Future Redbirds

There’s no question that Colby Rasmus is a future big leaguer, most likely a star in the making. Some think he could handle the Show as early as 2008. While the way he’s handled himself as a 20 year old in AA has been pretty fantastic, he’s shown he still has a ways to go before he’s ready for the bigs.

Since June, it seems like about every night I’d check the box scores he’d have at least a strikeout per game. I had read recently somewhere that Pop Warner, Colby’s manager, had said that pitchers started trying to pitch around him more after his hot May, but that hasn’t stopped Colby from swinging. He really needs start being more selective. I also have to think his manager was being a bit kind, part of it is the league has found the holes in his swing.

Another thing Warner pointed out is he’d like to see Colby used the whole field, wise advice that Rasmus should heed. Here is Colby’s batted ball chart per firstinning.com

Rasmus has become too pull happy, which is part of what is depressing his average. It also could be padding his power numbers a bit, as most true power hitters can hit the ball deep to all parts of the field, while 4/5ths of Rasmus’s homers have been to right field. I guess I can’t totally blame him for wanting to pull the ball, look what happens when he does!

A final gripe is he’s really only really produced at the AA level for one month, which has makes his season total .861 OPS tell a different story then what’s actually happening.

Weighted on base, or wOBA as it’s abbreviated is a Tangotiger creation that represents a player’s offensive value by scaling linear weights in a way that resembles OBP. In general, a major league wOBA around .340 is average and a wOBA of .400 is very good. For an average, Colby’s .370 wOBA is pretty good for a 20 year old. His .472 wOBA for the month of May was otherworldly, and the rest of the month’s he’s put up .320, .310, .323, which is pretty blah. He’s had one good month and 2 and a half bad ones this season. If he doesn’t start to turn it around, we’re gonna be talking about a .750ish OPS by season’s end.

Struggles are part of the learning process and can be helpful if a player is open to change. I’m confident Rasmus is open, and he’s going to need to be pickier at the plate and start to use the whole field. Taking walks, hitting doubles and homers and swiping the occasional base is Colby’s bag right now, and he can be a very valuable baseball player if that’s all he does. But I’d rather see him become more then just an all or nothing type of player, I’m pretty sure he has more potential then that. Let’s stop this talk of him taking over in RF by ‘08, he’s gonna need to make some changes just to make it to Memphis next season.

There are things to like, for instance his 21% line drive rate and the fact that now he’s hitting southpaws better (.911 OPS) then he’s hitting right handers. (.854). And the fact he’s averaged around a .200 ISO each month is also encouraging.