Future Redbirds

Move Him On Up Installments: QC Hitters, QC Pitchers, PB hitters, PB Pitchers, SP Hitters, SP Pitchers, MEM Setup

Mike W had some good comments yesterday about classifying the talent.  I thought about it for quite some time while I was working on the DPR last night and I think Mike and I are on the same track of thought.  So I’ll borrow from Mike as I finalize our classificaitons.  We have 5 levels of talent: elite talent, star talent, starter talent, role talent and non-talent (and I am going to number them).  As we define the categories, I’ll give you some examples to help clarify where I’m coming from.

10: Elite talent is someone who can win an MVP any year and a perennial All-star (though not the way the BBWAA votes).  I’m not going to sort out between generational talents as Mike called it because frankly, how do you really know when an elite player is going to maintain peak for about 15+ years as would be required?  That’s too much crystal ball action for me.  Albert Pujols, Barry Bonds both 10s.

7: Star talent is someone who has a good 5 year peak. That peak looks similar to what elite talent does for a longer period of time.  They make multiple All-Star appearances and could be the best player on their team during their peak.  I like a Jim Edmonds, Chipper Jones player here (I’d rate both of them as 8’s).

5: Starter talent is an everyday starter in the majors.  Never the best player on the team; always good enough to start.  Again, think Juan Encarnacion, Marcus Giles who’d I’d rate as a 5 & 6 respectively.

3: Role players are platooned guys, bench players that have a limited role on a major league team.  They may excel at that role but they just aren’t starting talent.  David Dellucci or Aaron Miles would fit here and I’d rate them as 4 & 3 respectively.

1: Non-talents are the John Galls and Scott Seabols of the world.  They’ll see occasional time in the bigs but they just aren’t going to stick or have any significant impact.  I’m not going to try and guess whether a prospect is a AAA, AA or A talent because prospects are often promoted before they are ready and who cares if they stall at AA or AAA.   They didn’t make it to the bigs.

I’ll go with A-F for the likelihood ratings.  Just like school, A is an excellent chance to reach potential, B is a good chance to reach potential, C is a moderate chance to reach potential, D is a poor chance to reach potential and F is when hell freezes over they’ll reach potential.  I doubt I’ll use F much becuase F’s would go hand in hand with the Non-talents and we won’t talk about them too much.

So without further adieu, here are the intriguing Memphis Redbirds along with my ratings and some comments:

Nick Stavinoha - ETA: mid-2008

2007 Stats: .285/.330/.442/.772, 6.1% BB rate, 1HR per 26 ABs

Stavinoha is a dilemma because he has suffered from various maladies the last couple of years.  It’s hard to tell whether he’s just facing better opposition and his numbers are declining or if he’s playing at less than 100%.  Injuries play a factor in whether someone will reach their potential.  He’s never had the walk rate I’d like to see but he could probably hit for average at the MLB level.  He needs some more seasoning in Memphis.  I’d say his top potential is a 5 but he gets a C in likelihood because of injuries and my suspicion that he’s really more of a good bench player. 

Skip Schumaker - ETA: now

2007 Stats: .314/.376/.500/.876, 5HR, ISO - .186

If the Cardinals ever decide to ditch Taguchi and get a real defensive outfielder, Skip Schumaker is their man.  Capable of playing all three OF positions he’s a great replacement in the late innings for guys like Chris Duncan.  That said, he should never ever hold a bat.  He’s never posted an ISO over .125 in the minors.  Repeat, never and he’s 27.  There’s a lot of talk about his work with Chris Duncan and Mark McGwire from this offseason but I’m not buying it.  Skip Schumaker is a defensive artist that can be found littered through AAA rosters. He’s a 2 on potential but an A to reach it as he’s already there. 

John Rodriguez - ETA: now

2007 Stats: .286/.394/.496/.890, 13.3% walk rate, 4HR in 52ABs in June

JRod is hard for me to remain rational about.  It’s not that I’m really a fan per se, I’m just so baffled by the persistent refusal of the STL Cardinals to use him.  He doesn’t have the HR power you’d like for a corner outfielder and defensively he’s probably no better than average.  That said, he hasn’t posted a sub .200 ISO in the minors since 2003.  He walks at a good clip too posting a .358 career OBP in the minors and .378 in the majors prior to this year.  His skillset gets undervalued because corner outfielders that get on base and don’t hit a HR aren’t the norm.  He’s 29 and he’s probably not going to improve but he should be on a major league team somewhere.  He’s a great bench player but probably would fall a little short of being a regular once defense is considered. Potential is a 4, likelihood is an A.

Travis Hanson - ETA: 2009

2007 Stats: .197/.232/.260/.492, .063 ISO, 20 HRs in 2005

Hanson is on the disabled list right now.  He had a monster, aberrant 2005 going .284/.347/.458/.805.  Memphis doesn’t have a corner infielder to speak of (I’m excluding Mather since he just arrived) and Hanson probably will never get anywhere.  He has an outside shot at being a bench player if he can figure things out (Abraham Nunez can’t hit for power at all and the Phillies played him for almost a whole year at third).  Potential 3, likelihood D.

Brendan Ryan - ETA: 2008

2007 Stats: .266/.314/.348/.662, .082 ISO, 13% LD rate, 1HR in 256 ABs

The Cardinals face something of a conundrum in that David Eckstein represents the most reasonable SS free agent this coming year but he’s been plagued by injuries and looked finished for the first 1.5 months this season.  Ryan is getting a taste of the big leagues right now but probably isn’t there yet.  He doesn’t elevate the ball at all hitting well over 50% of his balls in play on the ground and he’s probably never going to hit for power.  That said he’s a good defensive SS and if you catch a player at their peak, they can be good enough to start for a couple years.   Potential 4, likelihood B.

Rick Ankiel - ETA: 2008

2007 Stats: .279/.315/.595/.912, 19HR in 222ABs, 6.6% BB rate

Wow.  Who would have guessed?  Not me.  I held a lot of animosity towards slick Rick when he decided he was going to retire from pitching.  I know their were extenuating cirmcumstances but I always felt like he pulled the rug out from under everyone with that seemingly unilateral decision.  Now, however, it’s nice to root for the guy who has more HRs than any STL player and a .300+ ISO.  If Ankiel ever gets his BB rate up (and I don’t want to say there’s anything he can’t do), he’d be a fantastic outfielder capable of playing all three positions.  He’s peaking now though so the window is pretty small for him to capitalize on it.  I think in the end he’s a bench player with a ton of pop in his bat but he has more upside than that.  Between injuries and age, it’ll be interesting to follow Slick Rick v2.0 - Potential 6, likelihood C. 

Now a quick clarification.  With Ankiel you can see I think he’s got a relatively high potential but he’s not likely to make that.  That doesn’t mean I don’t think he’ll make it at all, the likelihood scale is an evaluation of the probability he reaches his max potential.  So would say he’s a B of becoming a 3 potential bench player but his max potential is higher than that.  I hope that elucidates things a little better. 

We’ll tackle the pitchers this weekend.  Memphis has some interesting arms in the bullpen.