I made a claim Monday that I shouldn’t have made. I said:
But what’s odd is that the last two drafts have deviated from the success of 2005.
Now there are two reasons that this was a more aggressive statement than was fair at the time. 1) We’re looking at the 2006 draft with the benefit of another year. At the time, the 2005 draft looked good but I’m not sure it looked this good — i.e. two position players and a starting pitcher that project as above average regulars. So I’m saying Luhnow deviated from “success” when in 2006 it wasn’t as definitive either way — and it still may not be deemed a success. 2) This reason is more reckless on my part and it’s one I need to avoid. I hadn’t done my homework before hand. I was relatively sure that I was making a correct statement but it’s unfair of me to make characterizations without having done the research to verify them.
So I went back and looked at the 2005-2007 drafts to see what the numbers really were. Here’s the breakdown by my (hand-) count:
| Year | Picks | College | High School | Other |
| 2005 | 51 | 34 | 15 | 2 |
| 2006 | 53 | 38 | 14 | 1 |
| 2007 | 52 | 44 | 7 | 1 |
So we ARE seeing a trend away from the HS player. Now the caveat to this is that every draft is unique. But in a 2007 draft that was characterized as being big on HS arms, it’s stunning to see those numbers. I still think it’s too little data to draw out a draft philosophy from but still it is pertinent. Let’s try looking at just the first 10 rounds and see how that break down is:
| Year | Picks | College | High School | Other |
| 2005 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 0 |
| 2006 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 |
| 2007 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 |
Again, we see a relatively definitive trend away from HS players in the early rounds after the 2005 draft. I’m not going to take the time to try and recreate every pick. I’m sure there was a logical reason for each pick when it was made but the trends are there to be seen. So who were the HS players chosen?
2005: Rasmus, Tyler Herron, Joshua Wilson, Daryl Jones, Bryan Anderson, Wilfrido Pujols
2006: Matt North
2007: Pete Kozma, Deryk Hooker
Now I’m relatively certain that Wilson didn’t sign others will correct my mistakes in the comments. So you’ve got about half of those 6 players that are performing exceedingly well right now. Wilfrido looks like a dud and Jones has the tools but no results to show thus far. The returns on Rasmus, Herron and Anderson are promising thus far.
We know that a lot of the lower rounds revolve around filling out the organization and taking fliers on HS players but let’s see what kind of breakout we have in type of player.
| Year | Picks | Pitchers | Hitters |
| 2005 | 51 | 21 | 30 |
| 2006 | 53 | 25 | 28 |
| 2007 | 52 | 23 | 29 |
So nothing particularly definitive here. Maybe if we look just at the first 10 rounds again.
| Year | Picks | Pitchers | Hitters |
| 2005 | 14 | 7 | 7 |
| 2006 | 13 | 8 | 5 |
| 2007 | 12 | 6 | 6 |
Eh, not anything I really want to draw conclusions from. Just for fun, the list of first-rounders selected by Luhnow is Rasmus, Tyler Greene, Mark McCormick, Tyler Herron, Adam Ottavino, Chris Perez, Pete Kozma and Clayton Mortenson. As far as first round picks go, those could be a lot worse. You’ve got maybe 4-5 of the Cardinals top 10 prospects on that list with the only real bust being McCormick (although Greene still isn’t anything to brag about and now he’s blown out his knee again).
Now, I didn’t go look this up because I was trying to make a point about draft philosophy or what I wanted the Cardinals to do during the 2007 draft. I went and looked this up because I was lazy when I was remarking on Goold’s article I quoted in the Monday post. Everyone deserves better than that and I’m glad that I went and did the research. . .I really should have done so before hand. In fact, I’m so intrigued by these breakouts, I may try and do some more in the next couple weeks. I know the draft is only a month and a half removed but I’m not sure I get tired of pouring over the results.
Resources: 2005 Draft, 2006 Draft, 2007 Draft
Filed under: 2007 Draft
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
Wilson did sign. He pitched for JCin 2005 and started 2006 at QC before having shoulder surgery. He pitched a couple of games at Batavia this year before going back on the DL with more shoulder problems.
One impressive thing about the 2006 draft was how many players started the year at High A or higher. I belive it was 10 plus 2 other players who did not play professionally until 2006. (Garcia and Salas). There have been 7 who have moved up to that level since the start of the season. I thinking having 17 players from the 2006 draft at the High A level or higher by the mid year of their first full season is pretty good though I don’t have any comparison data for other years.
Josh Wilson signed, pitched well as a 18 year old and then had shoulder surgery in 2006. Started this season at Batavia, pitched well and it seems has re-injured his shoulder, possibly headed for another surgery.
http://thebaseballcube.com/players/W/Josh-Wilson-1.shtml
I think the 2006 draft was equal or better—definitely deeper. Hamilton is doing a ton. Ottavino might be better than anything the 05 draft turned out. Brandon Buckman in the 19th round looks pretty good. Not to mention Perez, Norrick, Walters, et al. 2 of the top 4 from 05 have already fizzled basically (McKormick and Greene). Wilson and Jones haven’t been what was expected. Its close, but I give the nod to 06.
An additional note to what I wrote above.
The 17 players who are already at High A don’t even include Pham and Edwards who were hihgly rated by most after their first season.
Wilson did sign
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Joshua%2520Wilson&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=457755
Well, it’s certainly not encouraging that Batavia, which is made up mostly of 2007 draftees, is off to a 7-21 start. Granted, you shouldn’t get hung up too much on W-L of minor league teams but that’s pretty awful, and hardly an endorsement of our draft so far.
Joshua Wilson did sign. He is currently playing for the Muckdogs.
Hurray for research. very interesting indeed, goes against our own knee jerk reactions.
also, Josh Wilson did sign. he has a shoulder injury, could be out for the season. that may be why you were unable to track him down.
We can quible about the make-up of the drafts but they atleast are better than the previous scouting departments drafts.
Nice catch everyone — he’s thrown 21 innings in the last two years. Looks like he just can’t stay healthy.
hey AZ, wilson signed…what the heck is wrong with you?
…man, our readers are ON IT. that’s awesome.
I’m not basing this on research so much as memory.
But didn’t our picks in ‘05 and ‘06 sign pretty quickly? Weren’t the big names signed by mid-July? Tyler Greene, for example, played 35 games in the NYPL in ‘05, then went up to Palm Beach for 20 games, plus the playoffs.
That’s another reason why I’m uneasy about this draft. It doesn’t seem that the scouts and cross-checkers did their homework as well as in previous seasons. In addition to Kozma and Russell, we haven’t signed Stutes or Henley, the two guys who played in the CWS. By comparison, Jon Jay, who played in the ‘06 CWS, was signed in time to play 60 games for Quad Cities in the MWL last summer.
If we sign three of the four, fine. If we don’t, this is going to be an incomprehensible draft. And even if we do, right now I don’t see the high-ceiling talent commensurate with our draft position.
Just when I was beginning to think the Cards were on the ball with player development …
McCormick a bust? I just don’t think you can call a guy he strikes out 11 hitters per 9 a bust. Of course he has been hit by the injury bug, which sucks, but calling the guy BA ranked in our top 10 prospects (knowing he would miss most of this season) a bust seems like a little much…
PS - I really like McCormick can you tell?
Goldstein has top ten catchers up at BP, and to my suprise Anderson comes in at number 2. Suprised because he likes Conger.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6467
i wouldn’t call mccormick a bust..yet. depends on if he can have that great velo when he comes back from his shoulder injury..i’ve seen him pitch, he’s electric to saw the least, but also extremely wild. if he can’t walk less then 4.5 per 9, i don’t see how he’s much good.
I wasn’t clear — McCormick isn’t destined to be a bust but I think he’s the only one who could be saddled with that label thus far. He’s got the stuff but with injuries and control, he’s going to have to do something soon to hold off the youngsters. I’m not sure I’d rank him in the top ten prospects still (although it would be close).
He’s thrown less than 100 innings from 2005-2007 with crazy BB rates and fantastic K rates. He’s the kind of pitcher every team is willing to take a flier on but doesn’t always pan out.