It’s been 40 days since the amateur draft and the #1 pick has yet to be signed. There’s not a peep on the front on what his status is and I’m beginning to wonder what’s going on. It’s not totally unusual, many of the top picks have gone unsigned still, including David Price, Mike Moustakas, Josh Vitters, Daniel Moskos, Matt Wieters, Matt Dominguez, to name a few. I’m just starting to wonder a little bit if after all the talk about him being the next Nomar that the Cards aren’t getting cold feet. One of Kozma’s selling points was his sign-ability, yet the August 15th deadline is less then a month away. That could be a good thing. Why do I say that? With the new MLB collective bargaining agreement in place, the Cards have some big time insurance-
Several draft alterations, ranging from a uniform Aug. 15 signing deadline to compensation for unsigned picks, will change how both teams and players experience the process, as well as how much and when money changes hands.
The most notable changes are those that deal with draft-pick compensation–both for teams that fail to sign a high pick as well as those who lose major league free agents in the offseason.Teams that fail to sign a first-round pick no longer receive an extra pick after the first round as compensation, but instead a virtually identical pick the following year; for example, a team that fails to sign the No. 5 pick one year will receive the No. 6 pick the next, rather than one in the 30s or 40s.
I wasn’t a huge fan of the Kozma pick to begin with, many felt the Cardinals could’ve got a similar player in the supplemental round in Justin Jackson. The Baseball America folks seem to think he’s great, while others like Bryan Smith, Kevin Goldstein, Keith Law to name few where underwhelmed. Heck, the scout that recommended him (Steve Gossett) compared him to likes of mediocrities such as Jack Wilson and Mark Loretta for crying out loud. And the opinion I tend to respect the most is Mr. internet scout himself, Carlos Gomez. He detailed out Kozma’s rather ugly swing, dubbing it one of the worst swings of the draft. (And he was shocked to find a worse one! Sorry, Minnesota fans.)
The Cardinals have all the leverage here. Kozma can take the deal they offered or walk to Wichita State. There are plenty of other fish in the sea for ‘08, and at this rate it looks like the Cardinals could get a top 10-15 pick AND the 19th pick of the draft next season. What really do they have to lose?
Derrick Goold said yesterday that if the Cardinals did not sign Kozma that would take some of the shine off of Luhnow’s star. I’m not so sure about that. Right now, I’m actually rooting for them NOT to sign Kozma. They could just give most of his bonus to Kyle Russell (there is no compensation for 4th rounders, btw) and walk away winners in my opinion.
Filed under: 2007 Draft, Pete Kozma
erik
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Erik
What are your thought about Kozma and Russell being rep’d by the same agents. Do you think it would be difficult to sign Russell and not Kozma?
things have been weird since pk was picked. a few days after the draft, brian walton from the birdhouse interviewed pk and, well, i just got a really strange vibe from it. the audio was a little shaky, but pk really came off as indifferent. he didn’t seem excited that the cards had selected him, he just seemed, i dunno, like he didn’t really care. that interview has stuck w/me, and i guess i wouldn’t mind if we just passed on the kid.
BJM…I don’t think it’s like the Hendricks Bros. are saying in order to sign one you have to sign the other. Their job is to get their client the best deal out there. If the Cards give that to Russell and not Kozma, the still have to look out for Kyle and advise him to sign. It’s not like they are a package deal.
No tables in the comments makes me mad. Anyway, the picks nearest to Kozma that have signed are:
16-Kevin Ahrens-Blue Jays-1.44M
20-Arencibia-Blue Jays-1.3275M
Personally, I’d peg Kozma closer to 1.2M but the Cardinals went and ran their mouth about how he was higher than Ahrens on their board. They may regret that.
Erik
I agree with that portion of the thinking. I think that it will become increasingly difficult to sign Kozma if Russell is signed first. Lets say that it take 1.5m for Russel to sign (a price I would be willing to pay), than you are setting the price for Kozma higher than that. I don’t see the Cards paying more than 1.5m for Kozma. What I wonder is with the Hendrick’s Bros having inside knowledge (not just the public number) of Russell’s negotiations doesn’t stall Kozma signing because they are asking for more for Kozma than what the Cards are willing to give Russell.
Gawd, if that makes any sense let me know…
If they don’t sign either guy, the Cards should fire the scout who was responsible for recommending Kozma as a first-round choice. If there was any question about his attitude or signability, the Cards shouldn’t have taken the risk.
Russell I understand — the Cards made it clear they were flying blind and rolling the dice on that one.
But if they misjudged a first-round pick, someone has to pay for that mistake. Sure, the Cards will get a replacement pick in 2008, but unless they identify and fix the problem that led to Kozma’s selection, they’re just as likely to screw up again in the next draft.
speaking of gomez and the “worse” swing he found, ben revere is hitting .302/.337/.442. some other players that he liked a lot better are playing in the same league and aren’t hitting anywhere close to what he is. kevin ahrens is hitting .215/.346/.308 and devin mesoraco is hitting .244/.340/.268.
now i know it is extremely early in their careers, but revere is looking a lot better than what gomez would make you believe. i find his break downs interesting, but i don’t take them as gospel like you guys seem to. you are entitled to your opinion, but it seems like you are writing off pete kozma way too early b/c gomez doesn’t like his swing.
Actually, I’m writing Kozma off because of the similarities to Jack Wilson and Mark Loretta. The first round of the draft is (IMO) for drafting indespensables. I’d wager that the Pirates could do without Jack Wilson.
FGC - now i know it is extremely early in their careers, but revere is looking a lot better than what gomez would make you believe.
Fewer than 100 pro-ball ABs tells us absolutely nothing. Comparing Revere to Ahrens or anyone else at this point with numbers has no predictive value whatsoever. Unless you are watching Revere you can’t know if he’s “looking better” from 100 ABs. His BABIP was crazy high in June and he hasn’t taken a walk in July. And neither of those stats tell us anything yet.
This is why teams scout players and there hasn’t been a positive scouting report about Kozma’s bat anywhere. He’s always touted as remaing at shortstop but projected with limited power and no real above average skillsets.
There’s a variety of sources including Law, ESPN Scouting Reports, BP, BA, etc. that all say the same thing. It isn’t just Gomez.
who cares about the power? no one cares how much power he has, that isn’t why he was drafted. that was the main criticism of gomez was that he didn’t have much power and that was the whole basis of ripping his swing. if the guy hits .300 with plenty of doubles and 8-10 homers while playing a solid shortstop he is everything we could have hoped for in a first round pick. that basicly describes edgar renteria and he is a $10 million per year player and an all-star.
now as for the scouting reports and there not being any positive ones. check this out, these come from the baseball america pre-draft scouting reports on pete kozma and colby rasmus.
rasmus
Rasmus’ tools grade out average or above across the board
he at times produces good leverage, leading scouts to believe he’ll hit for at least average power
kozma
He grades out as average to slightly above-average in every tool except power, and he does have pop
rasmus
He has a short, simple lefthanded swing that he repeats, and the barrel of the bat stays in the hitting zone a long time
kozma
He has good plate coverage and uses the entire field, projecting as a future No. 2 hitter in a big league lineup
rasmus
scouts love his maturity and savvy for the game
kozma
His instincts help him play above his physical ability at bat, on the bases and in the field
those sound pretty similar to me. if scouting reports that read just like a colby rasmus scouting report aren’t positive, i don’t know what is. i don’t know what you mean about everybody saying the same thing b/c jim callis has said he loves the pick.
where you this negative about the colby rasmus pick?
I had a thought. What if we have a down year in the draft, one that has considerably less talent than the rest? For example, many players that projected as third round talent on a good year are being drafted in the first round. Wouldn’t it be in a teams best interest to draft a first round player and offer him below third round money based on his talent level. If this player does not take it he enters next year draft and gets third round money and the team gets a first round pick. That rule really does give all the power to the teams.
who cares about the power? no one cares how much power he has, that isn’t why he was drafted.
It limits his projectability and upside. Plain and simple. Not everyone has to hit for power but if you don’t/can’t you just have to be that much better in your other skills.
.300 with plenty of doubles and 8-10 homers
That’s the criticism. Not just homeruns but hitting for gap power could be a struggle for him too. It’s possible that he hits for gap power but that’s his ceiling.
leading scouts to believe he’ll hit for at least average power
That’s not the same thing as Kozma’s “pop” as BA describes it.
His instincts help him play above his physical ability at bat
I hate statements like this because it’s a sugar-coated way of saying he’s playing above his physical skillset aka he’s not as physically talented as you expect. Better opposition will exploit things like that (please don’t cite me David Eckstein — raw ability is important).
jim callis has said he loves the pick
Kevin Goldstein, Keith Law, Carlos Gomez, Bryan Smith have all panned the pick as a conservative pick that was a bit of a reach. Callis has been the one slight deviation but I have yet to see anywhere that this kid is a star or has star potential.
Not to mention it’s a bit misleading to ask me if I like the pick made at number 18 as much as I do at number 30. Shouldn’t we expect to get a BETTER talent at 18? I’ll say this for the 30-thousandth time, I don’t dislike Kozma as a prospect but I do dislike him as a 18th pick overall. Maybe a lot of smart people turn out to be wrong — it happens. But for the Cardinals to pass on talents like Porcello to pick a player who projects to max out as a solid regular (not even an All-Star) really rubs me the wrong way. His continued delay in signing only increases my frustration with the situation and he may not even start pro-ball till age 20 if he doesn’t sign soon.
you just confirmed what i have thought. you are PO’ed they didn’t take Porcello and would have taken it out on almost anyone that was picked there, not just kozma. you said “pass on talents like Porcello,” but there weren’t any other talents like porcello. i was pay him the $8-10 million he wanted or you drop back into the next group of players which the cardinals did, and kozma was definitely one of the top players left on the board.
what do you mean its misleading to ask if you liked the rasmus pick? its a simple question, i just wanted to know if you dislike all the picks they make b/c his report sounds an awful lot like kozma’s and i could just see you saying he might not stick in center and he doesn’t have enough power for right and how can you pass on a talent like hochevar to take rasmus.
you say that there are a lot of people that don’t like him and that he doesn’t project as an all-star player, but try and find someone out of the top 5-10 picks (that will sign for close to slot) that everyone likes and projects as an all-star. those guys just aren’t around at pick 18.
FGC - you can think that I’m always evaluating Kozma up against Porcello but that doesn’t make it true. That’s not the case. JP Arencibia, Main and Brackman are all picks I would have preferred to Kozma. I’ve said previously on this site and elsewhere that I understand the reasoning why they didn’t pick Porcello. Saying that I’m PO’ed they didn’t pick Porcello is malarkey and it’s a position I’ve been very clear about here and here and here. I’ve been konsistent (kan’t help myself) on Kozma the whole time and Porcello.
I liked the Rasmus pick at pick 28 — it’s a misleading comparison because Kozma was 10 picks earlier in a different draft that was heavy on HS arms. A separate question is do I think their reports sound similar? They do sound similar but it reads to me as Rasmus’ report being marginally better overall. So what does that tell me — it tells me that Kozma was more like an early supplemental round pick (say pick number 36).
I’m not down on Kozma as a prospect. I LIKE KOZMA as a prospect; I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t sign. I wouldn’t go over slot and am frustrated by the fact that he hasn’t begun playing yet. The initial comp I made way back on draft day was Marcus Giles at shortstop. I think Kozma could be a Marcus Giles. I also think there were better players on the board. These aren’t mutually exclusive positions.
(Disclaimer: I’m not speaking for erik in any of this. He and I many or may not be on the same page here.)
gomez totally soured me on kozma. that’s all i have to say. swings can be fixed, but he seemed to think he was a future utility player. i wonder if he’s adam kennedy at short. (not the 07 version)
i just don’t see the harm in telling the kid take the money or leave it. i’d much rather use his $ on russell and take a mulligan if need be.
“gomez totally soured me on kozma. that’s all i have to say. swings can be fixed, but he seemed to think he was a future utility player. i wonder if he’s adam kennedy at short. (not the 07 version)”
you really put a lot of stock in what this guy has to say. remember it is just his opinion and he doesn’t rely on what scouts have to say or anything. i like to read what he has to say, but i just don’t agree with a lot of what he says (i think he does a lot better job with pitchers than he does with hitters). i tried to look back through the archives and find some analysis of past drafts he has done to see how accurate he was, but there weren’t any. this is the first year he has done this, so we don’t really know how good he is at evaluating players. he could be right nearly all of the time, or he could be full of crap for all we know. another thing i am leary of when considering his opinion on kozma is he is going off of a 2 minute video clip that is over a year old (that is a video from his summer league team last year). kozma could have already fixed all of the problems that he pointed out for all we know.
the one thing that really made me skeptical of gomez was his love for kyle russell’s swing. sure the guy has power, but he set the all time strikeout record last year on the cape and hit under .200. this year at texas he struck out 64 times in 223 at bats. the guy has major holes in his swing, but gomez just talked about how much he liked it. from reading his articles, i have come to the conclusion that he is all about the power. that is why 2 of his favorites are matt laporta and kyle russell, 2 of the most prolific power hitters in recent college baseball history, and why he doesn’t like guys like kozma and revere. i know that it is impossible to know, but i think if gomez was doing this in the early 90’s he wouldn’t have liked derek jeter’s inside out swing b/c it didn’t have the power potential to be a top 10 pick. now i’m not saying pete kozma is in derek jeter’s class, but i was trying to think of a star player that wouldn’t have fit what gomez likes in a hitter.
if there is anything i have learned from following the draft it is that guys who strikeout a ton in college even if they hit for average and hit for power in college will not make enough contact to hit for average in pro ball. look at guys like tyler greene and drew stubbs from recent years. these guys have all the tools in the world and are better all-around players than russell, hit for a better average than russell in college, but they can’t hit in the minors. in the case of kyle russell, you can have all the power in the world, but if you can’t hit for at least a respectable average you are nothing more than joe borchard. i don’t see how you just totally dismiss that aspect of hitting like gomez seems to do.
i do put a lot of stock in what he says because HE IS A SCOUT. His job is to analyzes players mechanics. He also happens to work with ACTUAL baseball players. I trust what he has to say.
I can’t speak for Gomez on what he thinks of Jeter’s swing and neither should you take such guesses. he didn’t like Kozma because he pushes with his hands, limiting his power. power isn’t just homers, it’s doubles and liners, too.
i’ll take a TTO hitter over most of your slap and dash types anyday. note the word most.
i hope his swing mechanics have changed drastically, but in a recent article re: kozma’s coach, he literally yells at his kids to swing the way we see in the video…
i guess we can agree to disagree if you want. i’m not just basing everything on what gomez says, but his comments certainly swayed me over to the negative side along with what others have said.
i guess we are going to have to agree to disagree (although i wasn’t just talking about his assessment of kozma). gomez may call himself a scout, but he obviously doesn’t work for any team. i like to get my information from as many sources as possible (baseball america, pgcrosschecker, perfect game, john sickels, keith law, patrick ebert), and i know it is second hand, but i would rather take what guys like jim callis and allan simpson say b/c they are getting their info from real scouts. he may work with actual players, but i haven’t heard of any of his guys doing anything in professional baseball. all he is is a guy that works for a small time baseball website, if he was as good as he thinks he is, he would be writing for a bigger name website or be working for an actual team.
good lord fgc, get a grip…i’m sorry, but there’s no reason to be slamming gomez like that. rob neyer called his research some of the most important work done right now on the web…and i’d hardly call the Hardball Times small time. i’m through with this conversation…normally, i really like your opinions but i thinking your crossing the line. sorry…i get your point, callis and ba is great, they are smart guys and if you prefer to use their judgment that’s fine. no need to slam a guy in the process, and insult someone who’s been nothing but great to the readers at this site.
erik, i know you said you were done with this, but i was just trying to make a point with my last post. you say there is no reason to slam gomez, but you continually slam kozma. what is the difference?
fgc…i’m not slamming him, i’m saying i don’t care if they sign him. i have a right to to that, myself and az write at this blog. you calling gomez small time and acting like if he knew what the heck he was talking about he’d be a big league scout or whatever i find terribly rude. people have to start somewhere, and as i noted he’s received national attention from rob neyer, praising his work. i told you i’m done with this conversation, so please just drop it…OK????
From what I hear, Kozma had worked out a pre-draft deal with the cards. He was probably going to sign for a little less than slot if the cards took him as their pick. Rumor has it that now Kozma thinks that if the Cardinals didn’t take him he would have went around the same area and have gotten more than what the cards are offering him.
so the kid possibly backed out of a pre-draft deal??? helluva way to start your career, how’s the gulf coast league sound to you kid?
GCL? No way I let him play in sunny Florida. Batavia has terrible facilities - that’s where I’m sending him!
ha ha ha, very true. i really think batavia is sooo bad is b/c of that horrible field and no fan support. it’s really goota suck for the guys coming out of big time college programs.