Future Redbirds

Now that the All-Star games are over, let’s have an All-Star list! (I told you this was coming.) Huzzah!  A list of the top prospects at each position within the organization (I’m going to do 5 starters and 5 relievers for the pitchers).  I’m leaving the definition of this list vague for a reason — these types of activities are universally subjective unless you just go by straight stats.  I’m going to try and make this list without looking at any stats and just looking at the rosters which is part of the fun and I hope will lead to some interesting conversations.  Things that matter to me: performance (I’m going by memory), age relative to level, projection.  Let’s get started.

C - Bryan Anderson - The easiest pick of the whole bunch.  He’s got things to work on and he may never hit for power but he can hit at a premium defensive position.  He’s hitting at AA as a 20 year old and doing it with seeming ease using all parts of the field.  I’m not sure there’s a prospect I feel more comfortable saying will make the majors even if he may not have the highest ceiling. 

1B - Mark Hamilton - This shouldn’t pain me as much as it does to write but I’m still not in the Hamilton camp.  I should be and everyone else seems to be but I’m just not there yet.  That being said, I can’t realistically pick Brandon Buckman over Hamilton and Tagg Bozied isn’t ever going to see a Cardinals uniform so I’ll pick Hamilton.  God forbid he ever see playing time in STL since we have Albert, but he could be a nice trade chip (Detroit, Atlanta, Cleveland).  The problem with 1B prospects is that there are always players in the majors moving right on the defensive spectrum; if you start out at 1B where are going to go?

2B - Jarrett Hoffpauir - There’s still room on the bandwagon as he appears to have made a tremendous step forward.  A product of the much maligned 2004 draft, if he makes the majors perhaps we can forget about Chris Lambert (or at least be less disappointed as his results).

SS - Jose Martinez - The Cardinals don’t have much in the way of middle infielders even before Tyler Greene went down.  Martinez has a fantastic contact rate but his lack of power and plate discipline leaves him a bit one-dimensional on offense.  Given that Greene probably wasn’t going to stick at SS before he blew out his knee, Martinez gets the nod because, frankly. . . . .there’s no one else.

3B - Allen Craig - I know everyone is fascinated with Arnoldi Cruz but I still haven’t seen any BIP data to know if he’s hitting lucky or good right now.  Allen Craig started off April on a tear before his production waned and he wound up on the DL.  Juan Richardson is old and Travis Hanson is terrible so Craig’s nice first half (month?) gets him the nod over Cruz’s first hundred ABs across 4 levels.

RF - Joe Mather - Another player that made huge strides before his promotion, Mather is the second coming of Terry Evans.  He’s scuffled at AAA but he’s 25 and may have a future in the big leagues as a bench player or maybe even a nice 5-year run as an everday player.  I wracking my brain for a better pick here because a half-season spike in numbers could be just that, a spike, but no one comes to mind. 

CF - Colby Rasmus  - You’re kidding youself if you think Rick Ankiel rates over Rasmus.  Despite his prodigous power, Ankiel is 27 and his move from pitcher to hitter is so unprecedented it’s hard to know if we’re watching a simple peak year or true talent level with Rick.  Rasmus has struggled badly as of late and I think calls for him to go to Memphis have finally (and sensibly) ceased.  He needs more time and I don’t expect him to be ready until 2009 but he’s still the best there is in the system. 

LF - Rick Ankiel - I’m cheating, I know — get over it.  I want to put Jon Jay here but much of his season has been destroyed by injuries.  Ditto Haerther.  Nick Stavinoha has never really blown me away.  I’m left with some middling options at the lower levels or cheating and picking Rick Ankiel.  Even if he’s peaking, power plays in the majors.  He’s got power.  A .300 ISO even off of crappy AAA pitchers is a .300 ISO.  You could swap Rick and Mather, whatever but what seemed like a dearth of OF prospects has dwindled rapidly.

SP - Jaime Garcia - Blah blah blah elbow pain.  He’s a groundball machine with great K% numbers even if the walks are higher at AA than A-ball.

SP - Adam Ottavino - He projects as a mid-rotation starter to some (Goldstein) and a reliever to others (Law).  I like Ottavino a lot as far as pitching prospects go.  More than I should perhaps but I think he’s got it in him to be something closely resembling a top of the rotation starter in the bigs.  Maybe not that year-in-year-out “Ace” pitcher but he’s still good.  As a short aside, I think the thing that worries me most about Carpenter going down is that there isn’t a single pitching prospect in the Cardinals system that profiles as a true ace.  Carpenter may be a harder player to replace than Albert Pujols.

SP - Eddie Degerman - His crazy delivery gives hitters fits but that may not happen at the higher levels.  He also has command that will completely abandon him from time to time leading to some high walk games and wild pitches.  He’s still fun as heck to watch though.

SP - Adam Daniels - He’s left-handed and the move up to AA has gone well thus far.  He may lack the secondary pitches to succeed as more than a back of the rotation starter and he’s kind of late to AA at age 25 but he’s still someone I like a lot.

SP - Tyler Herron - It’s really hard to pick out 5 starters.  Several other pitchers come to mind like Mitchell Boggs, PJ Walters or Elvis Hernandez who could all make the list.  I wish Herron was at a higher level but he’s still pitching well and had a streak in the last month or so where he was reeling off DPR-gems every 5 days.

RP - Jason Motte - Credit Dan with this one.  I’m hooked.  Plus-velocity on his fastball with an adequate slider can make for a daunting reliever.

RP - Mike Sillman - I’m thinking back to the Visualizing Pitchers graph of Memphis and how impressed I was with Sillman.  He’s made a trip to the disabled list and his sidearming ways may limit him to a ROOGy.  I still like him.

RP - Matthew Scherer - As a stats-based analyzer, Scherer would rank with Motte and Perez forming a dominant relief troika in Springfield.

RP - Kenny Maiques - I could go with Gregerson here but I’ve seen Maiques in person and I loved the movement he got on his fastball.  The velocity was good and hitters were baffled by it.  He looked like a major leaguer when I saw him and he’s having a nice year at QC.

CL - Chris Perez - I’m not as high on him as some and I have real concerns about his control but no one touches him on pure stuff among Cardinal relief prospects.  A fastball-slider pitcher with both pitches being above average, Perez seems to be headed for the St. Louis bullpen in short order. 

Alright, where did I go wrong?  I tried to go from my memory and gut reaction as much as possible but I must have left someone out.  So rip into it and tell me who should be out and who should be in.

(Disclaimer - this isn’t a prospect ranking nor a serious evaluation of the talent within the farm system.  It’s a fun, let’s hear what everyone think’s conversation starter.)