What’s a prospect gotta do to get some attention? Well, in fairness, Chris Constancio was talking about him at THT and erik did a profile in January. Jose Martinez is still an underrated player in the Cardinal’s system. The question of why has an easy two-fold answer: 1) his skillset isn’t flashy and 2) he’s a step behind Colby Rasmus and Bryan Anderson.
To elaborate on the first point, let’s look at what Martinez has done in the minors:
| Year | Age | Level | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | ISO | BB% | K% | BABIP | GB% | LD% | wOBA |
| 2006 | 20 | A | 352 | 0.270 | 0.316 | 0.417 | 0.147 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 0.274 | 45 | 15 | 0.317 |
| 2007 | 21 | A+ | 241 | 0.248 | 0.283 | 0.323 | 0.075 | 4.6 | 8.3 | 0.265 | 53 | 14 | 0.266 |
| 2007 | 21 | AA | 210 | 0.301 | 0.324 | 0.474 | 0.173 | 3.8 | 11 | 0.309 | 46 | 24 | 0.340 |
As most of you probably already know, Jose Martinez is a consumate contact hitter. He rarely strikes out and his primary skill is being able to put that bat on the ball. The BABIP’s at A and A+ levels is low. I’m not sure what’s holding it down besides bad luck but even accounting for the low line drive rate, you’d expect his BABIP to be around .300. At AA the BABIP has jumped up and the LD% has increased as well. We’ve linked those two stats before — line drives fall for a hit almost 3x as often as a groundball.
The ISO took a nose dive at Palm Beach, a noted pitchers park. I remember when PETCO first opened in San Diego and the Padres’ players almost universally complained about how hard it was to hit in the ballpark. I’m not one to make a big deal out of the psychology of hitting but I won’t completely discount the idea that larger ballparks can get in a player’s head. Whatever the reason, Martinez wasn’t hitting for any discernible power at A+. His true talent level probably lies closer to what we’ve seen at A and AA rather than Palm Beach.
Focusing specifically on his line at Springfield, Martinez is hitting .301 and we then arrive at what is undoubtedly the biggest hole in his game - a .324 OBP. The walk rate is pathetic. It’s deteriorated year after year which is not a trend you want to continue. Martinez is undoubtedly having a hot August in AA but it’s entirely predicated on his AVG and a BABIP that has spiked to .371. Those aren’t rates that are sustainable. If Martinez doesn’t learn to take a walk, he’s going to have a hard time being more than an average shortstop (see his .340 wOBA for Springfield).
As I said initially, I think one of the reasons that Martinez is overlooked is that his skillset isn’t “flashy”. He’s not going to hit homeruns in bunches. He’s not known as an excellent fielder He doesn’t steal very often. He does do several things well (hit for average, “doubles power”, average SS defense) and it’s easy to overlook a player who is well-rounded in their skills as compared to players that do one thing really well.
The second point is one that I don’t think is made often enough with regards to Jose Martinez. He’s just 21 at AA and he’s holding his own. That’s young. I’d guess that the median age is around 23 for AA. Now that’s not prodigal young, but it’s young enough to expect that his skillset hasn’t hit it’s ceiling. With Rasmus and Anderson beginning the year at AA and both doing well (Anderson has cooled off but Rasmus is, despite being streaky, still kicking butt), the endeavors of Martinez are left in the shadow of the two uber-prospects. He made the jump back in There’s nothing wrong with that as both Rasmus and Anderson project to be very good players while Martinez doesn’t have that kind of ceiling. It’s just another wrinkle as to why Martinez doesn’t get the publicity that he might otherwise in our less than fantastic farm system.
What’s the best career path we could hope for out of Jose Martinez? I like the comparison that erik made in his Placido Polanco post as a ceiling. The poor BB%, the scouting reports of questionable defense at short and the contact rate all seem to match up with their career paths thus far. An average SS is not something to be undervalued when you can get it for league minimum but I don’t see All-star in his future. He’s the type of player you want to fill your roster out with when they-re cheap but not bill as a core player or pay market rates for. The floor to that ceiling, if you will, is someone who never makes it out of AAA as their inability to draw walks catches up to them at the higher levels along with just OK defense. While I think Martinez fails to get enough credit for the things he does well, I’d still pick the “floor” as more likely for Martinez. It not a major leap, however, for him to make some additional improvements and turn out to be an asset at the major league level.
Filed under: Jose Martinez
erik
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Kind of off subject but whatever happend to Pujols cousin(?) we drafted a few years ago in the 1000th some round? Always thought it was pretty cool but never hear anything of him.
wilfredo pujols was released earlier this season. I don’t see the poor defense with Martinez. He’s better than Greene by leaps and bounds and looks better now than Ryan did at double A. I get that he’s not that fast, but he still moves very well, has a very quick first step and makes strong and accurate throws. out of the “prospect” short stops in the same league that I’ve seen, sean rodriguez, jonathon herrera or brandon wood, I would take martinez’s defense over any of them.
Maybe Martinez could be a better value at 2B. If you said he could fill into the role that Polanco provides Detroit I would be very satisfied with that outcome.
I have seen a play a couple times and came away really impressed. He does have quite a bit more pop than Polanco. His play reminds me a lot of Renteria. I am not saying he will be that good, its just who I think of. One AB in particular sticks out. He got 2 strikes, fouled 3 bullets down the right field line to stay alive. The next pitch was thrown in on his hands and he turned on it and hit a 3-run shot over the left field fence. Totally impressive.
http://www.whiteyball.com
BTW, did you see that Colby was #1 on BA’s Prospect Hot Sheet as well as Texas League player of the week?
http://www.whiteyball.com
quentin, how would you compare him to midland’s gregorio petit? he was ranked as the best defensive shorstop in the texas league this year.
you left 2005 out of martinez’s stats, but i think it is important to note that he was right there with rasmus and anderson that year playing on the same team. he hit .300/.387/.500 in what was really his best all around season as he set hit career high with 20 walks and 9 steals even though he only played 55 games.
i have also compared him to polanco in the past, but i think he may in time actually be more valuable b/c he has shown the ability to play shortstop. i said before the season that no one ever talks about him, but one day he was going to be an every day player for the cardinals and that statement is looking pretty good right now.
btw, did you see this today in baseball america’s prospect plus?
Chris Kline favorite Jose Martinez raised his average 15 points to .301 with a five-hit day,
evidently there is someone at baseball america that is a martinez fan, and they also picked him to be a breakout player this year.
Fewgood, honestly I couldn’t tell you because I’ve only seen a couple of midland games and both times Penington was the starting short stop. Sorry can’t help you there.
I left out the 2005 stats because I’m distrustful of stats below A-ball.
I’ve seen Martinez a couple of times, and he sparkled in both games. His glove was really solid, and he even made a couple of spectacular plays in the hole. He may not have the greatest speed, but seems to have good lateral quickness.
He also scalded the ball in every plate appearance, including cranking one over the left field wall that had plenty behind it. I wasn’t expecting much, but I walked away impressed and had to look him up.
Off the subject, I was doing a little research tonight and have come conclusion that the best right handed starter in the system has to be Tyler Herron at this point. And if that is the case, is Ottavino second? As of late, he has had quite a bit of trouble finding the plate.
http://www.whiteyball.com
ottavino has had a lot of trouble finding the plate lately, but it shouldn’t be a surprise as he has walked too many his entire (while still short) career. he now has 56 walks in 133 innings this year (3.8 BB/9). last year he walked 32 in just 65.1 innings (4.4 BB/9). he has improved a little, but not much. i made a post after his last start talking about his problems with the walk and the homerun, and i think it is a real concern heading into next year where he will be punished for those with the hitting friendly environment of the texas league.
it seems like the cardinals have drafted a lot of these types in recent years. chris lambert, mark mccormick, adam ottavino, and chris perez are all first round college righthanders who had great stuff, but no clue how to pitch. ottavino and perez are still young and have time to figure it out, but the early returns are not encouraging. i find it pretty funny that the most polished first round pitcher out of those 3 drafts is the lone high school pitcher tyler herron.
its not just the first rounders who can’t throw strikes, it is pretty much every college pitcher they draft early. eric haberer almost walks as many as he strikes out. mitch boggs walks as many as ottavino. brad furnish was decent early on, but he is walking a ton of guys now. gary daley is a complete disaster, eddie degerman can’t find the zone, and tyler norrick walks a guy every other inning. one consistent theme when you look at these guys, they all walked a ton of guys in college. we seem to think we know what is wrong and how to fix the deliveries or something, but we haven’t been able to improve one of these guy’s control.
the only college pitcher they have drafted this decade in the early rounds who has been good for anything was danny haren, and he walked basically no one in the minor leagues. instead of trying to follow that strategy, it seems like the cardinals in recent years have fallen in love with the radar gun and have forgot to look for guys that know how to pitch. i don’t know what irritates me more, none of these draft picks working out, or the cardinals continuing to draft college righty after college righty in the early rounds when their success rate with those picks has been abysmal.
its extremely early, but it looks like they may have finally changed their strategy and acutally drafted some college pitchers that know how to throw strikes this year in clayton mortensen and jess todd. lets hope these guys can hold it together as they move up.
Think poor man’s Betancourt. Walk rates, power numbers, size, less range, but maybe just as solid otherwise. I don’t know who his defensive contractors are, but I’m venturing to guess they’re not watching him over a long period of time. Every time I see him play he does something else that makes me say wow, that was impressive. Maybe it’s because I’ve been watching Eckstein a lot over the last few years, but he looks to me like he could hold down an every day job defensively.
Regarding the Cards’ strategy for drafting pitchers:
I’m fine with taking risks on guys like Ottavino, McCormick and Perez. If they can develop command, they could be devastating. If not, well, most draftees don’t work out. At least with these guys, we can all see the potential.
That said, I’m beginning to wonder why the Cards aren’t drafting more high school pitchers. Somebody seems to be doing a good job scouting. Jaime Garcia may have been a lucky fluke, but whoever scouted Tyler Herron was on the money. Deryk Hooker, the 7th rounder from this year’s draft, looks like he could be another astute choice.
And some of the guys coming up from the Latin American program look great in the box scores — Rosales, Carlos and Reynier Gonzalez, maybe Elvis Hernandez (although he seems to have more control problems this season).
Maybe that’s the key to developing pitching: Get ‘em while they’re young.