Thanks everyone for their ideas you submitted in the suggestion box. Dave the Falconer suggested we steal borrow from John Sickels and have Cardinal centric prospect retros. Since Dave is stuck with the arduous task of blogging the Atlanta Falcons and all that dogs their tracks these days, I figured honoring his suggestion was the least that I could do. Hopefully this will be a nice little running series either I or AZ do from time to time. (And yes, that was a terrible pun.)
I thought of a number of different players I could’ve done, the one that interested me the most at the moment was Placido Polanco. I love Polanco. First of all, his name is fun to say. 2nd of all, he’s best friends with Albert Pujols, so that scores points. And last, his minor league numbers belied his true major league potential. Jumping right in-
He was selected by the Cardinals in the 19th round of the 1994 draft and signed shortly thereafter. He is from the D.R., but played a season at Miami-Dade College, a JUCO which has a pretty outstanding group of players at their school one time or another. For example, Mike Piazza, Bucky Dent, Steve Carlton, Mickey Rivers, Alex Fernandez, Jamie Navarro, John Cangelosi, Orlando Palmeiro, Raul Ibanez, Kiko Calero and Alex Sanchez. That’s something for a pretty small school. Back to Polanco- in his debut season as an 18 year old, he hit just .213/.259/.268 in 127 at bats for the rookie league AZ Cards, and wouldn’t have even registered a blip on anyone’s radar.
As a 19 year old he was playing in A ball for the Peoria Chiefs and hit just .266/.303/.324 in 361 at bats, playing most of his games at shortstop. That wouldn’t even draw a whisper among stat-driven analysts today, and maybe not even among scouts.
In 1996, he was moved up to A+ St. Petersburg and hit .291/.323/.363. He was a Florida State League All-Star as a utility man. He struck out in only 6.3% of his at bats while he walked less then 5% of his plate appearances. Think Juan Lucena at this point. He would probably considered a C grade prospect after that season, and considered a future utility infielder.
The next season Polanco was moved up to AA and did much of the same, hitting .291/.331/.346 in 508 at bats playing mostly at 2nd base now, earning him a trip to the Texas League All Star game. He also added steals to his game, swiping 19 bags while getting thrown out 5 times. He carried over that low walk rate of 5.4% like a scarlet Quad A, but still rarely struck out. He was 21 at the time, now think Springfield’s Jose Martinez with more line drives and less homers. As a middle infielder can be tolerable to live on contact if you can also have some speed and field your position well; but the lack of walks and power had to be somewhat disconcerting at the time. C+ may have been his grade, with the look of a decent utility infielder still.
In ‘98 he moved up to AAA and hit .280/.331/.378, showing a tad more selectivity, earning a call up mid-season in the utility role, spelling Joe McEwing at 2nd and Fernando Tatis at third. (Joe Mac! ‘Nando! Fun times! Sorta.) His presence made Adam Kennedy expendable, even though Kennedy was the superior prospect. He still was hitting for a .670ish OPS in the bigs, and didn’t look like anyone to get thrilled about.
Polanco still doesn’t walk a that much, doesn’t hit for much power, but that is an area of his game he developed some later on. He hit 17 homers for the Phillies in 2004. He’s a contact machine, striking out in just 7% of his major league at bats. He’s a line drive hitter and plays excellent defense. He’s famous for fetching Scott Rolen from the Phils and while Rolen’s been the better player over the long haul, I think most of us would like to have Polanco back right now. I seem to remember hearing not long ago when he was going to be a free agent, his now-ex agent failed to tell him of the Cardinals interest, and how they were willing to pay him $6 mil per year, and instead he resigned with the Phillies for peanuts, and they were still giving David Bell more playing time for some stupid reason. I’m happy he found a home with the Tigers, but it would be nice to have him in the Lou versus 2 more seasons of Kennedy-ism, for sure. This season he’s contending for a batting title, hitting .343.
Similar players in the farm system to Polanco:
Donovan Solano 19
Jose Martinez 21
Juan Lucena 23
Jarrett Hoffpauir 24
Hoffpauir walk rate is about double then Polanco’s, and and this season has shown some power. Since Hoffpauir has had his breakout season, Martinez is now the 2nd most interesting one of the group and probably the most similar to Placido. At least one of these players should end up becoming a big leaguer, and hopefully whoever that ends up being has some All Star caliber seasons in them as Polanco has had.
Filed under: Redbird recollections
erik
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I had only the vaguest ideas about stats when I first saw Polanco play, but I remember thinking early on that he was a potentially special player.
I got a chance to see the Cardinals play the Tigers at Tiger Stadium in ‘99, its last season. We were sitting with some Tiger fans, exchanging observations on our teams’ players. When Polanco came up late in the game (deep memory, but I think he was a pinch hitter/defensive switch), I said to the Tiger fans, “Watch this guy, he always seems to make good contact.”
Right on cue, if memory serves, he hit a line-drive single over shortstop.
I also remember thinking that he looked like he had room in his frame to get stronger, and if he did those singles might turn into doubles or even homers.
The irony, if you want to call it that, is that I was right on all those observations, but it happened for the benefit of the Tigers, rather than the Cardinals.
Sorry to be long-winded, but this reminded me of something I’ve noticed over the years when I’ve followed a prospect by box scores and stats, and then gotten a chance to see him in person or on TV when he reaches the majors.
It’s surprising how often what I see with my eyes doesn’t correlate with the impressions I’d formed from stats and box scores.
One example is Adam Kennedy. I’d thought I’d like him a lot as a ballplayer, but the first time I saw him on TV, I was surprised by his long swing. He seemed to have shortened it with the Angels, which I guess is why he had some success there.
Conversely, I had thought Chris Duncan would be an all-or-nothing, mistake-hitting brute. But I was surprised to see a smart, selective hitter. I don’t get to see many games on TV, and none in person the past two seasons, but when I watch Dunc’s at-bats, I see a lot more maturity and patience than I ever expected from looking at his minor-league numbers.
The interesting thing about Polanco is despite no so hot numbers the Cards kept promoting him each year. If I read correctly he never repeated a level. Yet his stats improved (even if by just a little) each year at a higher level. That is pretty impressive to me. Maybe we should be searching out guys like that who don’t have great stats, but who have shown improvement year to year at a higher level. That seems like a recipe for success to me.
It would seem that Solano shows the most versatility. Hopefully he can start hitting at AA next year
Nice job. I was wondering if Hoffpaiur’s performance this year is mirroring Polanco’s. It’s interesting that Polanco was always looked at as a utility player but he just kept hitting and playing defense and turned himself into a good major-leaguer. I wonder if Hoffpauir might do the same.
I like this feature.
I remember when Placido first came up (it was concurrent with Luis Ordaz). For whatever reason, I had gotten it in my head that those two were the second coming of Ozzie and Oquendo. Needless to say, I was wrong.
Awesome. Definitely picked a great player to start with; I couldn’t be unhappy that he was going the other way in the Rolen deal, but I always had a soft spot for Polanco. I look forward to seeing who’s up next.
But I’m barking mad about that pun.
How about a Dmitri Young Prospect Retro? It feels appropriate because we are playing the Nationals right now.
I remember watching some kind of feature before or during a Cardinals game about him when he was in St. Louis and they were showing him eating at the “Eat Rite” diner in downtown STL next to the stadium. That might explain why he looks like he couldn’t run a 40-yard dash.
Watching the game tonight, my wife just commented “you’d think a professional athlete could run from first base to the dugout to try to catch a pop fly without looking like he’s going to have a heart attack.”
Classic.
Perhaps you could also chart the evolution of his gut?