John Manuel and Jim Callis at BA are helping me feel a little better about the Cardinals #1 pick Pete Kozma. Here’s the first question Manuel answered:
Here’s what he said in a recent chat:
Jared from St. Louis asks:
Pete Kozma at 18? Couldn’t we have gotten him at 36?Au contrare . . . I like Kozma at 18 a lot, he’s a HS bat who can stay at SS, and he makes sense at 18, you could make the case that he’s better than Kevin Ahrens who went at 16, and I think it was a good pick.
Really? Better then Ahrens? And Ahrens was the guy I would’ve been happy with. OK, so maybe I could be wrong but I’m hearing conflicting reports here. Tell me more, fellas. Here’s what Jim Callis said when asked about the pick:
I didn’t get a chance to say this on the ESPN show, but I liked the Pete Kozma pick at No. 18. He was the best shortstop in the draft for me, the only guy who was going to stay at short and would hit. That’s a good value pick in a draft that was very thin on middle infielders. Kudos to the Cardinals–everyone expected them to go college heavy (including me) and that’s a good pick.
Also re: Mortenson, Kopp Todd, and Eager:
They took very interesting college arms, from Mortensen to Eager to Kopp and Todd. Eager and Todd are probably relievers, and Mortensen to me is the big key. He’s got great stuff at times, sometimes three plus pitches, but he also had a 4.00 ERA for Gonzaga this year, that is hard to get past sometimes. At times I think I like him as a prospect too much, but he’s a personal fave.
Eager and Todd are probably relievers….Ok, well fine. Not sure why you pick those guys high but maybe they’ll surprise as starters. I still really am liking Jess Todd.
And then with regarding Goold’s article with Russell’s ambiguous response, I thought I’d ask the man who penned the article to get his gut read:
Hi Derrick,
Regarding your article regarding the “6th tool” that is signability, it sounds like Russell seems rather eager to get something done. If you could indulge me with your own personal gut feel, do the Cardinals and Russell get it done or does he head back to Texas?
DG: In talking with Russell, he did seem eager to get a deal done. I asked him several times why the perception is that the was headed back to college and couldn’t be talked out of it. He explained that it might have something to do with the singals he sent out as a high schooler, or just because people see sophomore, Texas, twice-out in the regional round and connect the dots. Either way, he’s raking in the awards this summer and I get the sense that if the Cardinals offer near the price he’s looking for he’ll go pro. It just won’t be any time soon. The Cards seem willing to let him play a bit this summer and have other teams set the price around Russell.
Just passing all that along.
Filed under: 2007 Draft, Clayton Mortensen, David Kopp, Jess Todd, Kyle Russell, Pete Kozma, Thomas Eager
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To me, I don’t think Kozma is a bad player. But does he have a higher ceiling than Harvey, Porcello, J. Jackson, M. Main, or even A. Brackman. I think thats the real question, and my answer would be no, thats why I don’t personally like the pick. If all those players were off the board, then yes in my opinion the Cards would have hit a HR with the Kozma pick, but I like those players more.
I know and I agree. we have these guys now, so i’m trying to find the positives. they did pass repeatedly on guys i would’ve preferred like a few you mentioned or will middlebrooks, etc. i agree with you, but at this point there’s no use crying over spilled milk.
Well quit being all positive, this sucks! I want my milk back!!! You should try getting an interview with the Luhnow though. Just so I can pour some milk on him. I guess I’ll try being all positive like you, okay here it goes. Hopefully Kozma can be a Loretta type hitter, but only 2004 Loretta.
In an interview on BP with Twins’ scouting director Mike Radcliff, who is damn good at his job. Here’s this tidbit:
In our case, we had our fingers crossed on a few guys we thought we had a chance to get, like Nick Schmidt, Pete Kozma, and maybe two or three others, but they didn’t make it to our pick.
Good info and great coverage. I am really enjoying your blog and wanted to mention that to the both of you. As for the draft, I tivoed it, came home and after the second pick literally tore up my baseball america magazine that had just told me we drafted the 100 and something best prospect with #34/36 whatever. Started yelling and generally scaring my wife with my bs antics, but…. I hadn’t been that pissed since — well — we sent Reyes down…
I’ll take Callis’ opinion over Keith Law and some of the other ESPNers… At the end of the day I would have rather gotten one big name, Porcello, but what the hell, I’ll take what we got.
Random trade proposal - Chris Perez to the SF Giants for Jonathan Sanchez –
Can anyone tell me why Wells and Wellemeyer are in our rotation over Reyes and Hawksworth… Hell, I’d say call up Jaime if it wouldn’t start his clock so early…
Anyway - Thanks for the glass half full analysis tonight. I needed it!
By the way, Ankiel is 4/5 with a dong… What are the odds he gets called up in early August?
“To me, I don’t think Kozma is a bad player. But does he have a higher ceiling than Harvey, Porcello, J. Jackson, M. Main, or even A. Brackman. I think thats the real question, and my answer would be no, thats why I don’t personally like the pick. If all those players were off the board, then yes in my opinion the Cards would have hit a HR with the Kozma pick, but I like those players more.”
while i agree with you that those guys have higher ceilings, the probability of reaching that ceiling has to come into play as well. lets just look at justin jackson since he is the only player that is really comparable to kozma. can jackson field? yes, he is a pretty good defensive shortstop, but so is kozma. does he have more power potential than kozma? probably. can he hit for average? maybe, but a lot of people question his bat. i have not read one report that questions pete kozma’s bat.
i don’t know where the loretta comp comes from. everyone says he is going to be able to stick at short, and loretta has almost always been a 2nd baseman. are they similar type hitters? maybe, but i think kozma has better tools. i think if kozma reaches his potential, he is going to be a .300 hitter that fills the gaps and hits 10-15 homers a year. that’s not mark loretta, that is edgar renteria without the 30 steals.
AZ, your point sucks, well mostly because Radcliff made the worst 1st round pick of them all. Really just messing with you, but still terrible pick by the Twins.
FGC, I hear what your saying but from what I read over at PG they say all this stuff about Jackson’s hitting ability not being that good is purely exxageration. Could he like Main be suffering from the classic Matt Leinart disease? (been around for so long you nit pick the hell out of them) I think maybe so, but then again I could be wrong. I hope like hell Kozma does turn out better than Jackson, but to me Jackson has the much better tools.
shhhh — Radcliff has been the scouting director since 94 in Minnesota. He picked Morneau, Mauer and Hunter. I didn’t like the Revere pick either (agree that it was the worst of the first round) but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt given how good the Twins system has been for an extended period of time.
I know I was just messing with you.