Future Redbirds

Well, it’s been a pretty long and exhausting day, but I’m still up for taking a look at these first 7 picks the Cardinals have made–

First of all, the Pete Kozma kerfluffle. At this point, I don’t know what to make of it. Goold says the Cardinals first choice was right-handed high school pitcher Blake Beavan, which would’ve been nice but he got nabbed by the Rangers with the previous pick. There was a good deal of others I would’ve rather seen the Cardinals select at that point, and they very possibly could’ve picked up a similar player in Justin Jackson in the next round.

Jim Callis, a guy who’s been in this biz a long time, had Kozma going to the Reds with the 15th pick, if that’s any consolation. I keep reading about him not having any stand out tool, but he’s 19 (did he flunk kindergarten, or something?) so it’s not like he’s stuck in neutral. Per the official site-

Comparisons for Kozma vary widely. The first name Luhnow dropped was that of Nomar Garciaparra, but Gossett also drew parallels to Jack Wilson and Mark Loretta. The club believes Kozma will hit for average and will be able to play shortstop in the Major Leagues.

“He’s got a great swing that doesn’t need to be changed from aluminum to wood,” Luhnow said. “He should have a successful pro career. And being a middle infielder, he won’t get blocked by anybody ahead of him, despite the fact that we took a shortstop [Tyler Greene] two years ago and we’ve signed a lot of shortstops out of Latin America. He’s the type of guy that, if he hits — and we’re pretty confident he’ll hit — he’s going to play every day.”

Jack Wilson? Mark Loretta? Let’s hope for much better then that. At least he adds depth at a position the Cardinals are lacking in, all I can say is I hope his ceiling is higher then projected, but I’m not holding my breath. Luhnow says he could develop power later, a la Nomar Garciaparra. I think we’d all love that. I lived in the Tulsa area for 5 years, they have had some pretty good players that have come out of that area (Brad Penny comes immediately to mind.) I think it’s OK.

The Clayton Mortenson pick is what made me angry. I just don’t get it. They could’ve had Harvey or Cecil to name just a couple and they ended up picking a college senior because of his potential? This smacks of the Gary Daley pick from last year (who has sucked so far), only Daley was drafted in the 3rd round and he and Mortenson are the same age. The fact that he posted a 3.92 ERA pitching half of his games in an extreme pitchers park for Gonzaga is less then encouraging. His defensive independent ERA however is a much more plausible 2.91. He was ranked by BA as the #119th best player in the draft. He would’ve been a nice pick…in the 4th round.

Then things stayed weird. The Cardinals selected David Kopp of Clemson in the 2nd round. Says BA of Kopp-

Somewhat enigmatic, Kopp has been inconsistent with his control and velocity, but at his best he flashed middle-of-the-rotation stuff. He stayed behind and on top of the ball better during his delivery this spring and improved his direction to the plate. His fastball ranges from 91-96 mph, sitting at 92. He gets sink and run from his three-quarters arm slot, though he doesn’t repeat his release point. His changeup is a weapon, but his 81-83 mph slider shows potential of becoming a legitimate put-away pitch. He needs to improve his mental approach and confidence, especially in tight situations. Kopp has more upside than the typical college righthander in this year’s draft, and he could be taken as early as the second round.

Well, at least they don’t think he’s a total reach. He struck out 75 in 98 innings while walking 25 and giving up 7 HR’s, not anything to write home about. His peripherals show he’s actually pitched worse then his ERA indicated, as his DERA was 4.18 verses his actual ERA of 3.67, albeit the ACC is a tough conference to pitch in. I see a couple of running themes here, the mysterious “upside” word, college pitchers, and sinkerballers.

With the next pick, the Cardinals seemed to reach again, picking yet another college pitcher in Jess Todd of Arkansas. Todd opened the season as the Razorback’s closer but pitched mostly in the rotation. I liked finding this scouting report at BA-

Arkansas has a weekend rotation made up of pitchers who could go in the first three rounds of the draft: Nick Schmidt, Duke Welker and Todd. Todd has the best stuff of the trio, starting with a 90-94 mph four-seam fastball and a hard mid-80s slider that ranks as one of the best in the draft. He also throws an upper-80s two-seamer and a circle changeup that acts like a splitter.

He’s said to have a violent delivery, which means he could end up in the bullpen. College…check….sinker…check…”upside”…sure. I actually kinda like this pick, he’s been a strikeout machine this season with 128 K’s in 93 innings, while walking 26. The crazy thing is, they still could’ve had Matt Harvey at this point.

Then more craziness ensued. The Cardinals took David Delscalso with the 112th pick (above Harvey) Who? Here’s BA’s blurb-

He controls the strike zone, takes a healthy hack from the left side and has a knack for getting the fat part of the bat on the ball. His thick body turns some scouts off, though he has some athleticism. He’s a third baseman primarily but has played some second, and his bat would play better there. He’s an average runner and could go in the first 10 rounds.

Wow, he might have gone in the first 10, but juuust to be safe the Cardinals picked him in the third… Absurd. Anyway, this had to be driven by performance. Delscalso put up some impressive numbers in a pitchers park against one of college baseball’s most competitive schedules and posted a .397/.474/.569 line. If he can move to second and rake then I guess it ain’t half bad, but they didn’t have to use their Go-go gadget arms to reach that far up for a 3rd baseman with such limited power. Adjusted for park and strength of schedule, his OPS comes out to be 1.209.

I have to say after witnessing all this, I was getting pretty discouraged. Then they drafted Kyle Russell in the 4th round. Ow, heck yeah! Here’s what Kevin Goldstein had to say about Russell-

28. Kyle Russell, OF, Texas
Pros: Top of the scale power rates a pure 80 on 20-80 scouting scale; he set a new Texas home run mark with 28 in 223 at-bats, eclipsing the previous mark of 20; power isn’t his only tool–also a decent runner with a solid arm.
Cons: Prone to strikeouts in bunches, as his swing is not one with natural loft, with more of a pure loopy uppercut; some scouts point to several home runs that were a product of aluminum bats.

Russell led the NCAA with a .877 slugging percentage. For Texas, which has a home park factor of .870. Park and schedule adjusted, his OPS comes out to a whopping 1.455. I am a little worried about the K’s, apparently so were a lot of teams. He still ranked high by KG at #25 and Baseball America at #35 nationally, and he came to the Cards with the #142nd pick. Luhnow redeemed himself a good bit with that one. His TTO (three true outcomes, calculated (HR+BB+K)/(AB+BB)) rating this season was a McGwire-esque .513. Even if he turns out to be Rob Deer or Jay Buhner, I’d be thrilled. Now you have to wonder…at what level does he start at? I don’t know, but they better pay him or he could head back to Texas for his junior year, which would be a real shame.

For the last pick of the day, Luhnow picked Thomas Eager, a sophomore from Cal Poly. More BA blurbage:

Cal Poly had a disappointing 2006 season despite a solid rotation that included third-rounder Gary Daley (Cardinals) and sixth-rounder Bud Norris (Astros). Eager stepped forward more than any other Mustang to replace them, emerging as the ace and surpassing both Daley and Norris in terms of performance. His 10 victories left him two shy of the school record, but despite his performance, most scouts see him profiling better as a middle reliever or even a closer. Eager’s delivery resembles that of former “Nasty Boys” closer Rob Dibble, as he comes aggressively at hitters with his lead arm in an almost violent motion. If only he threw as hard as Dibble. The delivery creates some deception for his firm stuff, a 90-91 mph fastball that has hit 93 and features average sink, and a hard slider. Eager comes hard after hitters and doesn’t change speeds much, which also feeds the Dibble comparison. He’s fairly emotional on the mound, which works for him and against him at times.

BA ranked him #133rd nationally overall. Eager struck out 99 in 126 innings this season, while walking 50 and allowing 6 HRs. (Against a tough schedule) I’m not a fan of picking another future reliever with control issues, but maybe he can work on taking some of the effort out of his delivery and stop walking guys. Sure, no problem. College arm…sink…Nasty boys. Fits the MO for the day.

All and all, there’s not a lot to like here outside of Russell and I suppose Kozma. (I can live with him, doesn’t mean I like the pick completely, per se.) I’m not really liking so far how it went down. Time will tell, but the extreme tendency for college arms who don’t project as much more then bottom of the rotation starters or middle relievers is pretty disheartening. We’ll see how they do tomorrow, they still have some interesting names on the board.