Future Redbirds

I’m a real believer in freely available talent. There are still market inefficiencies to be capitalized on in today’s MLB. One of those is the 5th starter. I’d personally like to see the 4-man rotation employed but in all honesty we know that isn’t going to happen. So let’s try for the next best thing. Let’s leverage our 4 best starting pitchers and skip the 5th starter on offdays. This does place a heftier burden on your other 4 starters but it isn’t a black and white system. If someone needs a day off or an extra days rest, use your 5th starter. The point is to minimize the impact of that 5th starter because most teams 5th starters aren’t that good.

In January of this year, the Nationals had a starting rotation that consisted of 1) John Patterson, 2) blank, 3) blank, 4) blank, 5) blank. Considering that the farm system was one of, if not the worst, in the entire league, Jim Bowden had his work cut out for him. Thus he cast a dragnet for minor league pitchers and castoffs in a seemingly feeble attempt to fill out spots 2-5 in his rotation. This season, the Nationals have used 13 different starting pitchers. Pitching half your games inside the cavern that is RFK stadium can help anyone but the point is that there are some more than adequate names on that list to be a fifth starter. Tim Redding, Micah Bowie. . . the list continues. The point is that these players cost the team nothing more than a league minimum contract. Now the Nationals were in a unique position of grabbing 5-8 players and hoping that a few panned out. It’s not often that a pitcher really turns into something great (Jeremy Guthrie) but it does happen from time to time. Utilizing the waiver system and free talent from the minors is a way for the Cardinals to fill out the back of the rotation.

That said, let’s see if we can’t find some players that fit the following criteria: 1) GB% > 50, 2)K:BB > 2:1, 3) Age < 30, 4) in AAA as a starter and 5) they have to be minor league free agents at year’s end. After a quick perusal of First Inning’s league leader’s section, I came across a pitcher that fit my criteria. (In the interest of full disclosure, I was hoping to find more but after setting a rather stringent set of criteria the players I encountered were usually on the 40 man rosters of their respective teams.) Now, most teams are far too interested in track records rather than skill sets. What I’ve attempted to do is target a skillset of groundball tendencies and good control of the strikezone. This isn’t a perfect system but the player that I found is one that I would send scouts to see were I Jeff Luhnow. At the very least offering them a Randy Keisler type non-roster-invite to spring training. I’ve also came across 2 other pitchers that are older haven’t really settled in with their MLB team but are on the 40 man rosters. Let’s meet our contestants:

1) Colby Lewis - Age 28 - Oakland Athletics (Sacramento)

2007 Stats: 95.2 IP, K% - 25.9, BB% - 6.1, GB% - 51, FIP - 3.28 (Career Stats)

First off, I love the idea of poaching a pitcher that could develop into a useful component from Billy Beane. It’s perfect in it’s irony. Lewis has seen time in the majors over the course of 5 years. For whatever reason, he hasn’t been able to translate his success from AAA and the minors to the majors. Still, the stats he’s posted in Sacramento this year are nothing short of fantastic (although the BABIP might indicate he’s been a lucky). He was drafted in 1999 by the Rangers in the first round. In 2006 he was claimed off waivers by the Tigers and found himself with Oakland in 2007. I don’t know why he can’t seem to have even close to the success in the majors that he had in the minors but it’s obvious that he was at one point a highly regarded prospect. Bringing him into the fold and seeing if the Cardinal’s coaching staff can make something of him is worth a shot.

2) Jack Cassel - Age 27 - San Diego Padres (Portland)

2007 Stats: 156 IP, K% - 16.6, BB% - 6.0, GB% - 56, FIP - 3.98 (Career Stats)

Cassel was my favorite of the players that met my criteria. He’s consistently struck out 6 per 9 in the minors with good control limiting the number of free passes. He’s also shown strong groundball tendenices that would play well in front of a team with a strong defensive infield. He is on the Padres 40-man roster currently and I’m not going to pretend that I know enough about their system to say whether he’ll stay on it this offseason or if they’ll try and resign him to a minor league contract. The fact that he’s only seen 6 IP in the majors this year, indicates that the Padres aren’t that high on him for whatever reason. Cassel’s 2007 stats come with a .373 BABIP adding to their luster.

3) Kurt Birkins - Age 27 - Baltimore Orioles (Norfolk)

2007 Stats: 105 IP, K% - 21.8, BB% - 8.5, GB% - 54, FIP - 3.25 (Career Stats)

How Birkins hasn’t managed to even claim a spot in that god-awful Oriole’s pen is beyond me. He’s been hit hard in the 12.2 IP at the bigs this year but he’s been unlucky and it’s 12.2 innings. His command isn’t quite as good as Cassel or Lewis but he still gets groundballs with an above average strikeout rate. He’s back in Norfolk as a starter right now and is on the Orioles 40 man roster.

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So what was the point of that exercise you might ask? Azru only found one washed up former first rounder and two older guys on their teams 40-man rosters. What a waste of time!

Well, the point is that good pitchers aren’t the ones being bought off the free agent market. Track records of success at the major league level doesn’t always portend to continued success and teams are too willing to continue trying the Kip Wells of the world rather than a pitcher who hasn’t had the opportunity or maybe hasn’t developed along the conventional-wisdom timelines. Identifying pitchers that haven’t put it all together at the big league level but had real (rather than ERA-mirage) success in the minors is a way to find the Jeremy Guthrie’s of the world. In about 30 minutes, I’ve identified three players that aren’t being leveraged by their respective teams despite having successful seasons in the minors and a history of peripherals that indicate success.

Colby Lewis in particular stands out as someone who could turn into something special eventually. He continues to excel at the minors but the transition to the majors just hasn’t come as naturally as it does for others. A team that can coax a semblance of his success in the minors out of him at the big league level could have a real find on their hands.