Through the first 10 rounds, here is what the division spent on signing bonuses:
(Per Baseball America)
- Chicago Cubs $4,932,250 12th overall MLB
- Cincinnati Reds $4,352,250 13th
- Pittsburgh Pirates $4,162,900 14th
- St. Louis Cardinals $3,781,000 18th
- Milwaukee Brewers $3,177,700 25th
- Houston Astros $536,000 30th
Just a few thoughts here:
- Had the Cardinals signed Kyle Russell for his $1.4 M sticker price, they would’ve led the
leaguedivision by spending $5,181,000. Russell and Stutes would’ve pushed them well above the pack. - While the Cardinals won’t get confused with the Yankees or Tigers when it comes to spending on draft picks anytime soon, they are pretty much middle of the pack. Interestingly, the bonuses they paid surpassed big market teams like the Red Sox, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, White Sox and Angels.
- The Astros. Just wow. First of all, they lose their 1st round and supplemental first round picks by signing Carlos Lee and (shudder)…Woody Williams. Ouch. Then, they fail to sign Derek Dietrich and Brett Eibner, their 3rd and 4th round picks, respectively. That leaves them with their 5th rounder Collin Delome as their top draft pick. For all the crap I’ve given the Cardinals for being too cheap to sign Russell, I’m sure Astro fans are now forming an angry mob ready to go after Tim Purpura. Not good, especially considering Kevin Goldstein ranked their system 28th in the majors overall going into the season. What were they thinking?
BA had the Astros as one of the big losers of the draft, along with…Kyle Russell.
Russell, a fourth-round pick of the Cardinals, is a Texas outfielder who at least has the advantage of heading into his junior season, but he’ll be hard-pressed to do better than the Longhorns-record 28 homers he hit this spring.
I hadn’t though of it that way before, thus the earlier edition of “fact or crap”. I wonder if he’ll change teams minds and play convincingly enough to help his status. John Manuel doesn’t seem to think so in his latest chat.
Brian Daniels from Kennesaw Mountain Landis, Georgia asks:
John, wondering if Kyle Russell shot himself in the foot going back to Texas or do you think it was a wise move?
It’s hard to imagine Russell matching the season he had, but clearly he has holes in his swing with wood–showed that in the Area Codes three years ago, showed that in the Cape, showed that this summer in the California Collegiate League. I think he will be hard-pressed to change scouts’ minds by playing with metal again at Texas.
Seems like a lose-lose outcome to me. We’ll see.
While I haven’t been a huge fan of this draft and the outcome of the Russell kerfluffle left me pretty steamed, I like have to admire how calculated they were and how Luhnow worked within the budget he was given. The early returns have been pretty nice-
- Kozma in rookie ball is hitting .296/.367/.426 in 60 plate appearances.
- Mortensen has a 2.09 fielding independent ERA in A ball.
- Kopp is out with tendinitis in his arm…not good, but it happens.
- Todd has a 2.25 FIP in 50 IP for Batavia.
- Descalso was a real head scratcher to be sure, but in August he’s hit .319/.360/.468.
- Eager hasn’t been real good, but has shown flashes.
- Deryk Hooker has struck out 31% of the batters he’s faced for the GCL team.
- Henley has hit .333./.442./.381 in Batavia for the month.
- Riportella was hitting .320 before hitting the DL.
I’m not saying this bunch doesn’t have their flaws or that they ooze with upside, and there is that Oliver Marmol guy. I guess I’m saying that in the early going, Luhnow did a decent job picking guys who fit the budget. And that’s not mentioning some possible steals in Steve Hill, Nick Derba, and Arnoldi Cruz who have all hit well for a full season team. And to top it off, they signed all their high school players, with the exception of the round 40ish guys.
There, that makes me feel a tad bit better.
Filed under: 2007 Draft













pete kozma hit his 2nd homer in 17 games with johnson city. is it possible we sold his power a little short?
I was going to post something similar about Russell a few days ago prior to him being declared the big loser…
If your goal in life is to play in the bigs and you are presented with an opportunity to start down that path immediately AND be set up financially for life, isn’t it kind of crazy to assume any amount of risk so you can pocket $1.5 million instead of $800k? Obviously he’s entitled to take any negotiating position he wants, but he could really regret this.
A prediction — When we look back at this draft 10 years from now, the guy we’ll regret not signing will be Stutes, not Russell. I was lucky enough to see Stutes pitch both in high school and college, and I’d bet on him making it.
Has Stutes told anyone why he didn’t sign with the Cards? I saw him in the CWS this year, thought he was a gutsy guy, and couldn’t wait for him to start pitching for us.
But then, that’s what I thought about Eddie Degerman in 2006, with the caveat that he was a gutsy guy with a weird straight-over-the-top delivery who walked a lot of people.
Interestingly, Henley’s been a lot like what I saw of him in the CWS — really, really patient and selective hitter. It’s like he’s been training all his life to be a leadoff hitter.
The draft discussions led me to wonder about two things:
1. Does anyone know what fraction of the Cards “recruiting” budget goes towards signing draft picks, signing free agnets, and running develolpment camps in, for example, Latin America?
2. Among current major leaguers what kind of correlation exists between draft round and salary. If draft round was a great predictor, we’d see a nice straight pattern, but do we?
Sportsman — Rany Jazayerli did a study of the draft back in 2005. It had like 4-5 parts. If you go to Baseball Prospectus and search his name and draft you’ll find the links.
Not clear on some of your comments. signing Russell would have pushed them to the top of the league? Did you mean the top of the division? Signing Stutes would have pushed them above the Cubs? - was Stutes wanting more than a million?
CC-thank god for the edit button. sorry.
what is the source of the bonus data - BA?
Carioca — BA has totals for each team here. (Subscription)