Hat tip to commenter David for supporting my lazy habit and digging up Mike Venafro. I wonder if he isn’t insurance against Tyler Johnson getting hurt again.
There’s a pair of draft related articles over at Baseball Prospectus (both require subscription). The first is by Nate Silver and it basically shows the declining relationship between how early the draftee is taken and the WARP that draft position has produced historically. The short version is that the top picks provide more value than the picks there after and it decreases the further down the draft you go.
The other article is by Kevin Goldstein. He discusses the relative failure that was the slotting process. Draft bonuses were up 10% this year rather than down 10% as MLB’s slotting system tried to enforce. A few albatross contracts are to blame for this by-and-large but the system is simply broken. Here’s a quote that sums up the article nicely:
Most industry insiders agreed that 2008 will bring some changes, but nobody had much of an idea as to what they would be, other than the spiral continuing out of control. “I can tell you two things right now that are going to happen next year,” predicted a scouting director. “First off, everyone is going to wait until the 15th to start negotiations, because they now saw that those who waited are those who got paid. Secondly, when you have teams like Washington and Baltimore suddenly playing with the big boys, more teams are going to say ‘hey, we tried your way and it didn’t work, and now we’re going against it too because we have to compete here,’ and they will walk away from the recommendations and the whole system has a good chance to come tumbling down.”
That’s enough draft talk though. Blake Hawksworth shows signs of life. Colby Rasmus goes boom. Kenny Maiques saves a game. And the GCL Cardinals do some crazy stuff. Read all about it in your Daily Prospect Report.
- Jarrett Hoffpauir went 2-for-3 with a pair of walks. He’s batting .312/.388/.435 with a BABIP that appears just a smidge high but not by much. That’s a pretty encouraging line as all of his BB rate and K rate have both stayed intact. It’s above average production and the OBP slots nicely at the top of a batting order.
- Nick Stavinoha went 2-for-5 with a double.
- An encouraging outing for Blake Hawksworth. He went 5 innings (on 86 pitches) allowing 2 ER on 3 hits and 2 BBs while striking out 8. He’s struck out 22 in his last 15 innings. Maybe he’s getting things turned around. . .
- Mark Worrell allowed just 1 hit in 2 scoreless innings while striking out 2. He’s struck out 57 in 58 innings this season.
Springfield 2, San Antonio 1(Game 1: 7 innings)
- Colby Rasmus went 3-for-3 with a double, a HR and a walk.
- Amaury Cazana Marti and Mark Hamilton also collected a pair of hits.
- PJ Walters threw 5 scoreless innings striking out 3.
- Kyle McClellan allowed a run while retiring 3 hitters in the 6th via the strikeout and Jason Motte finished 7th with a scoreless frame (1BB & 1K).
Springfield 0, San Antonio 1 (Game 2: 7 innings)
- Jose Martinez went 2-for-3.
- Eric Haberer pitched a complete game loss. . . well 6 innings at least. He allowed just 1 run on 2 hits but hit a batter, walked 5 and struck out 0. Kinda a weird box score.
- Mark Shorey went 2-for-4 with a double and a HR.
- Luke Gorsett went 2-for-3 with a HR and a walk.
- Tyler Norrick threw 7 innings allowing 2 runs. He struck out 6 against 1 BB and 5 hits lowering his ERA to 3.75.
- Luke Gregerson picks up the save allowing 2 hits and both of Jon Mikrut’s bequeathed runners to score.
- Steve Hill went 2-for-4 with a double. His BABIP is still a crazy high .437 over 200+ PAs. I’m not sure what he’s doing but that is bound to regress to the mean.
- Brandon Dickson threw 6 innings allowing 6 hits, 1 BB and striking out 4.
- Kyle Mura threw a pair of scoreless frames striking out 3.
- Kenny Maiques continues to etch the QC record book with his 28th save.
- Tyler Henley went 1-for-4 with a BB and his 11 SB of the season.
- Daniel Descalso went 2-for-2 with a pair of walks.
- Blake King took the loss allowing 4 ER on 6 hits in 3 innings. He doesn’t look close to getting it together this season.
- Josh “Mountain Dew” allowed 2 hits in a scoreless 9th striking out 2.
- Peter Kozma went 1-for-4.
- Jon Edwards went 0-for-2 with a pair of walks. At 19, he’s got a nice walk rate (12%) and a good ISO (.180) but he isn’t making contact enough striking out in 30% of his PAs.
- Nick Vera went 2-for-3.
- Travis Mitchell went 2-for-4 with a double.
- Senger Peralta started the game with 4 innings allowing 1 run on 2 hits, 2 HBP and 1 BB while striking out 4.
- Matt Spade pitched a perfect 9th.
GCL Cardinals 5, GCL Dodgers 12
- 1B Edwin Conde went 2-for-5.
- LF Jairo Martinez went 3-for-5 with a double.
- C Luis De La Cruz went 2-for-4 with a double.
- Starter Francisco Samuel dug the hole deep and quick allowing 6 runs in 3 innings walking a startling 7 batters, while throwing 6 wild pitches.
- Equally crazy, James Hooker struck out 11. . did that sink in yet? 11 batters in 4 innings. He allowed 3 BIP. 11 batters in 4 innings struck out. 11 punchouts. 11 Ks. 11. (He also walked 1 and allowed 2 hits for 1 unearned run.)
Filed under: Daily Farm Reports
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
So what does our man Hooker throw? What’s his velocity?
He’s listed at 6-4, 185, so he has a nice frame for an 18-year-old pitcher.
Could be a heck of a find for the 7th round.
Lou–BA’s scouting report says–
Sounds interesting enough. clearly he’s a man among boys in the GCL, probably should be moved to at least JC or even Batavia.
maybe the reason they didn’t sign russell is b/c we already have a righthanded version that is 2 years younger. jon edwards has some exciting tools (huge power, 97 mph arm from right), but he has a lot of work to do.
Great seeing the higher level pitchers do well. What do you believe is the ceiling for those 2 (Walters and Hawksworth)? Hawk has struggled this year, but he still has a couple of years to make it and we often forget that he hasn’t pitched that much in the higher levels.
Paul. It’s hard for me to say about Walters because he’s more of a trick pitcher in a way, he doesn’t throw very hard but gets by with throwing a variety of off speed stuff, particularly his change up which breaks like a screw ball. I his ceiling as a 4th/5th starter or middle relief maybe.
Hawksworth I see as potentially a 4th/5th starter. Goold has said some on the org compare him to Jeff Suppan. Glad to see him rebound, for a while there he was looking really bad.
Another interesting thing of note last night—Colby leading off. Maybin and Upton (2 HS OF from same class) already in bigs. Eckstein a free agent. See where I’m going?
Who do you guys think has been more impressive so far, Hooker or Mortensen?
Also, do you guys know if Hooker goes by James or Deryk?
Paul, at this point I might be more inclined to try the Hoff at leadoff next year moreso than Rasmus, unless Rasmus goes on an absolute tear the rest off the season I think he needs some time in AAA next year. He will also have enough power to be more of a middle of the order type, might as well have some guys on base for all of those XBH’s he collects.
i believe he goes by deryk
we put him down as james because firstinning’s player linker only works with that name. We could do it manually, but doing that night in and night out for almost every player that’s name isn’t exactly right gets tedious.
The notable omission from Goldstein’s analysis/editorial is any discussion of what bonuses might have been had MLB not tried to cajole teams into respecting slot values. Regardless of whether you agree with MLB’s approach, Goldstein’s absence of discussion of a pretty obvious flip side of the coin left me a little underwhelmed by his article.
If my city starts an initiative to get 100% compliance on emissions registrations of vehicles and only gets 90% compliance the first year, does that mean it was a failure? Maybe so, maybe not…but there’s room for debate.
Sidd — I follow what your saying but the point of the draft is for the worst teams to get the best talent. That isn’t happening right now. I don’t have the answers but the system is broken.
Agree, Sidd. He also should have compared it to more than one year.
IMHO the obvious solution to the draft problem is to enforce a fair slot amount and have all the money for the draft itself come out of a central pot that all teams contribute to equally, whether they have the #1 choice or the 30th. Draft picks should be chosen based on talent, not signability. It’s not fair to punish poor teams who finished last the year before by forcing them to either fork out a significant amount of their available free agent money for signing bonuses (on players who have a good chance of either fizzling or not being useful for 3-5 years) or lose the chance of signing the best available player.
Without a salary cap in baseball, I’m not sure there is a solution to this problem. In the NBA, draft picks get a certain amount based on where they were drafted. They have a set amount of money for each spot in the draft. In that system, teams pick the best player, not the player who best fits the team’s budget. I don’t see anything like that happening in baseball though.
Azru,
I agree with you. But when I read Goldstein’s editorial the other day, my take-home message was the 10% / 20% argument….which doesn’t neccessarily hold water.