Kevin Goldstein, whom I think does a great job covering prospects over at Baseball Prospectus, has an article up about prospects “learning tools” (subscription). The idea being can prospects make strides in the 5 tools (and plate discipline) beyond their inherent ability; can they be taught? After the amazing article (free - must read!) Kevin wrote about the draft, I was sorely disappointed with the tools article. Kevin discussed the topic with multiple scouts and quotes them over the course of the article. I don’t know if it’s the way the quotes are presented or just marginally diverging opinions, but the article devolved into one scout saying that a player can make small improvements while another scout says they can’t. At the end of the article, I’m left with this feeling that we haven’t really made any progress on the topic at all.
Mr. Goldstein also had a chat yesterday. The Cardinals related quote:
Bill J (New Mexico): How much of a leg up does college experience give a guy who’s just arriving at A ball? I ask because St. Louis has two guys from later rounds in their 2007 draft, Steve Hill and Nick Derba, who are absolutely terrorizing the Midwest League after brutalizing NY/Penn. Any chance they’re real sleepers, or is this a case of 21-year-old college kids having effectively bypassed the level just because they were in college?
Kevin Goldstein: Depends on the kid, and depends on the college. One team source tells me the ‘07 draftee on that Quad Cities team who’s the real sleeper is neither Hill nor Derba, but rather Arnoldi Cruz.
Interesting, but we kind of already knew that didn’t we?
Also, Dr. Rany Jazayerli has an interesting Unfiltered post on the compensation pick for team’s that lose out on their 1st-3rd rounders. He lays out his argument in a very straightforward and convincing fashion while discussing baseball in a slightly unconventional manner — game theory. (Can I root for the Tigers just during the draft?) Quoting:
This is classic game theory: a rule change that should give teams more leverage in general – because they have a better BATNA than before – gives a specific team in a specific circumstance (a team that drafts a top talent late in the first round) less leverage specifically. And we know it only takes one outlier to drive up values for the market as a whole.
If I was Mark Shorey, I’d be more than a little upset at my demotion to High-A. He’s been outperforming Sean Danielson but with the additions of Marti and Uncle Rico Washington someone had to go.
Jon Edwards goes boom. Adam Ottavino attempts to walk it out (horrible pop-culture reference intended). It’s a rather quite night down on the farm as the Springfield slide continues. Get it hot off the press — your Daily Prospect Report.
- Nick Stavinoha goes 1-for-3 with a walk.
- Jarrett Hoffpauir goes 0-for-4.
- Mike Smith allowed 10 hits in 6 innings including 2 homeruns.
- Colby Rasmus (who is OK after getting hit by a pitch on the elbow) went 2-for-4 with a walk.
- Rico Washington went 3-for-4 with a walk.
- Bryan Anderson went 2-for-5.
- Mitchell Boggs allowed 11 hits in 6 innings for 5 ER. While he struck out 5, he allowed 2 doubles and a HR.
- Mike Sillman threw a scoreless frame walking 1.
- Jason Motte allowed a walk and a solo-HR in the 9th.
Palm Beach 7, Vero Beach 1 (Game 1: 7 innings)
- Brandon Yarbrough went 3-for-3 with a triple.
- Allen Craig went 1-for-2 with a walk. Craig and Yarbrough each stole a base as well.
- Adam Ottavino went all Blake King on us. He walked 6 in 6 innings allowing 1 unearned run , 3 hits and striking out 2. Ottavino’s peripheral indicators remain pretty good. He has 115K:50BB in 128 innings. I’d like the walk rate down a bit but it’s not terrible. He’s hovering right around 50% groundball rate as well. His FIP is below 4 and he looks to be ready for AA next year.
Palm Beach 5, Vero Beach 4 (Game 2: 7 innings)
- Defensive miscues on the part of both teams was huge in this game. The PB team capitalized on those mistakes despite recording just 2 hits and 1 walk.
- Trey Hearne struck out 5 in 4 innings of work allowing 3 runs (1 earned).
- Scott Vander Weg and Luke Gregerson pitched scoreless 6th and 7th innings for the win and the save, respectively.
Quad Cities and Batavia had the night off.
- Peter Kozma went 2-for-5.
- Mike Folli went 2-for-4 with a walk.
- Jon Edwards went 3-for-4 with a double, HR and a walk.
- Andres Rosales threw 4 innings allowing 1 ER on 2 hits and a walk while striking out 6.
- Mark Diapoules (Is that a Greek last name? Just curious. . .) hurled 3 innings allowing just one hit while striking out 5.
GCL Cardinals 1, GCL Marlins 4
- Guillermo Toriobo went 3-for-4.
- Mark McCormick began his rehab with a single scoreless inning striking out 1. It will be interesting to see if he heads to the Arizona Fall League.
- Matt North got torched for 4 runs in 2 innings.
Filed under: Daily Farm Reports
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
It’s kinda sad that we don’t have a single dominant starting pitcher in our minor league system. Jaime Garcia, our best starting pitching prospect, has the upside of a solid #3 starter. I wish we had taken/signed Porcello, so we could finally have someone with Ace upside in our system.
Mike:
I think Ottavino has better upside than Garcia and everyone else. McKormick definitely has that kind of upside. PJ Walters keep it going. I do agree that it would be nice if there was a philosophical change and we started drafted more power guys.
I think Ottavino is up there with Garcia, but much like Garcia, I really dont think he has the stuff to be much better than a #3 or so. I guess our best hope is that one of these guys turns out to be a Brandon Webb/Fausto Carmona type. Guys who made themselves into Ace Groundball pitchers (although Fausto showed last night that he can certainly strike people out if necessary). But hell, I suppose in this day and age, if you can put together a rotation of 5 #3 type pitchers, that’s not half bad.
i think garcia has #2 upside as he is a lefty with a sinking fastball in the 92-94 range, a plus curve, and i have read his change has plus potential. those are some very good tools for any pitcher and especially a lefthander, but you are right we have no pitcher with ace potential (joba chamberlain would have been nice in the draft last year).
azrua, i know you said ottavino looks to be ready for AA next year, but i am a little worried about the transition for him. he has done a lot better with the walks in the last couple months (except for yesterday of course), but his strikeout rate has crumbled. he struck out 66 in 61 first half innings, but he only has 49 strikeotus in 67 innings in the second half. another thing that has me very concerned is his homerun rate. 10 homers in 128 innings doesn’t look like a whole lot, but that is a lot of homeruns allowed in the florida state league. we all know that homerun rates sky rocket when pitchers move up to springfield and i am thinking those 10 homers would translate to 25-30 homers in the texas league. his ERA is merely solid right now, and it would baloon up close to 5 with those added homers (i guess i am seeing a lot of chris lambert in ottavino).
for reference on the homerun rate, chris lambert allowed 4 homers in 54.2 innings in palm beach. that is a ratio of 0.66 HR/9. ottavino’s ratio is even worse at 0.70 HR/9. lambert moved up that season and gave up 10 more homers in 85 AA innings (1.06 HR/9). in his full season at AA he gave up 20 homers in 120.2 innings (1.49 HR/). his homerun rate more than doubled. lambert isn’t the only one this has happened to. jaime garcia was very good at limiting the long ball last season as he only allowed 4 homers in 155 innings (3 in 77.1 innings at palm beach). he went from a 0.35 HR/9 rate at palm beach to a 1.22 HR/9 rate in springfield (14 homers in 103.1 innings). his rate more than tripled. judging by these numbers, ottavino is looking at anywhere from 20-30 homers allowed next year if he pitches between 120 and 130 innings.
now looking at some of the other top pitching prospects in the florida state league this year (also 2006 first round picks). andrew miller gave up 1 homer in 41.1 innings. joba chamberlain gave up 0 homers in 40 innings. ian kennedy gave up 2 homers in 63 innings. none of these guys are even close to the homerun rate ottavino has shown. (wouldn’t joba chamberlain look pretty good as the first round pick right about now? i know he had some injury questions, but he was widely reguarded as a top 10 talent that we could have had at #30. i think it would have been worth the risk).
if you didn’t know (or can’t tell from this post) there are 2 things i hate from pitching prospects and they are walks and homeruns. ottavino has a problem with both. while i like him and think he is one of the best we have, i am very nervous about his transition to AA next year (and i think the cardinals are too and that’s why he hasn’t been promoted this season). i hope he does great, but if it were up to me i would be looking to move him this off-season if i could get something valuable.
The decsion to pass on Joba Chamberlin for Ottavino who signed for less then slot and then to pass on Brett Anderson 3 or 4 times last season, only to take a LHP who was 3 years older and less polished is one of the reasons why we dont have a dominant starter right now.
I have been pretty hard on them lately b/c of money….but it might as much, if not more about their lack of scouting and talent evaluating.
To think a guy like Gary Daley was worthy of a high pick was odd at the time and even more puzzling now. To pass on Anderson who signed for 950K, again was puzzling.
Could have taken the money given to Matt North and Casey Mulligan would have paid for the diff between Anderson and Furnish.
It sounds like a cheap cliche`…..but You Get What You Pay For.
Fewgood, how much did Joba sign for last year? Was he a big dollar guy like Porcello?
he signed for over slot, but not that much. he got $1.1 million and we paid ottavino $950,000. ottavino was the 30th pick, and we gave tyler greene that same $1.1 million bonus as the 30th pick the year before.
That is funny, Fewgood and I posted about the same thing at the same time. We gotta stop chatting, we are turning into the same nasty draft monster:)
Ottavino was a good pick, but he was a slight reach and not many would be talking about, if not for the pure dominance that Joba has shown so early.
But it goes back to the philosphy….during the draft Colby’s dad posted something about how Colby was drafted and how the Cards called and offered a certain amount and says will you sign for that or not? Then they drafted him.
Colby got 100k to 200k less then slot and from Mr. Rasmus says, the Cards draft best player for what they want to pay.
Paraphrasing there, but that wast he gist of it.
When money is on par with the MPH, HR Power and Running Speed in your scouting report..well your going to struggle to field great talent.
People say the draft is a crapshoot…but it sure seems you get what you pay for now aday’s
FGC - His HR/Air out is right around normal. Your making comparisons to pitchers who all dominated High-A ball in <60 innings and moved quickly. I can’t stress enough how important sample sizes are but these comparisons seem overblown to be. Take the top three pitchers in any league and a lot of other prospects won’t compare well to them. The team has been tweaking Ottavino’s delivery and repertoire this season and I attribute some of his struggles to that. With regards to his strikeout rate, pitchers go through periods where they strike out a few less batters. 49/67 is still an acceptable strikeout range (although it is approaching too low for a prospect).
Overall, the idea that a pitchers numbers have to deteriorate at the next level isn’t entirely true. Prospects can and do hold steady or improve numbers as they advance. Furthermore, we’re talking about someone who pitches off of a 4-seam fastball up in the zone (or he did previously), which is something that tends to lead to more HRs. Pitchers can still be successful flyball/strikeout pitchers but most of those tend to be more susceptible to the HR.
If I was watching all of Ott’s games down in Florida, I might notice that he isn’t commanding his fastball or that his secondary pitches hadn’t developed yet: things I can’t really get from the stat line. If the Cardinals decided to start him at Palm Beach next year, I wouldn’t be heartbroken but I think he’s ready to move up to the Texas League.
i too think he is ready to move up, i just questioned how well he would do. i didn’t only compare him to miller, chamberlain, and kennedy (one guy they had a chance to draft and one guy they did draft btw), i also compared him to 2 cardinal prospects in lambert and garcia. sure he can still be successful, but i don’t see how you can deny that homerun rates don’t go up in the texas league. he has a lot of work to do in the area of fastball command and gaining more consistency with his off speed pitches. hopefully he finds that next year and dominates at springfield, i just don’t think it is likely.
i also don’t see why we can’t compare him to the top 3 pitching prospects in the league. i know comparing him to miller isn’t very fair, but kennedy was drafted pretty close to ottavino and chamberlain was drafted after him. i think chamberlain is a very fair comparison as you would expect ottavino to be better based on draft position, but as we have seen he is not even close.
I was at the PB game last night. Ottavino has a long way to go. I would venture to say that AA is going to be rough going. His command just is’t there, against selective hitters which he will see at the next level I believe he will struggle. His velocity is impressive, but I don’t see the movement. 95 is 95 but it still has to be in the strike zone. I think it would be a good move for him to repeat PB until he gets his command issues under control.
ott is entitled to a bad game or two. just saying
Looking at the stats for Adam Ottavino, Tyler Norrick, and Brad Furnish (K/9, BB/9, WHIP, ERA, HR/9, etc), it looks like most of them have been well above league average for most of the year, but have been collapsing towards average as the season goes on. Might we just be seeing fatigue setting in? This is the first full year for all three of them.
The thing i love about Ott so far that in his worse month, which is this one, his Era is still a very nice 3.86
Even with his 6 Walks yesterday he has only waled 17 in his last 61 innings.
Sorry i ment to put this with my last post
bob, thanks for the first hand report. the only problem i have with what you said is i don’t see how he is going to improve his command at palm beach when he can get by with bad command. i think the only way he is going to improve his command is if he goes up to springfield and sees that he has to improve it to pitch well.
There are many factors as to why the cards haven’t promoted ottavino, and his stats aren’t one of them. I was also at the game last night. He had control issues, but like someone else mentioned as of late his walks have been very low. His velocity was also up to 98.
His strikeout rate has been declining towards the end of the season and I would venture to say it has something to do with him throwing the 2-seam more often. The 2-seam is a ground ball pitch and if hes throwing it more often then he used to, then thats probably the reason for the decline in K’s. I don’t know the statistics and someone could probably look it up but I would guess that as his K/9 decrease his GO/9 has increased.
That does seem to be right. Here’s the data (I really hope this formats right.)
GO/AO GO/9 K/906 April 0.50 3.00 11.25
12 April 1.29 6.00 9.00
17 April 1.64 7.2 7.80
23 April 1.77 7.02 9.15
28 April 1.73 6.5 10.50
03 May 2.33 7.24 10.55
08 May 1.46 6.39 10.09
14 May 1.36 6.16 10.22
19 May 1.25 5.71 10.93
24 May 1.26 5.78 10.88
30 May 1.26 6.00 10.29
05 June 1.20 5.89 10.33
10 June 1.11 5.9 9.74
20 June 1.17 6.09 9.67
25 June 1.20 6.24 9.48
30 June 1.26 6.44 9.33
06 July 1.23 6.48 9.10
12 July 1.11 6.30 8.78
17 July 1.14 6.41 8.69
23 July 1.18 6.44 8.80
28 July 1.21 6.59 8.64
03 August 1.25 6.74 8.40
08 August 1.25 6.74 8.34
15 August 1.26 6.84 8.09
I’ve put this in chart format here.
am i the only one that is concerned about all the homeruns he is giving up?