Move Him On Up Installments: QC Hitters, QC Pitchers, PB hitters, PB Pitchers
With the draft over, I’m free to resume sifting out the chaff and wheat in the organization. And frankly, I’d like to do that before Luhnow starts his Kansas City shuffle and goes left while I look right (name that movie).
Coming up from Palm Beach:
1B/3B - Allen Craig - DOB: 07/18/1984
2B/3B/SS - Dan Nelson - DOB: 02/12/1984
The Nelson promotion is an aggressive one has he wasn’t hitting particularly well but had a terrific walk rate. Craig needs to move up. He’s probably not going to stick at 3B defensively but while he’s in the minors that doesn’t matter overly much. If there’s an opening, we can stick him there. Springfield is home to the best cache of Cardinals position player prospects in the entire system. There’s a lot to like here and there’s some more reliable stats to back them up. We aren’t in A-ball anymore boys and girls.
C - Bryan Anderson - DOB: 12/16/1986
2007 Stats: .282/.354/.417/.771, BB% - 10.2%, K% - 14.7%
Looking up at: Memphis Roster Filler
Anderson is doing all the right things. He’s walking at an acceptable clip, he’s not striking out too often, he’s making contact. He’s 20 years old in AA and he’s still got plenty of time to improve his game. He still needs some improvement defensively, but that bat looks like it can make up for some defensive deficiencies. I’d like to think that as he continues to get older and stronger, some of those line drives and flyballs are going to turn into HRs. His top BP comparable is Brian McCann (that’d be nice). He’s also got some other sweet bats listed in Jarrod Saltalamacchia, James Loney, Adrian Gonzalez, Hank Blalock and Joe Mauer. I’m pretty pleased by that list of comparables. Anderson probably won’t hit more than 20HRs a season at his peak but he should stay right around that area while hitting for average. Still, he’s not ready yet. Verdict: Stayin’ put
2B - Jarrett Hoffpauir - DOB: 06/18/1983
2007 Stats: .320/.400/.477/.877, 17BB:14K, .157 ISO
Looking up at: Edgar Gonzalez, Mike McCoy
He’s not hitting for a lot of power but he’s hitting for contact and taking walks as he repeats Springfield. He’s got more walks than strikeouts and an acceptable level of power for a middle infielder. There isn’t a lot of depth for the Cardinals at 2B so Hoff isn’t really being blocked by anybody in Memphis. Verdict: Move him on up
1B/RF - Joe Mather - DOB: 07/23/1982
2007 Stats: .312/.400/.634/1.034, .322 ISO, 13.4% BB rate
Looking up at: Tagg Bozied, Rico Washington, Nick Stavinoha
Some people would point to Mather’s .322 ISO and gawk. Others his 1.034 OPS. Me, I’m a huge fan of the increased walk rate. The caveat to that is that I don’t know how many times he’s been walked intentionally. Still, it’s hard to deny that Mather has taken a huge step forward. He’s old for AA at 25 but he’s also crushing the ball. He’s cut down on his strikeouts, increased his walk rate and making better contact. His BABIP sits at .294 so it looks like all his stats are legit to boot. There’s no way to say that Mather hasn’t earned a promotion. Verdict: Move him on up
OF - Sean Danielson - DOB: 08/06/1982
2007 Stats: .344/.397/.456/.853, .372 BABIP, 25% LD, .112 ISO
Looking up at: Nick Stavinoha, John Rodriguez, Rick Ankiel
That’s a trio of players above you that all need to be on the field day in day out. Danielson is putting up some nice numbers after an in-season promotion. That BABIP is high and will regress to the mean in all likelihood. Given his low ISO and inability to hit the ball with authority, I suspect better pitchers would be able to over power Danielson. He may be able to hit for average but his skillset looks limited. Verdict: Stayin put
CF - Colby Rasmus - DOB: 08/11/1986
Looking up at: Skip Schumaker, Rick Ankiel
2007 Stats: .279/.368/.530/.899, 50% FB rate, .385 wOBA
wOBA is a stat featured in The Book. Basically its a weighted gradient of a players offensive production. .340 is average, .400 is very good. Rasmus is an above average offensive player. But you already knew that. He’s hitting a ridiculous number of flyballs and 33 of his 60 hits have been for extra bases. He’s slumping a little bit recently hitting just under .200 in his last 10 games. Still his overall numbers look stellar. You’re probably expecting me to say that I’d promote him. And while I don’t think Rasmus would be overmatched in AAA here’s why I want him to stay in AA. Against left handed pitching, Rasmus is hitting .204/.353/.389/.742. He’s got a .210 OPS split between LH and RH pitchers. Rasmus is undoubtedly the CF of the future and I want to make sure he’s the most complete CF that he can be. With Jim Edmonds hitting well at the big-league level and Rick Ankiel getting looked at in CF, there’s no reason to rush Rasmus. He simply isn’t ready to face advanced LH pitchers. Verdict: Stayin put
There’s some players in Springfield that are hurt right now but interesting prospects nonetheless. Jon Jay (shoulder) and Cody Haerther are both on the disabled list. Jay in particular is someone I like. Obviously they stay in Springfield to get well and get some more at bats but they shouldn’t be forgotten. The other player that I still think has an outside shot at being a regular in the majors is Tyler Greene. He’s got legitimate power and takes a fair number of walks. The problem is Greene seems inacapable of hitting for average. Still, he’s not being pressed by any other shortstop in the organization so the Cardinals have time to let him simmer. If Greene can cut down on his strikeouts, I think the tools are still there for him to progress. I’m normally not a fan of prospects that have dithered for extended periods of time but Greene has the tools, imo.
So, Mather and Hoffpauir move up to Memphis. Mather will likely play 1B at Memphis if only because there’s a ton of “they might make it” outfielders at Memphis. I’d move Juan Richardson (he’s Springfield roster filler) over to first and let Craig play at 3rd to see if he can improve his defense.
Filed under: Minor Leagues, analysis
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
Az, good analysis as usual. I was going to post this below in our conversation about Mather, but I’ll do it here. I’m with you that I would just DFA Bozzied and Washington as I don’t see them as being very effective major leaguers or even an outside chance of that happening. How much playing time has Washington been getting? I mean, he’s not really taking ABs away from anyone. Bozzied is and that is a problem. Those really should be Mather’s ABs in my book.
Question: Has Ankiel played at all at first? My only concern with moving Mather up is that he doesn’t get significant experience in the OF. Between the DH slot and first, he gets his ABs but let’s face it, he’s not going to get Major League playing time at first. His career path with the Cards is as a fourth outfielder.
Your point below is really valid and probably the bottom line. If DeWitt is putting a firm salary cap on, then the Cards need to fill minor areas (LOOGY, fourth OF, set up guy) with cheaper home grown alternatives.
Ankiel hasn’t played time at first but the Cardinals seem pretty committed to him in the OF. The other option is if the Cardinals are committed to Gooch, then release Schumaker. At that point he’s really a redundant part.
I wouldn’t be too worried about Mather for the rest of this season. The goal would be to get him up to AAA and see how he hits. If he continues to slug 500+ they’ll work him into the OF as necessary. Even if that is the case I’m highly doubtful he makes the club at the start of next year. He’s probably going to have to spend a while in Memphis next year too and by then, hopefully, some of these marginal outfield bats will be gone. The Cardinals are too set on having these AAAA guys in case someone goes down. They’ve got real prospects on the way now and players like Schumaker, Bozied and Washington need to give way.
Jarrett Hoffpauir doesn’t look at all ready to face advanced LHP either. He’s not blocked like Rasmus and is three years older, but he needs to improve against lefties.
I didn’t realize he was having such a good season, though. Good to see.
Recently rasmus seems to have been hitting into bad luck again. A few of the games i have looked at it seems like alot of his outs are pop ups to the outfield. He probably just needs to settle down and reflect upon his recent struggles and just start trying to square up the ball again.
Also, I’m hoping that we can trade enc and something else for some pitching. Also, I would like to drop one or two of the AAAA starters. Then we can promote Ankiel and Stavinoha to the mlb. Hopefully then we can move Rasmus, Mather, and any starters that need it up to AAA. Hopefully Jay at some point will come back and he can move into the hole that rasmus will leave.
Liam — I think the Hoffpauir against lefties is something of a sample size anomaly. Looking at his splits from last year he hit LH considerably better in an equally small number of at bats.
Holy smokes, AZ… A 23:4 BB:K last year!
He’s creating his own sample size issues with that kind of plate discipline. Looks like a slightly above average defensive 2B. I’m convinced… Move ‘im on up!
The movie is Lucky Number Slevin
well done Dan.
That’s one of the few movies where I had no idea how it was going to end. Highly recommend that movie.
Ok, I’ll accept that rationale re: the Mather situation. I’m just a little frustrated with the organization’s committment to guys that aren’t going to cut it. I would rather see scarce resources (ABs) go to guys that might be able to produce at the big league level.
After seeing Mather over the weekend, I believe he can contribute at the big league level.
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