Future Redbirds

There are very few players that get me truly riled up regarding the level they are playing at. The college pitchers do in general but not in particular. Ottavino, Degerman. . . I’d like to see them move up but I can see the other side of the proverbial coin. Jarrett Hoffpauir, however, is starting to get me riled up. Let’s be honest with ourselves. The number of significant middle infielder prospects in the Cardinals system: 0. Tyler Greene maybe if he puts it together and can stick at SS. Kozma? Don’t get me started. Brendan Ryan? Like the kid, but he’s more of a stop gap.

I’m not here to make the case that Hoffpauir is an impact middle infielder. He’s probably not but he does have a .900 OPS @ Springfield. Danup had this to say in the morning comments:

What does Hoffpauir have to do to get promoted? I realize he’s repeating a hitter’s league, but come on, a .900 OPS is a .900 OPS.

Good question Dan, good question. Hoffpauir was drafted in the 6th round of the infamous 2004 draft with a pleasant $110,000 signing bonus. He played for Southern Mississippi from 2002-2004. There’s about half a dozen players drafted along with Hoffpauir from those 3 years and no one other than Jarrett has made it past A ball (Shea Douglass was a pitcher on the 2002 team. Last seen with Cleveland in AAA but injuries have derailed his career). If nothing else, Hoff has bragging rights there.

He played in the New York-Penn league for the Cardinals New Jersey affiliate (no longer with the Cardinals). We’re talking the epitome of small sample sizes (36 ABs) but he put up a 1.104 OPS there in his limited stay. Moving up to the Peoria affiliate in the Midwest league Hoffpauir showed his ability to draw walks with 29 BBs against 231 ABs.

His first full season with the Cardinal organization was 2005 where he split the year between Quad Cities and Palm Beach. He hit for average at QC masking his complete lack of power and decreased walk rate with a nifty .313 AVG. Strangely, he was slumping in June when he was promoted. Palm Beach wasn’t friendly to Hoffpauir whose strikeout rate climbed dramatically and ISO was cut in half. He did bump up the walk rate to 12%, maintaining a good-not-great .346 OBP.

In 2006 Hoff started out in Springfield. Removed from the pitcher friendly FSL, he hit 7 HRs and continued to draw walks. His batting average, however, tanked. An unpleasant .249 AVG suppressed his overall numbers. We can attribute some of this to (bad) luck seeing a .264 BABIP. It wasn’t all an issue of balls in play finding fielders though. His line drive rate was low meaning more balls were in the air and made for easier outs. He lacks any discernable platoon split although a sizable majority of his ABs have come against RHPs over the years. Still, 2006 was a mild let down for Hoffpauir.

His numbers this year aren’t necessarily going to blow you out of the water. He’s posting a lackluster .165 ISO which is the highest it’s been since low-A. His walk rate is a respectable 12.7% and he’s reduced his strikeouts to 7.5%. Jarrett hasn’t ever really had a problem making contact so much as making contact with authority. He’s really turned it on in June. It’s a fair question whether this is an aberrant data spike or a step forward in skillset but nonetheless, June has been a good month. He’s got an out of this world .455 wOBA (.340 is average, .400 is very good) and has increased the LD output up to 27%. He’s only hit 5HRs this season but power isn’t his game. If Hoffpauir can hit for average and draw walks, he could be a .280/.365/.400 type middle infielder. That’s not bad. It isn’t great but an OBP like that has been hard to come by in STL for 2nd baseman. We’re talking perfect world here though. Realistically, he’s a utility-middle infielder if he ever makes the bigs.

The lack of power really limits his upside and I don’t know much about his defense but I can’t reiterate this point enough: the STL Cardinals have ZERO significant infield prospects in the high minors (outside of Greene). ZERO. Why does Edgar Gonzalez and the “Where did he come from” Mike McCoy continue to get at-bats in AAA when Hoffpauir is posting guady 900+ OPS in Springfield? We’ll have to see if Hoffpauir makes the leap to AAA this season. Frankly, he should in the very near future if he maintains his current level of play into July.