Carlos Gomez is continuing his series at the Hardball Times where he looks at the scouting videos of each player drafted in the first round, and he is not impressed with Pete Kozma. At all. Here’s what he has to say:
“Poopy. Ever since I first saw Kozma’s swing, I’ve been trying to come up with a better, more sophisticated way to describe his swing. Unfortunately, Kozma hasn’t been able to shed the unfortunate label that I initially put on his swing. Want to eliminate power from an otherwise decent swing? Swing like this…
To say that Kozma is trying to “extend” is a gross understatement. It looks like he’s trying to work on it during his batting practice session, so it’s not an accident that he does it on his game swing. This swing is the result of years of hitting coaches telling kids to “throw their hands at the ball.” At least he keeps his bat in the zone (and eight feet in front of it) for a long time and his swing is decently short. He probably won’t strike out much and he’ll lace a few line drives. That’s about all for the positives. I’d like to talk about his defense, but when this analysis is based mostly on swing mechanics, it is difficult to ignore a swing this…poopy. No thanks, not enough power potential for me here. Not with that swing.”
Freakin’ GREAT! That’s exactly what I wanted to hear, that he has a turd of a swing! Hopefully he is a teachable guy and his coaches can quickly diagnose this problem and get him straightened out. Gomez will continue his series later, and Kyle Russell (who Gomez likes) is part of that. I won’t be liking it if they don’t get him signed already.
Filed under: Pete Kozma
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
Dear Cardinals,
Please sign Kyle Russell. Shake Dewitt upside down and pick up the gold that falls out of his pockets. . . and then go sign Kyle Russell with it. Seriously, sign Kyle Russell.
Thanks,
AZ
I’m willing to put $100 out of my own pocket for Russell. Heck, I’ll be willing to put that amount towards him from now until the next three years. And I can alway pawn some of my stuff.
From what I’m reading, it sounds more and more like they won’t. I don’t wanna say he makes or breaks the draft…but he does.
first i would like to say that there is only video of him taking 2 swings in game action in that video and that is not enough to draw any real conclusions. maybe he was just out in front on that pitch and had to swing like that?
secondly, the cardinals didn’t draft him for his power and that is all the guy talked about. he did say that he won’t strike out much and will lace line drives which is what i believe he was drafted for (and his defense). i think everyone would be happy if kozma hits .300 with 10 homers and plays solid defense every year, and i think he can do that with the swing he has now.
FGC - 10 homeruns is a fluke season variation for hitters. Christian Guzman hit 10 HR in 2001. Adam Everett hit 11 in 2005. Unless Kozma is going to field like Adam Everett, 10 HR is nothing to speak about.
The complete lack of power severely limits Kozma’s upside. I’m always bigger on OBP than SLG so of he comes in and shows good plate discipline and the ability to post .370 OBPs while playing a good SS, that’s something to write home about (think Rafeal Furcal).
Gomez addresses the issue in the first article that he is trying to limit himself to the MILB scouting material and not do too much extra research. I still find his conclusions disconcerting.
Rafeal Furcal v2006 that is
after rationalizing a little bit, i would have to think the cardinals knew about his swing and A) were already comfortable with it. or B) confidence they could fix it. He’s a high school player, it’s not like he’s in such a rut he can’t make adjustments. everyone says his makeup is off the charts, so i’m sure he can be teachable. just trying to be positive after and emotional reaction. i emailed gomez, he may look at de-slacko and will look at jess todd. he also told me he LOVES russell’s swing. Please, oh please God they better sign him.
Azru,
A legitimate 10 HR is another thing altogether, though. If Kozma has legit ability to get on base at a good rate, hit 10 HR each year, and hold down the middle of the INF, then he’s a worthy pick for sure. You mention Guzman and Everett, but when I think of 10 HR power, I think more of guys like Edgar Renteria, who really does have some respectable pop.
Wow, that swing in the second frame is pretty ugly. What are the chances he just got fooled on a pitch? That’s what a lot of guys look like when they get crossed up on speed, while fishing for an outside pitch. Do we know how representative of his swing this is?
Sidd - we’re talking upside of 10 HR (which I know got pulled out of thin air)…for our first round draft pick. Forgive me if I remain seated.
The stuff show here is a fairly easy fix. Mechanics are correctable–the key is that he has good bat speed. His lower body sucks on both of these swings. First off, his back leg collapses on the game action swing–he will have to learn to stay back and use a stable back leg to generate power. This could just be that he was crossed up on the pitch. The batting practice one sucks as bad in that he is really tall and not activating his thighs to generate power. If you look strictly at the legs this doesn’t even look like the same hitter so I don’t know which is representative of his swing. He could fix both of these by widening his stance abit.
There is a lot to like here though mostly with the hand action. One of the things you see as a result of aluminum bats is a very late swing where hitters are driving all pitches (inside/outside) to the opposite field because the alum bat generates more power. He has none of that crap. In fact he could stand to keep his hands inside the ball longer. Again learnable fix.
I see him struggling initially, he has to get the swing sync’d-up. But with his bat speed he should hit. He has a lot of alone time with batting tee in his future…
Hi all, this is Carlos Gomez, the author of the article on The Hardball Times.
While it is true that I have limited swings to take a look at, I assure you that on most swings (even in batting practice–where he shouldn’t be getting fooled), his point of contact is WAY out in front and he literally seems to be working on “extending” on the ball. 10 bombs is the upper limit of his power. I think you MAY have a utility infielder on your hands here at best. Not good… Luckily, Russell I like. Let’s hope the Cards can sign him.
Carlos, aka ChadBradfordWannabe
The more I watch this, I can’t be a homer…It is an ugly swing that needs to be almost totally scrapped. Good hand action and bat speed though…
If you guys want to see near perfect pitching mechanics check out the Price vids. Just sick good…
I’m sorry, I have to disagree on the hand action. It is exactly the “pushing of the hands” that I object to the most. You are right though. He needs to learn to engage his body better as well.
Thanks for dropping by Carlos.
I’m sure these issues could be correctable, or at least I could hope. Pretend you are Kozma’s hitting coach for a second…what advice would you offer him?
Carlos-
I hear what your saying and don’t disagree he is really out in front trying to reach for the ball. What I am gettin at though is that if he holds his hands back “inside the ball” and gets it sync’d up with body–the point where he uses his hands to get the bat in the hitting zone isn’t that bad. They get the bat to the hitting zone pretty quick, the head of the bat is in the hitting zone for long time, and his swing isn’t particlarly long or loopy. I think he has a long way to go with his lower body. His legs and torso are really out of position on both of these swings. Look at it this way, he almost looks like he is leaning out over his front leg to get the ball. Ok now lets put his legs and torso in correct position where he is over or slightly leaning back over his rear thigh really engaging it for power. Do you not think his hands would begin to correct themselves. He is getting that “pushing” by being so far out over his front leg–if he is back over his thigh his hands would have now choice but to stay back. I just think his hand action will begin correct itself if he can get the lower body on order. That is a much more difficult fix.
BTW, I am an old pitcher. Those Price vids are insane…
i just don’t get projecting a guy as a utility infielder b/c he has 10 homer upside. renteria is exactly the type of player i am talking about when i think of pete kozma. hit .300, fill the gaps, and hit 10 homers a year.
here are renteria’s homerun totals while in st. louis
1999 11
2000 16
2001 10
2002 11
2003 13
2004 10
carlos, i think you do great work and are very knowledgable, but would you say renteria would project as a utility infielder at best b/c he has basically 10 homer upside? you seem to be placing your entire analysis of him as a player on how much power you think he will develop and that may be the least important tool when you look at a shortstop. if the guy has range, can throw, and hits for average he is a very solid all around everyday shortstop. look at ozzie smith (i’m not saying kozma is in his league as a defender), the most homers he ever hit in a season was 6 and he had a lot of season where he didn’t hit any. he was a hall of fame player, but i am sure you would have absolutely killed his swing if you were to analyze it.
btw, renteria hit 10 homers total in 5 minor league seasons.
oh, something else i forgot to point out is that this video is from a showcase last summer and his swing mechanics could be completely different this spring (although i doubt they are much different).
“Pretend you are Kozma’s hitting coach for a second…what advice would you offer him?”
Hi Erik. Let the ball get deep is probably the first thing I’d talk about. He also needs to learn to incorporate his lower body…
As BigJawn said, he’ll have a lot of solo time with a tee to work on it.
15 and 16–
10 HR’s is the upper limit for him, IMO. I did a voice review on Kozma compared to LaPorta where I talk about hand path, in my blog at:
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/mechanics/discussion/tht_breaking_down_the_drafts_1st_round_picks_11_20/
scroll to comment #6…
You have very good points as to why not to label him as a utility-man type. That may have been harsh on my part, but still, at #18, I’d like to see more power.
“You have very good points as to why not to label him as a utility-man type. That may have been harsh on my part, but still, at #18, I’d like to see more power.”
there was no power available, it was either take a slappy guy like kozma, noonan, jackson, or borbon or take a pitcher. let me ask you this, if they took kyle russell at 18 does that somehow make it a better draft?
Wow, he really does turn on the ball fairly slowly. While it’s his lack of using his legs to his advantage is obvious, did anyone notice that his torso seems to not be used that well either? Kinda reminds me of Craig Counsel.
Although I’m much better at analyzing Lefties and pitchers.
“10 HR’s is the upper limit for him, IMO. I did a voice review on Kozma compared to LaPorta where I talk about hand path, in my blog at:”
Wow, I gotta take exception to this. The kid is 18 frikkin years old and you can certifiably claim that 10 HR is his upper limit for power? For a guy who is atheltically gifted enough to be a SS, and clearly has a decent build? He’s got the size to be able to put some muscle behind the ball, the athletic gifts to have good hand-eye coordination, and the youth to correct mechanical flaws…and you can claim the XX is his max limit?
I really don’t know much about Kozma, but as a research scientist, I certainly know when one is extraplotaing beyond the bounds of evidence and the is working within limits of uncertainty. That would very much seem to apply to this case.
Isn’t LaPorta a collegiate 1st baseman or C? ….and a hand comparison indicates that someone 4 years younger at a completely different position has UT INF as his upside? It really seems like a suspect comp, and argument altogether.
Sorry, I ain’t buying it. Not for those reasons, anyway.
let me correct myself, he said he may look at todd, he’s on the cusp of making the cut of the videos he posts on.
Sidd#21– I’m trying to get into scouting/player development so I’ll be forced to make snap judgments on players that the organization I’ll work for will be giving out large bonuses to. I’ll be paid to give out opinions and when I form a strong opinion, I certainly won’t back down from it.
Re: Kozma-LaPorta
I am currently an instructor. Does that mean that I can’t compare kids’ techniques to what Roger Clemens does because they’re here and he’s over there? I’m not comparing body type, position, and all that….I’m simply comparing the “technique.” I’m not comparing Kozma and LaPorta. I’m comparing Kozma’s technique to LaPorta’s technique…big difference there…
Erik–don’t despair. You guys have been good to me. Todd is a guy who is almost certainly in, and he’s very interesting to me
Thanks Carlos,
Carlos,
Hey, while I got you on our good side here, have you looked at Clay Mortenson? He didn’t put really impressive numbers for Gonzaga this year,and he wasn’t even drafted until now that he’s a senior. Obviously the Cardinals really like him, they made him their 2nd pick. And some at Baseball America like him too. I figure from a scout’s perspective, he has to be doing something right. Maybe you could shed some light? I’m not asking for a video breakdown at THT, maybe you could just look at his video and share some off the cuff thoughts.
-Erik
Erik,
Mortenson is a guy who is already on my list as well. I like his mechanics quite a bit, although I’ll go more in-depth when I sit down to write the article. He’ll be in on either part 4 or part 5.
I just have to throw out the fact that, for a guy who “doesn’t have very much power potential”, Kozma has hit for an awful lot of power as a skinny 18yo kid. Home run every 10 at bats, 1.720 OPS, etc.
I guess we’ll see how it turns out…
sleepyca,
that’s great and all, but that’s against inferior competition with aluminum bats. those are amazing numbers and all, but remember the context. obviously, the cardinals like his athleticism and i would think they would know more about his swing then most. maybe they feel he’s fixable. we’ll see.
i’m in this converstion a little late but i watched pete and his brother in the cages the 28th of june in Owasso and he can hit,with a lot of pop, his work ethic is great and is looking forward to getting on the field. you can check out his high school numbers at http://www.owassobaseball.com and see the program he came from if you like. Okla has very competitve teams,and Owasso travels to Fla. every spring break to play the best. I’m a little partial…bet you can’t guess where i’m from.