Last night’s DPR is right here in case you were wondering. AZ makes a shocking confession. He hates BBQ right up there with hating seafood. I understand seafood hating, but how can you have barbecue? I’m not so sure AZ has ever had real barbecue. I’m at a loss, but I admit, I am a BBQ fanatic. Moving along.
December is a little ways off but I figure it’s never too early to talk about some decisions that will need to be made between now and then on what players will need to be added to the 40 man to stay under protection from the rule 5 draft.
With the new rules in place, players who were 19 or older and were drafted in 2004 can be made available in rule 5 if not on the team’s 40 man roster. The 2004 draft? Ewww….Let’s take a look at some of the available names:
Chris Lambert -The proud owner of a 7.95 ERA for AAA Memphis, pitching in relief. Who would want him? Verdict: Add to 40 man? NO. Odds of getting drafted in rule 5-A million to one.
Mike Ferris -Pick #2 out of the 2004 draft, has a career .667 OPS. Struggling to find playing time for AAA Memphis, wouldn’t stick to a major league roster, let alone a AAA one next year. Verdict: Add to 40 man? NO. Odds of getting drafted in rule 5-A million to one.
Eric Haberer -He has a 4.07 ERA for AA Springfield, but his peripherals are rather oogly. He has nearly as many walks (64) as strikeouts (67) facing 620 batters. But he is left-handed and has a pronounced platoon split, and he is adept and burning some wormage. It’s long been thought he’d be better suited for relief, kinda wish the Cardinals auditioned him in that role sooner then later. Verdict: Add to 40 man? Nah. Odds of him getting drafted if exposed: 15 to 1.
Jarrett Hoffpauir -Mighty mite came out of nowhere to make a name for himself, posting a .396 wOBA at AA Springfield, and a .373 wOBA for Memphis. This is a slam dunk. Verdict: No doubt will be added to 40 man, and hopefully with a strong Spring he can end Aaron Miles-ism permanently.
Several more after the jump.
Mike Parisi - In 145.2 innings, Parisi has a 5.19 FIP. Mediocre stuff and his peripherals declined upon being promoted to each level until he hit Springfield, and he’s just kinda stayed there since. Verdict: Add to 40 man? Pass. Odds of him getting drafted in Rule 5? Slim to none.
Mark Worrell - Mr. Pitcher of the Many Arm Angles has maintained his solid level of play for the last three seasons between A ball to AAA. Verdict: Add to 40 man? Certainly there should be room assuming Randy Keisler and Kelvin Jimenez will be gone. Of course. What’ll happen if he isn’t added? I think the odds are at least 3 to 1 he’d be drafted, and nearly the same odds he’d stick to whatever team would take him.
Mike Sillman - His injuries may be a blessing in disguise. He’s been out almost all season and when healthy has been ineffective. I don’t think 2006 was a total fluke. Verdict: He should be fine as is.
Jason Motte - He was exposed last year, apparently not enough teams had the imagination and gumption to try and turn him into a reliever. Since he’s struck out nearly 30% of the batters he’s faced, I have to think he’s on most team’s radars now. I say put him on the 40 man and see what he does in Memphis next year. Maybe he’s the 2nd coming of Troy Percival. Wait, Percival is currently the 2nd coming of Troy Percival. OK, Motte could be the 3rd coming.
Matt Scherer - He’s been roughed up this month, but has been solid overall for the past 2 seasons. His peripheral dropped some upon being called up to AA, but that was to be expected. Armed with a decent sinker and a very good splitter, I could see why clubs would take a shot at him. He’s very tough on right handers, while southpaws eat him up. Verdict: I’d strongly consider putting him on the 40 man, but it isn’t the end of the world if they don’t. If another team scoops him up, there’s could be a fair chance of him being returned a la Tyler Johnson.
Other names of note that have no chance of being taken: Stuart Pomeranz, Brandon Yarbrough, and Dan Nelson.
If I’m missing something or you feel something is in error, let me know in the comments.
Filed under: Rule 5 Draft
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
With 31 games in September, I’d wager Worrell is on the 40-man roster before December.
What about Joe Mather?
Snake–I’m pretty sure Mather is actually going to be a free agent.
Any discussion about the rule 5 draft is incomplete unless you know who is in jeopardy on the 40 man roster.
As for soon changes I see coming: Carp to 60 day DL and Mulder to 40 man on sept 1, Esposito will be removed for Stinnett (Cards illegally placed him at Memphis that is why he is back on the restricted list right now) another question I have is whether JRod can be placed on the 60 day DL or not. Also how does the 60 day DL affect the 40 man roster after the season is over? I haven’t seen that yet (still new to all the official workings of the game).
Ok now for the real meat of the offseason:
we have 23 pitchers (2 on 60 day) assuming Percival leaves and Springer retires (not a safe one imo) and Izzy’s contract is picked up. Wainwright, Franklin, Looper, Mulder, Carp (60 day most likely), and Kinney (60 day) are all safe most likely. Johnson, Flores, Reyes, Thompson, Pineiro, Maroth, Wellemeyer, Cate, Cavazos, Dove, Hawksworth, Jimenez and Keisler are all in the cards for losing a spot some way (trade, dropped from roster, not resigned) and are under club control at the present time. Of those, the ones from Cavazos down are the most likely to lose a spot (I still contend Dove is the PTBNL in the Maroth trade).
We have 3 catchers, one will lose his spot to Stinnett and I doubt a 3rd will be placed on the roster to replace Stinnett at the end of the season (also I assume Bennett’s option for .9M is picked up)
We have 9 IFers (one is Spiezio not counting against the 40 man) the only real questions for a 40 man roster slot are Eckstein and Miles, Hanson is almost certainly off if the need arises and I think Barden will keep his spot for the time being.
We have 10 OFers (one is on 60 day currently) Preston is gone but he doesn’t affect the 40 man, unless Juan is traded the only real change I foresee (not knowing the GM’s mind) is So retiring and possibly Cody losing his slot. JRod is the only other question and I just don’t know how to answer that one.
Total 45 players 4 not on 40 man roster currently have 40 man roster slots (Huh?) so according to stlcardinals.com we have 41 men on the 40 man roster I can see several openings for people needing protection.
Mather should be a Minor league FA but if I understand the rule correctly he still needs to be added to the 40 man or we lose him thus I think he factors into the discussion as well.
Mather should be a Minor league FA but if I understand the rule correctly he still needs to be added to the 40 man or we lose him thus I think he factors into the discussion as well.
Right, that’s my understanding as well. Mather would be a minor league free agent if not added to the 40-man roster.
Per past comments, I like Mather and would like to see him given an opportunity…although with Ludwick he is a bit redundant in the outfield. The kid really needs to be able to manage 3B.
By the way, where is Narveson right now?
brandon yarbrough won’t be drafted in the major league rule V draft, but he better at least be on the AAA roster b/c if we lose him in the minor league portion of the draft i will be a little ticked. not many people may realize it, but he is having a great season in palm beach.
current stats
.284/.335/.427 with 16 doubles, 10 triples, and 5 homers in 356 at bats
that may not seem like a whole lot, but he is still only 22 years old and is a lefthanded hitting catcher. he is showing the ability to hit for a pretty good average and is showing at least gap power. he is obviously behind anderson on the depth chart, but if the cardinals decide molina is their catcher and trade anderson i think yarbrough could end up being a great back-up catcher.
I have the same feelings about Yarbrough. How’s his defense?
I hope that Worrell gets a shot with the big club. I don’t get why he has always been considered a “non-prospect.” All he does is put up good numbers.
Yarbo’s defense is solid, but not spectacular. I see his ceiling be that of a midlevel backup catcher. I can’t see him making the 40 man roster this year, he should make it through the 5 draft without a problem.
I definitely see Worrell making the MLB team next year with a solid spring. I see him as a guy who becomes a RHP specialist.
I’m not worried about any of the OFs since we have such a glut of midlevel guys. After Rasmus much of the guys skills overlap others. Is there really much of a gap between Stach. and Mather? Some of these guys are going to have to clear out anyway for the guys in the lower levels that are ready for advancement (Jay).
No way Dove is the PTBNL for Maroth, as I’m willing to bet that the players made available depend on Maroth’s play. Ala…
Maroth does well - Better prospect, of which Dove may be on list
Maroth is average - middle of the road
Maroth sucks - throw away minor leaguer
We all know which catagory Maroth belongs in. However, I would not be surprised if Dove is the PTBNL for Pineiro.
I kind of hope JRod or Skip is the PTBNL. They deserve a real shot at the big league level and it seems they won’t get 1 here.
skip is going to get a real shot next year b/c he is out of options. i don’t know if that will be with the cardinals, but it will be with someone.
I would love to see Skip replace So. Its time for the Taguchi novelty act to end
Anyone have the 411 on Mather? If we put him on the 40 man can he still become a free agent (a la Cory Doyne…)? Seems like it would be no brainer to put him on the 40 man…
It’s kind of important to remember that Mather is 25, just a couple months younger than Stavinoha. (He was our third-round pick in 2001, so this is his seventh minor-league season.) Chris Duncan is 26. So a lot of the clutter we have among our corner outfielders is among guys who’re reaching their peak years.
Ankiel, at 28, should be right at his physical peak, although with all he’s been through and the time he’s lost to injury, it’s impossible to predict if his body will play younger or older than you’d expect.
When you throw Ludwick (who’s 29) and Schu (27) into the mix, that’s a whole lot of guys who either are or soon will be at their peak of productivity, which is a long way of saying that their most valuable years are either here or coming up fast.
Answers to some of the questions that were asked above.
40 man roster/60 day DL - Before the rule V draft, teams must submit to the league office up to 40 players (can be less) that the team can protect from the rule V draft. At that point, all players have been removed from the DL lists (15/60 day DL’s).
Note: If a team wants to participate in the rule V draft, it must submit less than 40 players to the league office. Teams must have an open spot for each player that it selects in the rule V draft.
Joe Mather - Cards can add him to the 40 man roster at the end of Memphis’ season, thereby negating his 6 year free agent status. He then falls into a new category, whereby he receives 3 option years starting with the 2008 season. Once a player is added to the 40 man roster, he cannot become a free agent, ala Cory Doyne.
Chris Narveson - Per Kyle Parkinson of the Memphis Redbirds, Chris is on the Memphis DL.
PTBNL/Detroit - Detroit must forward it’s selection to the Cards no later than Sept 15th. Orignal reports said that the Cards gave Detroit of list of 3 pitchers, one of which was on the 40 man roster. Is it Dove? No one knows at this point. Rather doubtful that Detroit would select a pitcher who’s been injured most of the summer.
J. Rod/60 Day DL. It is my understanding that the Cards could recall him from Memphis and place him on the 60 day DL. Same thing with Dennis Dove who is on the DL at this time
Bleacherbum - Really appreciate the response. I have been complaining about the loss of Doyne since last winter and will eventually let it go. The Cards couldn’t possibly expose Mather by leaving him off the 40 man… just couldn’t happen right?
I think there’s a very good chance (80%+) that the Cards will add Mather to the 40 man this winter. I would look for him, Hoffpauir & Motte to be added. At least that’s my best guess (which has been wrong in the past - see Dee Haynes)
Like Terry Evans last year, this year has been Mather’s breakout year. Sometimes it just takes time for it to fully click in….
With the changing of the guard from Manno to Luhnow, I wonder if players like Evans & Mather will be given the time to fully mature into players in the future.
Hugo, in your OF remarks, you said “the only real change I foresee (not knowing the GM’s mind) is So retiring and possibly Cody losing his slot”
Who is Cody that you are talking about?
Chris in your post you said “Is there really much of a gap between Stach. and Mather?”
Who is Stack. that you are talking about?
Thanks
Cody = Cody Haerther (currently playing OF at Springfield (AA)
Stach = Nick Stavinohoa (currently playing OF at Memphis (AAA)
OK, Thanks.