Future Redbirds

Move Him On Up Installments: QC Hitters, QC Pitchers, PB hitters, PB Pitchers, SP Hitters, SP Pitchers, MEM Setup, MEM Hitters

I already cleared the way for the promotions in the Setup article. Giving the boot to Ginter, Smith and Castellanos is the best way to allow some good relievers to get some time in AAA. We’ll look at the pitchers in AAA and see what kind of upside we have here. Let’s adjust the potential scale for pitchers (likelihood will remain A-F):

10: Staff Ace

8:Top closer

6: Middle of the rotation/Solid setupman

4: Back of the rotation/Middle relief

1: Non-prospect

It’s hard to rank relievers and starters together so I’ll be specific as we go through. The numbering is a little fungible here depedning on your valuation of closers and relievers in general. I tend to be really hard on relievers as prospects because a reliever has a very limited role in baseball anymore. So to really rate high, they have to be quite phenomenal. <4 is the kind of players that swing from AAA to the bigs and move from team to team. They are players you need on the team but are the kind that you shouldn’t every be paying much over the minimum for.

Dennis Dove - ETA: mid-2008

2007 Stats: 15.1 IP, 3HR, 10K, 7BBs

Not numbers that are particularly inspiring but Dove caught everyone’s eye in Spring Training flashing high-90s heat with poor command. The move to the pen in 2006 did wonders for Dove as his K rate soared. Dove was on the DL June 13th after spending sometime in the with the big league club and Memphis. If Dove can get his fastball over the plate he’s got a chance to progress quite nicely and should contribute at the majors. He’s better than your average middle reliever but I’m worried that he’s never going to quite polish the command to where it needs to be. Potential 5, Likelihood B

Blake Hawksworth - ETA: mid-2008

2007 Stats: 75 IP, 13% K rate, 2.38 K:B, 9HR, 4.68 ERA
Despite the rather low K Rate, Hawksworth has adjusted his game by displaying excellent command. The HRs are problematic because Hawksworth allows more baserunners than he used to when the K rate was higher. He’s not going to show you a plus-velocity fastball like he used to as injuries have simply taken a toll on a once promising pitching prospect. He needs to continue to work in the minors and figure out how to pitch without having the heat in his arsenal that he used to. Potential 4, Likelihood B

Chris Narveson - ETA: now

2007 Stats: 37.1 IP, 33K:16BB, .77 GO:AO, .237 OBA

Blake Hawksworth’s left-handed counterpart, Narveson was part of the Larry Walker trade before returning to the Cardinals in 2005. Narveson is another player robbed of velocity by injuries. It’s unfortunate that he landed himself on the DL again this season as he likely would have had a shot at the rotation by now. Although the organization has been largely quiet on his injury, it appears that it’s a combination of a oblique strain and some short of shoulder problem. I still have a sneaky suspicion that he undergoes surgery on that shoulder before the season is out but that is total speculation on my part. Potential 4, Likelihood C

Mike Sillman - ETA: mid-2008

2006 Stats: 57.1IP, 86K:20BB, 58% GB rate

He’s only pitched 10 innings in Memphis this season and is currently on the disabled list (and they haven’t been that great) but those 2006 stats tell you why he made his way onto the radar. He’s got a funky delivery that hides the ball and makes it difficult for the hitters to get a good read on his pitches. It’s always interesting to see how these players progress as they face batters who are better at picking up on the ball. It’s too early to tell how his season will go this year but he’s definitely a possibility for the pen in the future. Potential 5, Likelihood C

Mark Worrell - ETA: 2008

2007 Stats: 33IP, 35K:16BB, .205 OBA, 39% GB rate, 5.24 FIP

That FIP is rather ugly, no? I could write many of the same things about Worrell that I did about Sillman. Relying on deception rather than sheer velocity, Worrell is still getting the Ks thus far. He’s a flyball pitcher and the 5 HRs are a little more than you’d like to see in 33 innings. I like Worrell marginally better than Sillman but it’s hard to predict how these deceptive deliveries translate to the majors. Potential 5.5, Likelihood C

Troy Cate - ETA: now

Cate is in the big leagues now pitching out of the pen where he belongs. The long experimentation with him in the Memphis rotation was a total failure — I commend the trial. It was worth a go after his excellent success in the Mexican winter league but the pen is the place for Cate. The Cardinals would be smart looking at moving either Flores or Cate who have lower upsides than Tyler Johnson’s slider of death and are redundant parts by and large. Still Cate’s should stick around for quite a few years in middle relief without a discernible platoon split in relief. Potential 4, Likelihood A

Andy Cavazos - ETA: now

Cavazos has made his way into the bullpen along side Cate. This is the type of player that the Cardinals need to keep for league minimum in the back of the pen. Cavazos isn’t a high upside pitcher either and he’s probably a little less valuable than Cate. He’ll bounce around the league for quite a few years working in middle relief. Potential 3, Likelihood A

Memphis is full of low upside guys that still aren’t great bets to perform at the major league level. The bullpen is interesting but deceptive deliveries don’t translate as well as a 96mph fastball. The Cardinals would be wise to look at filling out the back end of the bullpen and rotation with some of these low upside guys. Spend the money on the front/middle of your rotation/bullpen and skimp on those players that are going to be innings-eaters and long relief pitchers.

That wraps up the Move Him On Up series.  All 9 entries.  If I were to do this again, the biggest thing I’d want to do is try and condense the material.  It’s taken the better part of a month for me to get these all done and the moves the Cardinals have made, I barely kept abreast of.  I hope you found these informative because I enjoyed doing them and the feedback that came with them.