 list. His “stuff” was the best on the Quad City staff. Furnish dominated at Quad Cities, 2.42ERA, .191 baa, 76K’s in 81IP all from the left side. Is a 90-93 FB and a wicked curve not enough along with a plus change to get a little press? As the 54th overall pick in the 2006 draft, Brad will reach St Louis by 2008 at the latest… Yes, I am Brad’s agent, but my “opinions” are based on what the “brass” of the Cards has shared with me! Thanks
Jonathan msmsports.net
I’ve seen Furnish, I actually liked what I saw. He does have a good breaking ball and a decent fastball, but he pitches up way too much and I can’t see him getting away with that stuff past A ball. His precipitous decline in his K rate and hike in his walk rate upon being called up to Palm Beach was disconcerting. I appreciate your strong feelings for your client Jonathan, and I can’t say I’m not rooting for Furnish. I can see his upside, but he does have a few things to work on.
This must be a pretty good league if Herron is only #11.
I really think Furnish should have made the list as well, but I don’t see how he can possibly make it on STL by end of ‘08. There are just too many pitchers ahead of him in the Cards system alone, much less what players the Cards could bring in from the outside. Obviously the agent would know better than I would, but I see him going to Springfield next year for the entire year and then he could get a shot at the rotation in ‘09 and if he doesn’t make it Memphis bound.
I do wish that Herron would have cracked the Top 10. He’s talented enough to have earned it.
Chris - There isn’t a prospect ahead of Herron that I think is significantly worse besides possibly Stubbs @ #10. I like Herron but I’m not as high on him as a lot of other people here abouts seem to be.
Jonathan - Thanks for stopping by. If Brandon Webb (another of your clients) can make it to St. Louis by 2008 I’ll be thrilled. If Furnish makes it by 2008, I’ll be shocked.
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those other people here abouts would be me
i’ve seen him twice, the guy is only in his third year of pitching and he put up great numbers. he has three pitches now that are average to above average and great control…and he can bend a spoon with his mind…honestly, i like him better then any pitcher in the system outside of garcia.
I really don’t see how you can say that Furnish will be in the majors by 2008 at the latest. He did really well in the MWL but really didn’t prove himself in the FSL. I would venture to say that he will start out repeating the FSL next season. There are a lot of pitching prospects ranked ahead of Furnish in the system. I saw Furnish pitch a fair amount this summer and I think he has good stuff, but I think its a little ridiculous to say that 2008 is the latest he will be in the majors.
On a side note, in my opinion, I really don’t think this is the place for an agent to be posting about their clients. And with the statements made (i.e ‘08 call-up) you are only setting your client up for ridicule.
cardsfan1–if you can’t be confident in your own clients then who can you be confident in? jonathan is welcome to brag on his clients if he wants to. feel free to laugh all you want if furnish doesn’t make it, but i don’t think he crossed the line by posting his feelings here.
I won’t laugh if Furnish doesn’t make it, I hope he does. I hope all the players in the minor leagues achieve their dreams. I was just saying that by saying furnish is going to be in the majors next year is opening him up to ridicule. And he should be confident in his players, if he wasn’t I would assume he wouldn’t be representing them. I was just stating my opinions, no one has to agree with me. I am around agents all the time and I just couldn’t imagine them posting on fan forums. Could you see Scott Boris writing about arod or any of his other clients here?
I guess not, but not everyone is Scott Boras. The guy does represent Brandon Webb, so he’s doing something right. I like hearing their side of things. To be honest, it’s sort of flattering knowing they are reading!
It should be…and just an fyi most of the cards minor league players read this site too.
Personally, I like hearing from a guy’s representative’s perspective. Yes, you’re going to get some positive spin, but this is still an individual placed on the inside of some discussions that many of us would love to be part of. It’s an interesting take, in my opinion.
As to Furnish personally, I would tend to agree with Jonathan as far as his stuff, but disagree as far as an ETA. Furnish does have very good stuff for a lefthander; his fastball seems to be one of those that is much more effective when it’s up. Very nice ride letter high, seems a little straighter when it’s down. I think he’ll have a hard time cracking the majors with this organisation, though, particularly if we see the same on field coaching staff back. He’s young, confident, and has fly ball tendencies. I believe that’s what is commonly known as strikes one, two and three. Personally, though, I would be excited to see him get a shot at AA next season and prove he’s ready to be talked about as a top notch prospect.
Also, I think that part of the reason BA didn’t put him in their top 20 is because of his age. He’s not terribly old, but he’s, what, about 22? That’s about a year, maybe a bit more, old for the league. I don’t think it really matters that much with pitchers, as their developmental curves are much less predictable and linear than positional players, but Baseball America is an org. that puts most of their emphasis on upside. The possible superstars always get bigger ratings than the solid, predictable guy. Not to say that related specifically to Furnish; I just mean that, in addition to being a bit too worried about pitchers coming up with a changeup, BA also puts a lot of emphasis on how old a player is, relative to their league. As I said earlier, I’m not sure it’s quite as useful when it comes to pitchers, but it’s still a big part of their MO.
Brett Anderson who was ranked Number 3 on the list was taken one spot after Furnish. The guy ranked right behind Herron, Omar Pavedo, is one of the most impressive pitchers I saw all summer. The kid is 19 with super smooth mechanics. So Herron being ranked ahead of him but not making the top 10 is not the end of the world. Take the time to go back an look at last year’s rankings. If you do, you will see that these rankings are a big crap shoot.
Good point Whiteyball. It is a major crapshoot and there are always guys who start out off the radar screen of scouts and BA that end up being in the majors and producing.
Trust me a lot of agents may not post directly using their name on a fan forum, but agents DO always put information out there. How do you think that A-Rod to the Cubs with a package deal for him to get ownership after he’s done playing got out there? It is naive to think that agents aren’t using all types of media to get information out there, especially someone like Scott Boras. Agents are in the business of marketing their client, which can provide a multitude of advantages for their agency and the client themselves. What better place to market your minor league client than at a website with dedicated fans that follow minor league players. I personally love that Furnish’s agent posted what he did. I would love it if he posted more about Furnish, especially what the Cardinals told him he had to do to make it to the Cards by the end of 08. Agents get a lot more inside information about what the club wants the player to improve on and their scheduled track than anyone else here, so I say post away Jonathan and other agents.
Theres no way Furnish should have made this list. This is kind of unfair way to look at it, but look at the 20th ranked prospect on this list, Tyler Robertson. Kid was absolutely sick this season. To me Robertson and even Cahill were highly underrated on this list, and I would probably take both over Herron. Thats no knock on Herron though, to me these lists are pretty poorly made, but the info that comes with them is what I look at and what matters to me. As far as more on Furnish’s ETA, well he has to learn to do good in High A before even thinking about the bigs leagues, highly highly doubt he see’s St. Louis anytime in 2008.
Hey gang, Jonathan here.. Brad’s agent. First let me say, I 100% ENJOYED the comments everyone left when I posted on the “top 20″ prospect list. I am just a regular guy who started with nothing and became an agent who LOVES reading about, working hard for and supporting his clients. The most “talked about” comment I made was Brad reaching St . Louis by 2008. Please let me clarify. The “2008 call” would be September at best, and yes, 2009 IS more likely. Let me break down “Brad” from what I “hear” from the team, etc. First, Brad just had SURGERY, that was the reason for Palm Beach issues. He could not straigten his arm fully the whole time he was there. THE GOOD NEWS, he will be throwing off the mound in 5 weeks and ready for spring. The ulnar nerve was sitting on the elbow and needed to be moved. Dr. Paletta said that he found a bone spur which also had caused problems and that is now gone. Brad sits at 91, touching 94-95 on his fastball. he pitches “up” in the zone in certain counts (0-2, 1-2) a bunch. His curve ball is “over the top” (and nasty)and his change-up is improving. I and Brad both were not big fans of the “piggy back” system in QC as Brad would often be “rolling” and then out he came. Starting, the preparation, using all your pitches, etc is completely differnt then relieving. It was an experience, but we are glad it is over. My gut feeling, Brad’s chance to start in Palm Beach (60%), Springfield (40%). A healthy, starting every five days Furnish will move “quickly” in the words of many. Brad has already caught the eye of Duncan, which is saying something also. Again, thank for your many comments. Just a little info… MANY agents “blog” and “post” and don’t use their real names. I always use my “real name” b/c it gives us all a chance to “talk shop” with authenticity! My website is msmsports.net. Call or email anytime and thanks for supporting Furnish. He really is a GREAT kid who happens to also be a hard-throwing lefty!!
thanks for the explanation jonathan. i didn’t think just one level up would’ve proved to be such a challenge, glad he’s recovering well. really appreciate your input, we’ll be keeping a close eye on him for sure.
I have no problem with agents/representatives/family members posting as long as they give full disclosure as Jonathan did.
I’m glad you approve, cariocacardinal.
I’m glad you’re glad that Cariocacardinal approves, Azruavatar. Buy-in from the community on a web site is a good thing, no?
I don’t think an agent is obligated to disclose who they are when commenting. If they aren’t convincing, I won’t listen to them anyway.
The wording of the comment irked me — not a lot but enough to garner a tongue in cheek response.
I want to thank you Jonathan for you comments… at least you have a good idea of what you are talking about. Let’s face it… most of the people who post on these sites are middle-aged men who only dream of having played pro ball with no real “first-hand” experience. No one else seems to have known about Brad’s arm problems but they all had plenty to say about his performance. I would love an update on Webb. I believe he had some arm issues as well.