You can take St. Louisan Max Scherzer off your draft wish lists. He’s officially a DBack.
Jonathan Mayo at MLB.com has his recent draft forecast. After having Matt LaPorta going to the Cardinals at #18 in his last mock, he has Jake Arrieta as the Cardinals #1 pick of the draft this week.
18. St. Louis Cardinals: Jake Arrieta, RHP, Texas Christian University
There was a temptation to put a Boras guy here because the Cardinals can do that, but it didn’t make sense to force the issue. That being said, if Andrew Brackman bounces back with a strong regional start later this week, he could very well figure into the picture here. Instead, I’ll go with a “safe” pick in Arrieta. He’s had an up-and-down season, but he turned in a dandy at UNLV last week and will get a regional start in to give scouts one last look. The Cardinals have enjoyed the Lone Star State in recent drafts and even took a Horned Frog pitcher last year, Brad Furnish.
I’m not really feeling it. Arrieta projected as a possible top 10-15 pick at the beginning of the season but his stock has dropped with his fastball’s effectiveness. He’s struggled with his command much of this season but seems to have righted his ship lately. He’d be a nice sandwich pick, but I can’t say I’d be happy if the Cardinals took him at #1. Mayo mentions Andrew Brackman as a possibility, and he on the other hand is pretty intriguing.
Brackman’s draft status is pretty murky now. I’ve seen him as high as #4 and as low as #24 on some mock drafts. His raw talent is something to behold but the results haven’t quite matched up. He’s also been suffering from a tired arm as of late and has missed some games. His 3.81 ERA actually matches his peripherals, his fielding independent ERA bizarrely comes out to 3.81. He’s struck out 74 in 76 innings, while walking 37 and allowing 78 hits. Brackman is a two sport star, at 6-10, 230 you can probably guess what other sport he plays. He throws a 92-97 MPH fastball, both the four-seamer and a two-seamer. He also sports a biting knuckle curve. As an ex-basketball player with good stuff, he of course evokes comps to Padre’s Chris Young, but he hasn’t dominated like Young did as a collegiate and I worry about his durability. He’s a gamble, but I think it may be a worthy one. I think with some more experience with baseball his focus, good coaching and a good conditioning program, he could turn out to be a good #2-#3 starter. But there’s certainly a risk factor involved, especially considering he’s represented by Bora$.
Filed under: 2007 Draft
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
It’ll be interesting to see if they shy away from Boras clients after some apparent bad blood over the Weaver negotiations.
I swear to god if the Cardinals draft another safe college pitcher in the first round I will break them.
+1 Danup
I think Arrieta would be another bad pick. The two picks after the Cardinals pick in this mock are Borbon and Bumgarner, I would much rather have either one of them than Arrieta.
Of course I’m still high as hell on Harvey coming to StL if he falls to us, but in this mock he doesn’t. Also if Heyward were to fall to us if Atlanta picks Smoker instead I would be a very happy Cardinal fan.
In the Perfect Game mock that I believe was just released today it has our pick like this:
“18. St. Louis Cardinals – Nick Schmidt, LHP, Arkansas
College players are always on the Cardinals radar, and similar to a few of the other teams that pick in this area, the Cards may also be willing to take a chance on a player that is perceived to be a more difficult sign. Schmidt makes sense given some of the players they have taken in recent years given his success in college, and may move quickly.”
Now I really wouldn’t be that happy with that pick either, but it’s better than the Arrieta pick in my mind.
PG also has 4 candidates who could fall, them being, Brackman, Harvey, Borbon, and McGeary.
Joe Strauss said in his chat Wednesday he thinks that they will go heavy on high schoolers this year…my hunch is the will take a pitcher given this class, which would be setting a new precedent for sure. My hope is for Phillippe Amonte, Josh Smoker or Micahel Main.
Shhh..I’m with you, I’m not a fan of Arrieta or Schmidt for that matter. Harvey may be off the board by then, but he would be a nice pick. I have no interest in Borbon, he doesn’t walk, everything in his game is based on BA.
I was wondering if any of the first round rated college pitchers already throw sinkers. It just seems to me that if this is going to be a organizational philosophy, we should be drafting playings that possess the pitch instead of trying to force feed it to kids that don’t throw it…
bigjawnmize,
i agree with you. that’s why this Brackman caught my eye, one of his main pitches is the 2 seamer. James Simmons of UC Riverside is a possible supplemental pick who throws an above average 2 seamer.
Brackman is interesting, I don’t like the fact that they have basically shut him down. This is one of those conversations that I am going to throw out there on VEB during the draft. I will pop over here as well…
luhnow said on the radio that they are looking to hit a homerun with the 18th pick. my guess….michael main.
FGC,
That’s been my gut read as well.
Michael Main the pitcher or Michael Main the outfielder? I’m guessing the pitcher.(Stll like Harvey more.)
Either way I would like that pick, over most.
Also, just curious does anyone know anything about these 3 college pitchers:
Mitch Harris (Navy)
Chance Chapman (Oral Roberts)
Adam Mills (Charlotte)
Just got done watching the “MLB Draft Preview” show with Mayo and Goldstein because I’m a procrastinator.
Mayo as we already know had us picking Arrieta. Then Goldstein’s pick for us was Andrew Brackman. (Both had Harvey going to the Rangers right in front of us.)
FGC, you think that may be the homerun Luhnow was talking about?
He is a very risky pitcher, and the Cards did draft Mark McCormick, so I could see it happen.
Personally I don’t like Brackman that much, but does anyone else have any opinions on him?
His line this year: 78 IP 74 SO 8.54 K/9 3.81 BB/9 37 BB 4.27 ERA 78 Hits 1.47 WHIP 13/13 G/GS.
Still a much better pick than Arrieta who has a similiar stat line but not near the upside.