Future Redbirds

Remember when AZ said you can take this Kevin Goldstein article about Ian Kennedy, and how you can read it and substitute Kennedy’s name with P.J. Walters? KG has a mailbag where he elaborates a bit on why he’s not 100% sold on Kennedy, despite his stellar numbers:

Why do I believe that Kennedy, being a six-foot (at best) right-hander who sits in the high 80s won’t succeed on a great level? One reason is because of the track record of such pitchers. To help me make my point, Dan Fox was able to pull this out of his magic database. Here are the major league starters who are right-handed, have an average velocity in the 80s, and are six-feet tall and under:

Name           Pitches   Avg  Over90

Elmer Dessens    220    87.4    77

Tim Redding      268    85.9    79

Greg Maddux      626    85.1     0

Woody Williams   683    84.2     1

Yusmeiro Petit   457    83.8    25

Josh Fogg        350    83.7     9

That’s a pretty short and uninspiring list to be sure, and even if you want to hold up your Maddux flag, remember that this is the Maddux of the present-–in his prime, he sat in the low 90s. Again, I really like Ian Kennedy. I think he’s a really good prospect and one who should certainly provide the Yankees with an immediate upgrade over what Mike Mussina has been contributing of late, but his ceiling stops at No. 3 or 4 starter.

After much searching, I think I finally found my own comparison starter to Walters. Behold Brian Lawrence. Over his minor league career, Lawrence has a 4:1 K/BB ratio, despite having a fastball that averages out at 83 MPH. And both get by on location and trickery. Over five major league seasons he posted an ERA+ of 94, with a career high of +116. Of course, about half the games he threw were at Petco, and Busch III is less forgiving. Even if all Walters is just a 5th starter, if he can put up Suppan type numbers at the league minimum for a few years, that’s still pretty valuable for an 11th round pick.

• Colby Rasmus doesn’t want to wear the Golden Sombrero anymore. Or have to do any funny dances. With that, he’s chasing less and hitting the ball the other way. It’s like he reads FR, or something.
• For all the threatening the Memphis is doing about switching affiliates after their contract is done about 2008, they could be pretty stacked with talent going into next year.
• Not liking this: The Cardinals farm system from short season to AAA is the 2nd least patient at the plate, with a BB/PA % a .1 above the Cubs. They are 26th overall. To no great surprise, the A’s and Red Sox rank 1st. I thought Luhnow was more “Moneyball” then this.
• The Springfield pen just got stronger with the addition of Luke Gregerson, just in time for the playoffs. Mike Sillman was placed on the DL.

Let’s boogie…Springfield pummels Arkansas to win the TL North. Quad Cities, also in a pennant race of their own, is falling apart. Batavia gets blanked. And Mark McCormick made his long awaited first start for Palm Beach for the last game of the season. Step right up folks! Get your DPR here!

Memphis 4, Nashville 5

• Mike McCoy went 3 for 3 with a walk.
• Randy Keisler went 2 for 2 with a double. Sadly, he also pitched, allowing 5 runs on 8 hits over 6 innings.
• Brian Falkenborg allowed a hit and struck out 3 in 2 IP. I know he’s not great, but how is it he’s not a September call up and Kelvin Jimenez is?

Springfield 11, Arkansas 1

• Colby Rasmus walked twice thrice and tripled.
• Mark Hamilton had a big night, going 3 for 4 with a double, homer, and 3 RBI.
• Bryan Anderson went 2 for 4 with a homer and 3 RBI.
• Allen Craig walked and homered.
• Casey Rowlett went 2 for 4 with a double.
• Cory Rauschenberger allowed just 3 hits over 6 innings. He walked 3 while striking out 3, allowing just a run.
• Jason Motte struck out 2 over a perfect inning.
• Freshly promoted Luke Gregerson struck out 3 of the 4 batters he faced.

Palm Beach 4, Jupiter 3

• Mike McCormick threw 2 innings of shutout ball, allowing just 2 hits and he struck out 2.
• Trey Hearne piggybacked for 5 more innings of shutout ball, allowing 4 hits and walk while striking out 2. 10 of his outs came via the grounder.
• Luke Gorsett homered.
• Isaias Garcia and Nate Southard both doubled.

Quad Cities 0, Beloit 13

• The Swing are now tied with the Cedar Rapids Kernels for 1st. They’ve lost their last 6 as their pitching has gone to the crapper. Yet in spite of all that, they’ve clinched a berth in the MWL playoffs.
• Shaun Garceau was bombed on. He allowed 7 earned runs on 6 hits and 4 walks while getting only two outs.
• Oliver Marmol went 2 for 4 with 2 errors.
• Jason Cairns thew 3 wild pitches.

Batavia 0, Williamsport 2

• The Muckdog offense was held to just 3 hits facing 1st rounder Joe Savery and Chris Kissock.
• Blake King allowed just a hit over 4 innings, striking out 5. He’s really cut down handing out the free passes as of late.
• Logan Collier allowed 2 earned runs on 2 walks and 2 hits, striking out 4.
• Pete Kozma had two fielding errors.