Future Redbirds

When I saw the Memphis Redbirds a few weeks ago, I formed some firm opinions about shortstop Brendan Ryan, who exhibited very good range and an outstanding arm in the game that I saw. Baseball America listed this guy as the organization’s 12th-best prospect entering the 2007 season; given the uncertain status of David Eckstein and the lack of any other major-league-ready shortstops in the system, Ryan would seem to have a clean shot at earning a job with the Cardinals next year. Is he ready, or anywhere close? I asked Erik if I could do a guest post on the subject here at FR, and he said sure. I even agreed to use capital letters, since that’s the house style.

First off, a little background. Ryan grew up in Southern California and led his high school team to the California state championship game, then spent two years at Lewis and Clark State College in Lewiston, Idaho. The Cardinals took him in the 7th round of the 2003 draft, 6 rounds after Daric Barton and 8 rounds ahead of Anthony Reyes. He started his pro career at short-season A, where he made 14 errors but hit very well for a middle infielder, .311 / .363 / .425. Ryan spent all of 2004 in low A and had another good year with the bat (.322 / .356 / .404), then split 2005 between high A and double A, putting up a combined line of .284 / .339 / .398 — again, pretty good numbers for a middle infielder. His glove remained a question mark, though, as he committed 29 errors. Last spring he was added to the 40-man roster and appeared in 7 of the Cardinals’ spring training games; he was slated to begin the year at double A but got hurt at the end of spring training and spent nearly all season rehabbing. He ended up hitting .265 in 117 at-bats, the last 26 of which came at Memphis. After the season, the Cardinals shipped Ryan to the prospect-rich Arizona Fall League, where he led the league in at-bats and ranked 13th in batting average (.310) but made 8 errors in 28 games.

Here’s a feature on Ryan that ran last spring at MILB.com; and here’s his complete minor-league record.

Now 25 years old, Ryan has struggled this season against triple A pitching. His walk rate has improved slightly, an encouraging sign, but his isolated power has dipped below .100 and he’s hitting only .243 as of this writing. Right-handers have killed him — he’s at .214 / .265 / .266 against them (but .321 / .406 / .446 vs lefties). He also has an extremely low line-drive rate — just over 13 percent. A normal rate would be somewhere in the 18 to 20 percent range. (Both the platoon split and the batted-ball data courtesy Minor League Splits.)

I got some pictures of Ryan at bat during the 7th inning of that game, facing Matt Herges (who threw 71 innings for the Marlins last season and not all that long ago (2004) saved 23 games for the Giants). The Redbirds had just tied the game 4-4 and had a man on first base with one out. Here are the pixs:

I have a few thoughts about Ryan’s approach at the plate — and let me acknowledge up front that I’m no batting coach, just an old know-it-all who has watched way too many baseball games. First of all, check out Ryan’s posture in the picture on the left; that’s his stance as the pitcher goes into the windup. It makes no sense to me — he’s got his arms very close to his chest, his elbows tucked in, his hands right in front of his rib cage, and his bat almost completely vertical. He also holds his torso rigidly upright and back over his heels, to the point that his body seems to angling slightly away from the plate — and he stands far away from the plate to begin with. He’s in no position to hit the ball hard.

Now check out the second picture: This is Ryan’s hitting position, which he unfolds into as the pitcher winds up and delivers the pitch. This looks much better to me: His hands are back behind his shoulder, arms and elbows are cocked, the bat is angled, and the attitude of his body is forward\ again — toward home plate, rather than away. That looks like a hitter. You’ll note that the ball is just crossing the plate; Ryan took it for a ball. He walked on five pitches in that plate appearance and never swung the bat, so I didn’t get any shots of his swing.

But even in these two pictures, I note a couple of interesting things. One I’ve already mentioned: the attitude of his body, which appears to list away from the plate in the initial stance but comes forward by the time the ball gets to the plate. That seems like a lot of unnecessary and unwanted movement to me; I would think you’d want to keep the hinges and levers of your swing as stationary as possible. The other thing that moves a lot is Ryan’s head. In the first picture, his chin is in about the same plane as the bottom of the green fence in the background. Look where his chin falls in the second picture — it’s wayyy below that plane. Likewise, in the first picture the top of Ryan’s helmet is nearly at the top of the fence, but in the second picture it’s well below the bottom of the fence — ie, it’s below where his chin started out. His head moves more than an entire head-length. That sure seems like a lot of head movement. For comparison’s sake, check out Carlos Beltran’s head in the video at this post — his head moves, at most, 1/4 of a head-length. watch albert’s head in these videos — it barely moves at all.

Maybe this has worked for Ryan throughout his career, and maybe it can work for him moving forward; maybe it’s no big deal. As I said, I’m not a coach. But when I watched him bat in person, the peculiarities jumped right out at me. No wonder he can’t hit, I thought; his whole approach at the plate seems strange and inefficient.

I would say the exact opposite of Ryan in the field, however, In that regard he looks every bit like a major-leaguer — gets quick jumps and has a first-rate throwing arm. He made an excellent play in the first inning, ranging far to his right to field a groundball and tossing out the runner with ease — not even a close play. In the second he made an even better play, getting to a grounder that was hit just to the left of third baseman Travis Hanson, who was playing in on the grass. Hanson failed to cut the ball off, but Ryan ranged 6 or 7 steps into the hole, fielded the ball, and then gunned the man out. He was moving away from 1st base and at least 120 feet away when he uncorked the throw — still got the out. He really got to show off that arm in the 4th, firing a relay to the plate on a double to the left-centerfield fence; his throw traveled 175 feet or more and got to the catcher chest-high, hit him right in the mitt. The runner scored, but Ryan’s throw made the play closer than it ought to have been.

I can’t seem to find any minor-league fielding stats, not even basic counting stats like assists and double plays, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Ryan leads PCL shortstops in some or all of those categories. He has made 6 errors this year, on pace for about 20 miscues over 162 games — not a great total but not terrible, especially in light of his superior range.

Could he step in next year and hold down the position for a year or two? I believe he should at least be in the conversation, but he’ll have to show improvement at the plate to be a serious contender. If he can raise his ops into the .720 range, improve that line-drive rate and show a little bit more ability vs right-handers, then the idea starts to become plausible. Eckstein had a .694 ops last year and, despite his recent surge, is only at .660 this season; he’ll be 33 next year and is battling health problems for the second straight year. A .660 ops might be the best Ryan can muster in the big leagues, but he’s already better than Eckstein with the glove — much better, judging from what I saw. So if he can just come close to matching Eckstein’s performance at the plate, his superior glove might make up most or all of the difference. And that’s not even accounting for salary.

If Ryan finishes strong and can put up, say, a .740 ops over the last 80 games of the triple A schedule, I would consider him to be at least as good an option for 2008 as the incumbent shortstop in St. Louis.