Kyle Russell’s team was eliminated Friday from the tournament, leaving him nothing to do other then decide between now and Wednesday if he’ll turn in his burnt orange for Cardinal red, and his aluminum bat collection for wood. But will he work out with wood?
He hasn’t so far. Last season in the Cape Cod league, he struck out a league record 64 times in 126 at bats. This season for the Foresters, Russell hit .247/.395/.443 with a team high 34 K’s in 97 at bats. Now anyone familiar with this site knows I’ve been banging the drum rather loudly for Russell. Over the last week he really has turned it on for his team when it mattered most, and when he was being watched the closest. But I would think someone with a .467 ISO in a pitcher’s environment like Disch-Falk Field would post better numbers then that. Against tougher competition and with wood bats, I find a .196 ISO decent yet underwhelming, and the 35% K rate is worse then I had hoped. I still think they should sign him, even if it is near 7 figures, but I thought he would’ve performed much better.
Marc Hulet at Baseball Analysts recently compared him to Russell Branyan. Branyan is a fun player, but he’s not someone who’s been able to stick anywhere. I still like Russell’s power potential and ceiling, but am not so sure he will be able to reach it. It seems worth a gamble, but how much with the Cards be willing to bet?
Consider my expectations tempered, no matter what happens between now and the 15th. Last word, Russell says there is an 80% chance he goes back to Texas.
Filed under: 2007 Draft, Kyle Russell
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
The more I hear about Russell, the more I wouldn’t mind not signing him. Russell Branyan? UGH! Its not like we are desperate for power hitters on the farm anymore. We have Hamilton, Craig, Buckman, Cruz, and Hill all improving. Of course another power bat never hurts, but this isn’t the sink or swim signing of the organization.
I really wanted Russel pre-draft but now I’m not even sure I want him at slot price! The Cards goofed big time by not taking the high risk pick in the third so they’d get a compensation pick if they couldn’t sign him.
If I knew that money would go towards a big Latin signing or towards signing Stutes and Zawacki, then I could understand not wanting to pay him.
But the dont spend left over money, they just pocket it.
So I dont care if he turns out to be Russell Branyan or Adam Dunn….they drafted him, they had him rated in their overall top 20 and they knew his demands before the draft…not signing him is a flawed and basically puzzling strategy.
This farm system still isnt great, its still not a top 10 system and its lacking in pure toolsy, highest level ceiling guys…..Russell would provide a power bat that rivals anyone in the minors and this farm system cant afford to throw away 142nd overall pick b/c they dont want to spend money.
Sign him….I could care less if it cost you 500k or 1.2M….this is not a poor org or owner…be nice for once to see them actually go above and beyond and say money isnt a factor here….talent is.
p’fork…not saying i don’t want him, he has too much potential to pass on him and it’s a waste of a draft pick if they don’t sign him. i just think his game looks more suspect that his power isn’t translating to wood, and against harder competition.
Pickle—I agree with what you say. Why would we pick a guy and not do what it takes to sign him? Just confusing.
Yea I understand that Erik and I tend to agree, but its not my money and the risk/reward on a player like this is worth the investment when you consider the more safe/conservative approach to drafting they have done the past 2 seasons.
Its not like if they sign him that money will be taken away from something else with the draft, they have already signed Zawacki (rumored) and Stutes isnt a make or break prospect. They have already finished the bulk of their Latin signings, so the $$ to Russell would come off the 2007 developmental budget.
I for one would like to see him signed, just to help justify the pick, justify going cheap with Mortensen at #36 and give us die-hards some confidence that the club bases its choices on talent, not money.
In my mind there are not negatives to his signing….even if he busts out, all it costs is money and something they have plenty of.
But if he ever put it together, we could have a star.
Again, its not like the money saved on Russell is going to be put to any use other then a couple extra grand towards paying off the Stadium Bond.
We will see…enjoy the site and the intelligent banter!
Where’s this Zawacki rumor coming from?
It was a rumor out at Scout, guy was supposedly his cousin and gave the thumps up earlier in the week.
But its not a rumor anymore, he is officially inked
Brett is scheduled to meet with a member of the Cardinals organization Tuesday to sign his contract with the team. He is then scheduled to leave Wednesday for Jupiter, Fla., to take a physical.
Link
{Azru edit: don’t paste entire news articles please}
My bad, it wasnt the whole article……but I understand.
Not a big deal. Besides it’s good news!
Just for the record, strikeout rates are generally based on plate appearances, not official at bats. Adding back walks, HBPs, and sacrifice flies, Russell has 124 plate appearances this summer and a strikeout rate of 27%. Not good, but not horrendous for a young power hitter. Ankiel’s at Memphis was around 21%.
Russell lets the ball get deep into the hitting zone before swinging. This increases his power but very likely makes it harder for him to adjust to the wood bat. It will take him longer than it will a singles hitter.
His summer season was disappointing, but remember he played just 29 games. Some our top minor league prospects have had unproductive stretches that long this season.
He is a risk for sure, but I’m not certain much has changed as far as projecting him as a prospect since he was drafted.
As far as his development, signing makes a lot of sense. He’s not going to improve using those pingy bats.
For reference, signing slot for Russell is $177,750. The Cardinals signed everyone from rounds 1-5 for slot with the exception of Mortenson who signed for 200,000 under slot.
It still baffles me why they didnt take him in the 3rd round….it provided compensation if you didnt get him signed and its almost 100K closer his demands.
Was Descalso someone that wasnt going to be there next round? And if he wasnt, could we have lived w/o him?
uncle grub…bad math on my part, that isn’t that bad really.
Erik, didn’t intend to criticize. Just wanted to make sure people didn’t compare the at-bats rate you used with plate appearance rates when checking Russell against other players.
Does he seem like another Chris Duncan or is that just me? Chris has struck out around 25% of the time throughout his career in the minors and majors. I would pay 1 mil for another duncan wouldn’t you?
Even with Russell’s obvious holes in his game, the potential payoff is huge. I sort of see the Russell Branyan comps, but Russell is quite a bit more athletic than Branyan, in my opinion. And as many have said before, the money isn’t going anywhere else, except back into someone’s pocket.
One more time, the cost of signing draft picks is a small fraction of what it takes to sign even a middle of the road free agent. Just sign the kid, damnit!
I noticed on the STLToday Forums that we picked up Brian Barden off waivers. I’m assuming the pickup was made with an eye to Travis Hanson leaving and as potential cover should Speezer not make it back from rehab.
Couple of questions. How does the pick up affect the roster, does Barden have to be added to the 25 or 40 man roster? If so who gets replaced?
Another thing, I love the site but I’d love to see an organisation wide depth chart to see how moves like this affect the organisation in the future. After all I’m seeing Allen Craig as the starting 3B at Springfield next year and Tony Cruz playing at Palm Beach but what happens to whoever is currently playing 3B for Springfield (Martinez?) if Barden is pencilled in as the Memphis 3B next year?
Should be Barden on to the 40 man roster and Hanson off.
Richardson is playing 3B for Springfield most of the time this year. (non propsect)
Barden isn’t a lock to stay on the 40 man roster over the winter - it’ll probably depend on how he does these last few weeks.
Richard–I have no idea what the ramifications are with the 40 man at the moment. I thought he was just freely available. We will probably have some sort of org. depth chart in the future, there is one on the sidebar right now avail. thru BB ref.
DGoold has a new blog up….unless Russell is the Phil Ivey of contract bluffing…he is going to back to Austin.
This is no surprise…just a complete waste of time, effort and a draft pick
“It’s not 100 percent sure as they could come with an offer in the next two days, but I’m sure I’ll be back,” Russell said. “It’s good. The whole time I’ve really wanted to come back to Texas. There’s nothing wrong with spending another year at the greatest university in the world.”
http://www.stltoday.com/blogs/sports-bird-land/2007/08/kyle-russell-hooked-by-horns/
Sorry I dont know how to do the fancy link url