New York-Penn League Top 20
[Quick aside -- there's a BP chat with prospect guru Kevin Goldstein at noon central time today for those of you that would like to ask him questions. Baseball America's Aaron Fitt will have a chat at 1:30pm central about the NYP Top 20 for BA subscribers.]
Baseball America continues their march through the minors. This time they cover the New York-Penn League which includes the Batavia Muckdogs. The roster for the Muckdogs wasn’t particularly loaded as the Cardinals only garnered one of the Top 20 slots in BA’s list. Jess Todd was ranked 13th in the league.
After throwing 93 innings at college this spring, apparently Todd was working through some arm fatigue and had lost 3-4mph off his fastball which typically sits in the low 90s. Despite that he struck out 69 in 58 IP, which BA merits to the fact that his fastball “cuts and sinks and he throws it for strikes”. He compliments the fastball with a slider and a changeup (still needs refinement). As we’ve mentioned here previously, a lot of people think that Todd’s ticket to the majors is as a reliever with his fastball/slider combination. Given his small frame (under 6′), Todd doesn’t fit the typical idea of a durable build for a starting pitcher. BA notes his “fierce competitive streak” that would be helpful for late-inning roles should he make that transition.
Statistically, Josh “Mountain” Dew made a good representation at Batavia throwing striking out 32 in 25 innings. Opponents batted .159 off of him and he only walked 6 batters. Jonathan Edwards scorched the ball in 33 PAs at Batavia and generally draws good scouting reports noting his potential. I don’t think that either should have been on the list but they’re probably the only two that even had a shot besides Todd.
Filed under: Jess Todd
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
Fitt said if Mortensen had pitched a few more innings in the NYPenn, he would’ve certainly been in their Top 10. Nice to hear Todd get good reviews, of course. Hope his arm issues are strictly based on being tired, not something serious.
i don’t think dropping from 90-94 down to 88-89 is a sign of something serious. losing a couple of mph is probably due to just being tired. it sounds like he has the stuff to be a starter with 3 solid pitches, but we will have to see how he holds up over a full season next year.
I think if the Cards believe his future is in the bullpen he could be set on a “fast track”. I think if they see him as a starter he rise will be much slower. I think its really early to say he can’t make it as a starter, but I definitely see him as a potential dominant 7th/8th inning guy. I like the potential all in-house bullpen the Cards could potentially throw out there in 3 years with Perez closing, Kinney setting him up, Tyler Johnson and Randy Flores left side options, Todd and Gregerson 6th/7th inning type.
When was the last time the Cards were able to field a bullpen full of guys they developed? That would save a lot of money.
Not to nitpick, but Flores wasn’t developed by us. He came up with the Yankees and bounced around. We did draft him before the Yanks did, though.
I’m thinking Tyler Norrick for a lefty specialist. Had a pretty good split this year(lefties hit .205 against him, righties .227) for PB.
I think developing a bullpen and bench of guys that you develop is a huge deal. Especially considering the deviation from year to year of the performance of relief pitchers. There is really no reason to devote funds or mulit-year contracts to free agent relief pitching given its poor risk/reward ratio.
I agree. Especially given that we could have signed Russell for the price of some of our bench guys. Devote those funds to the draft, if you’re not going to give it to the Burnetts and Renterias of the world.
Jon Edwards is very important to our system IMO. He could become the #2 OF prospect after Rasmus.
Edwards has a LONG way to go before he’s the number two prospect in the system. The tools are there but he’s still incredibly raw.
That is how bare the cupboard is
Who would you call #2? Jones? Haerther? Shorey?
I’d pick someone closer to the top even if their ceiling was lower. Stavinoha, Mather, Haerther all strike me as better prospects right now. Edwards had a great year but it was in a short season league; it’s too early to say if those tools have really translated into results. He’s got a great ceiling but the gap between him currently and his ceiling is significant.
az,
I think you have to go Mather, Haerther, and then Stavinoha. I think I would rate Shorey higher than Stavinoha. Mather may be a bit older, but man his big year can’t be ignored. Also, he can play any of the outfield positions (but not CF everyday, only if in a pinch), first, and he did get drafted as a 3B. He has good speed for a big guy and a really strong arm. I can’t express how impressed I was after seeing Haerther in person. I was never a big fan of his due to all the injuries. But he has fantastic tools. He has a good, short stroke. Decent speed, good arm, and doesn’t embarrass himself in the field. The guy just can’t stay healthy. Shorey has good pop and a real professional approach at the plate. After seeing Stavinoha, it just seems that his ceiling has been reached. I just don’t see him as a MLB player. He is a AAAA player at best. He is a good college hitter that is destined to be a career minor leaguer in my humble opinion.
http://www.whiteyball.com
I know it won’t go down this way in any of the rankings, but my #2 OF prospect might be Tyler Henley. Just my personal feeling, but I really think he has a chance to be good. I saw a few games of his at Rice, and the kid covers an unbelievable amount of ground. His offensive profile compares pretty favorably to Jon Jay’s, and his defense is probably a tick behind Rasmus’s, in my opinion. His range may be even better, but his arm isn’t in Colby’s class.
Like I said, it won’t go that way in any rankings, (and honestly, if I were ranking minor leaguers for a publication, I wouldn’t put Henley there either) but for some reason, he’s the guy I’m most excited about, other than our star in waiting, of course.
RedBaron—I keep forgetting about the slew of Skips in the low minors (Henley, Riportella, Jay, Dejesus). Maybe one of them can become more than Skip.
Red Baron, I feel like I should buy you a beer. I have been singing Henley’s name from the rooftops for a while. I also think that Mather is probably the #2 OF prospect in the organization, but Henley is by far my favorite. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again he is the next Lenny Dykstra. He will never be a home run threat, but I do see him developing a good doubles total. He is an agressive player and was the leader on a really good Rice team.
Mmmm… Beer.