Everywhere you read Ian Kennedy, try reading PJ Walters instead. Kevin Goldstein does a very nice job articulating why everyone should (in general) temper they’re expectations of soft-tossing command and control pitchers.
Let’s start with the basics on a scouting level. Kennedy is smallish (6′0), and his best pitch is a power changeup, which features heavy, late movement, and rates somewhere around a 60 on the 20-80 scouting scale according to most. He throws a two- and four-seam fastball, and rarely even touches 90 mph with his heaters. His curveball is an average offering. That kind of stuff just doesn’t jive with those numbers above [A table of Kennedy's basic stats this season at each level]. So how is he doing it? Command and control. Kennedy’s command and control scores rank with anyone in the minors. Don’t judge this solely by the walk rate; it’s about locating your pitches, setting up hitters, and never giving them something good to hit.
If I don’t promote the work that Goldstein does at BP often enough, I should. I’ve found that their material as a whole has grown a bit stale for me or just too math intensive at times but Goldstein is someone whom I read every word of.
As noted in yesterday’s comments, Elvis Hernandez to the DL and Marco Gonzalez comes off the DL.
This is the kind of inane, senseless garbage that the guys over at FJM would tear apart. It’s about Miguel Cairo now at Memphis — I gagged several times while reading phrases like:
the 33-year-old’s versatility as perhaps his greatest attribute
Well we know it isn’t his bat.
Cairo has long been valued for his ability to play a number of positions and play them well.
Except that he hasn’t posted an above average EqA for 3 years. There’s no upside to be had giving him at bats. Guys like Hoffpauir and Edgar Gonzalez are better players than Cairo, end of story.
The Cardinals’ need for a player like Cairo is increasing by the minute.
Nope. This is incorrect. The Cardinals need a good MLB caliber player. Miguel Cairo belongs in AAA.
Cairo, who played in 227 regular-season games for the Cardinals from 2001-03, has the added value of being a known entity in St. Louis. He hit .253 with eight homers and 62 RBI for the Cardinals and still has a number of admirers within the organization.
We know that he’s a replacement level entity at best. I hope Jim Masilik doesn’t honestly think that being a known-entity is inherently valuable. It’s only a good thing if you are good. For the “number of admirers” all I have to say is that I own a lead pipe and I am willing to go Tonya Harding on your ass if that is what is required to keep Cairo off the field.
The 6-3, 220-pound Cairo said he understood the situation in New York. He also said his performance with the Yankees proves he still has much to offer.
I know that these are the best players in the world, but are they so detached from reality that they really can’t realize when they just aren’t as good as they were at one time??? Jarrett Hoffpauir is the best person to receive the at bats with Rolen going down. [/rant]
Jose Martinez continues his hot hitting ways in Springfield. Mitchell Boggs twirls a gem. Mark Shorey continues his campaign for most overlooked player in the Cardinals farm system. The DPR’s are getting a little shorter as the GCL Cardinals and Johnson City are done for the year.
- Skip Schumaker went 1-for-4 with a HR.
- Jarrett Hoffpauir went 1-for-2 with a pair of BB. He’s walking in over 12% of his plate appearances.
- Mike Smith was helping his own cause with a 2-for-3 (2 doubles) night at the plate. He threw 6.2 innings allowing 3 ER on 6 hits, 3 BB and 7 K.
- Andy Cavazos pitched a scoreless 8th striking out 1.
- Chris Perez got the save with a perfect 9th striking out 2.
- Jose Martinez went 2-for-4 with a HR. If he ever learns to take a walk. . .
- Amaury Cazana Marti went 2-for-2 with a pair of BBs. He also grappled with a silverback gorilla escaped from a nearby zoo. Marti won.
- Uncle Rico went deep. (Ugh, that sounds sleezy.)
- Allen Craig was 1-for-4 with a double.
- Mitchell Boggs was excellent. He threw 8 innings allowing 2 hits, 3 BB and 5 K.
Palm Beach 4, Brevard County 1
- Jim Rapoport went 2-for-5.
- Mark Shorey went 2-for-4 with a HR.
- Luke Gorsett went 2-for-4 with a triple.
- Stuart Pomeranz had a nice outing allowing 1 ER on a solo shot. He struck out 4 in 5 innings allowing 2 hits and walking no one.
- Luke Gregerson picked up another save striking out 1 in a perfect inning.
- Jose Ramirez went 3-for-3 with a BB.
- Fastest bat Steve Hill went 0-for-4.
- Clayton Mortensen recorded an astonishing 10 of 11 BIP-outs on the ground. He also struck out 4 against a hit and a walk in 5 innings.
- Matt Spade was added to the roster to help the QC but he’s the goat again tonight. At least he recorded outs this time. . .
- Jonathan Stambaugh got lit up for 5 runs in 4 innings.
- Brandon Garner threw 4 innings of 2 hit ball striking out 1.
- Just do yourself a favor and don’t bother to look at this box score. . . . not worth your time.
Filed under: Daily Farm Reports
erik
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If Kennedy can touch high 80’s and low 90’s then he should have a higher upside. Ankiel was throwing at the low 90’s when he came into the system and then became a mid-90’s after becoming a believer in long toss. It is a shame that velocity with no command is considered better than command an lower velocity when velocity can be added.
An non-baseball example is Drew Brees. He was thought to have poor arm strength, but through better mechanics and exercise on his core now is considered NFL average if not better, while still maintaining his accuracy.
Like I said a few days ago—why is Mitchell Boggs flying so far under the radar?
Az-
Just a comment on the Kennedy article. I think a lot of scouts underate change-ups from soft tossers, because they perceive a greater difference in speeds from the heater to the change of hard tossers. Most scouts are more impressed with a 75mph change from a guy throwing 95mph, than a 65mph change from kid throwing 85mph because they are basing the rating of the chagne-up on the rating of the fastball…
I really hope that Cairo doesn’t come up and take at bats from Ryan. The kid deserves the ABs due to his performance on the field. He may have not been a super prospect coming in and his ceiling may be limited but the kid has produced since coming to the bigs. Look at how many can’t miss prospects have come up and not produce. Keep the kid in the lineup until he proves he can’t handle it.
I believe that Boggs is flying under the radar due to consistency, or lack there of.
I agree about Goldstein. That guy produces informative, interesting material.
http://www.whiteyball.com
11-7 with a 3.84 ERA in a hitters league with 120 k’s seems pretty good for Boggs. He has produced everywhere he has been thus far.
Hoff definitely deserves to get called up and get some ABs, if nothing else just to get the experience. I can see Cairo’s value if we didn’t already have Miles. To me Cairo is a better fielding Miles, but not much else.
Boggs is the type of guy that will show up in the Cards bullpen in the next 2-3 years for long relief and people will be like “who is this guy?”
While arm strength and velocity can be incrementaly improved you will not see a jump in velocity that extreme. Brees is an example of a guy that uses precision and good reads for success not velocity like a guy like Favre. The reason scouts tend to value a guys movement and velocity more than a guys command and mound presence is because it is almost impossible to raise a guys velocity more than 1 or 2 mph, but you can teach a guy better mechanics and how to set up hitters. Ankiel and other high school pitchers will develop velocity, just because of the fact that at 18-19 they aren’t done developing. Once a guy is a junior or senior in college his velocity is pretty much what it is unless he has a mechanical flaw that is causing arm drag. Most scouts rate guys with power stuff higher than “trick” pitchers for a reason, their upside and chances of sticking to a MLB roster are much greater. While watching a guy like Tewksbury or even Suppan shows that soft-tossers can make it with preparation and location proves that they can succeed, they will always be the guys that have to constantly prove the scouts wrong as they move up the organizational ladders.
10-6 3.41
11-7 3.84
WHitey—I think Mitch’s numbers over the last 2 years define consistency.
Bogg’s W-L & ERA may look good, but his WHIP for 2007 of 1.55 shows that he still has things to work on in the minors.
We’ll get a better read on him as he faces competition in the AFL in Oct/Nov.
Mitchell Boggs in my mind projects to a Josh Hancock player.
He isnt a top 20 guy on my list.
Pickle–out of curiosity, who are your top 20?
I think Boggs has earned a spot among our top 5 pitchers with Herron, Walters, Garcia, and Ottavino (I don’t count relievers)
he is a top 20 guy on my list, but around the bottom of the list. he gets ground balls and his peripherals have stayed steady the past 3 seasons. he doesn’t strike out a ton of guys, gives up about an average amount of walks and has high babips. his ceiling is 5th starter, but the common school of thought is he would make a good reliever, which was his main role in college
My Top 20:
Just for some fun
1-Colby Rasmus: Duh
2-Tyler Herron: Its early in his career, but finding out that he has only been pitching for 3 years makes me very excited about what he COULD BECOME
3-Chris Perez: The ceiling is exciting here too
4-Bryan Anderson: If he can add some power and better defense, he could be the top catcher in the minors anywhere
5-Jose Martinez: Some will question this, but he is putting it together very nicely
6-Jaime Garcia: A lefty at age 20 who is basically ready for AAA—talk about a possible steal!
7-Adam Ottavino: Cut down the walks please
8-PJ Walters: His stuff isn’t great….who cares?
9-Jarrett Hoffpauir: His ceiling may not be as high as some others, but production is very important, especially when it is in AA-AAA
10-Joe Mather: Like Hawksworth, he is getting pretty old to be considered a prospect, but his season forces me to include him; hope Tony can find a spot for him
11-Allen Craig: Lets see what he can do at AA before we call him the heir apparent at 3rd
12-Blake Hawksworth: Sure he has struggled this year, but his ceiling is big league #4
13-Mark Hamilton: Has slowed down in AA, but looks to be catching on of late
14-Kenny Maiques: Would love to see him get a shot at starting
15-Mitchell Boggs: The numbers don’t lie; maybe we didn’t lose Suppan after all
16-Steve Hill: I doubt he is as good as it would seem; Hopefully, he will be in Spingfield next year so we can find out
17-Mark Shorey: He has proven that he can hit; hopefully he will be given a real shot
18-Tyler Greene: Was ok before the injury this year; hopefully he can finally realize the potential in Springfield next year
19-Nick Additon: The peripherals at Johnson City are very exciting
20-Mark McKormick: He gets on here because of potential; some production would be nice
Honorable Mention: Brandon Yarborough, Jon Edwards, Pete Kozma
my top 20?
Off the top of my head and I do as much about skill and projection as I do about actual production.
1. Rasmus
2. Anderson
3. Garcia
4. Perez
5. Herron
6. Ottavino
7. Kozma
8. The Hoff
9. Craig
10. Mather
11. Mortensen
12. P.Walters
13. J. Martinez
14. D. Jones
15. J.Jay
16. Furnish
17. J.Edwards
18. T.Greene
19. McCormick
20. Yarbrough
Now of course I am going to leave someone obvious out….but it was done off the top of my head. It was heard to leave guys off the list like Motte, S.Hill and M.Shorey
ranking the starters for the heckuvit…
1. garcia (if healthy)
2. herron
3. ottavino
4. mortensen
5. walters
6. hawksworth (i have to think he’s not healthy, if he’s going to be sidelined again then that would drop him down further)
7. boggs
8. todd
9. norrick
10. garceau
11. furnish
12. degerman
13. hooker
14. blazek
15. additon, maybe zawacki…could shoot up the list with a strong start to next season.
My Top 20 is based on not just ceiling, but the likelihood of them becoming a contributing member
1. Rasmus: best true CF prospect left in the minors. I think at best he ends up a Sizemore and at worst a Rowand.
2. Anderson: If nothing else his perceived value by scouts is high. He could be part of a piece to get the Cards a #3 type starter next year. He reminds me a little bit of LaDuca when he first came up.
3. Perez: Could be the next Wild Thing Williams, but the Wild Thing had a pretty solid career.
4. Garcia: No way can Herron be rated higher. I’ll take the lefty that proved he could handle AA.
5. Herron: More ceiling than any of the other pitchers.
6. Mortenson: I really like him. I know its only 1 year, but I think he compares favorably to a Westbrook/Lowe. If I had to bet my life on who will make it to the majors as a starter between Mortenson/Ottavino/Herron/McCormick/Walters I would take Mortenson and the sinking action.
7. Hoff: have to put him here just because of the fact that I don’t see how he doesn’t make the MLB team next year.
8. Ottavino: If he can consistently find the strike zone he could be really good.
9. Martinez: Can’t deny his production at AA. Will be interesting to see if he gets to start at AAA next year. I may be wrong, but he reminds me of Belliard when he first came up 50lbs ago.
10. Hawksworth: Most ready “prospect” SP we got. Could win a rotation spot if he comes in healthy to spring training.
11. Allen Craig: His importance could increase with Rolens continued injuries. If he can hit consistently in AA next year he could become the next big thing.
12. Walters: Most talked about prospect besides Marti on this site. His product continues. Ceiling could be a 4 starter, worst case quadruple A type pitcher-too good for minors not good enough for MLB.
13. Mather: I don’t see a high ceiling, but do see a power hitting 4th outfielder/pinch hitter
14. Kozma: Errors scare me, but offense came on late. Tell more about him after first full year in system.
15. Motte: A lot of opening in MLB bullpen next year, could he get one of the spots?
16. Maiques: I love his attitude. Next year could be where he jumps up a lot of spots, especially if he moves to rotation.
17. Boggs: I see him more as a long reliever and spot starter.
18. Hill: I’m excited about his early success, hopefully he continue.
19. Greene: Needs to have big year next year.
20. D. Jones: Had a couple of really good weeks that showed his talent. He needs to start producing consistently.
i believe kennedy will be have a great carreer in the bigs,if PJ is being compared to him it is a huge compliment.every now & then there is exceptions to the flame thrower.