Future Redbirds

Good discussion going on this morning re: overrated and underrated Cardinal prospects.  Be sure to chime in. 

As promised, the second installment of Visualizing Pitchers we take a look at those pitchers currently in Springfield to see how they rate on two simple tests. K:BB is here to show us whether a pitcher has command of the strikezone. As a pitcher moves from left to right on the graph it indicates better command. GB% is all about keeping the ball on the ground. As the pitchers moves up the graph, the more groundballs they’re generating. Credit where credit’s due: Here’s the piece from Baseball Analysts that inspired this Cardinals-centric one and here’s the Memphis entry from Wednesday.

Remember, this isn’t a 100% indicator of talent but more of a rough and tumble look at our pitching prospects. I’ve also made one more change to the graph. Pitchers with the black dot were starters while those with a blue dot were primarily relievers. This time around, I’ve got some more notes because I found this graph far more illuminating than the Memphis one. There’s some real surprises here. . . after the jump.

Click the thumbnail and then you’ll be able to view it in a larger size on Flickr. My thoughts:

• There’s Jaime Garcia. It’s easy to understand the hype having seen what a stark contrast he is to the rest of the team. He combines high GB rates with great control. The scouting report is that he falls in love with his curveball sometimes and lacks projection but still even if he tops out at a number #3 starter, that’s the kind of player the Cardinals need to balance out the budget.
• I’ve got Kyle McClellan’s 2007 numbers in there since thew < 10 innings last year. He’s really ascended quickly from the Appalachian league last year. Excellent command of the strike zone.
• I’m a huge fan of Scherer. He threw 80+ innings of relief and struck out 100+ guys while walking 20. He’s still striking out more than a batter an inning this year at AA with a 3:1 K:BB ratio. Superb. Converted catcher Jason Motte is right there with him.
• Adam Daniels finds himself in that upper right hand quadrant of groundballs and good command. He’s a lefty and I think he can make it as a starter in the bigs someday.
• This should show you why I’m so down on Chris Perez. Scouts love his stuff, I hate his command. Great stuff + terrible command = Jorge Julio and no one wants that. He’s doing better this year but he absolutely has to find a way to stop walking batters. Chris, if you’re reading this, don’t do it for the glory. Do it for the MONEY. Teams will ridiculously overpay you when you hit FA if you can be a lockdown closer. Seriously, think about it — and it would be nice for the Cardinals to not have to revisit Izzy v2006 again.
• Kevin Ool is not a bad reliever.  Key word: reliever.
• I like Pomeranz build and projection more than his results from last year. He’s been shelved the whole season with an injury.

It’s important to remember that a lot of the numbers we’re seeing at this point are from A-ball so don’t invest too heavily in them. Still, it’s an interesting exercise.