Click here or scroll down for yesterday’s daily report.
After a bit of scouring the web to get a better idea of the top talent out there, here’s part 2 of the series. There’s not a ton of method to my madness, so forgive me if these posts spray like a buckshot. Just reading some of the scouting reports of who may realistically be available and attractive to the Cardinals, here are a few more that have caught my eye. Anywho, here goes nothing—
My first real stab at who the Cardinals could take at #1 is high school 3rd baseman Matt Dominguez. Dominguez is a teammate of another top prospect Matt Moustakas, who also can play third bill will very likely be off the board by the time #18 rolls around. Dominguez is 6-2, 185 pounds and is seen as a bit of a project at the plate due to some difficulties in finding consistency with his swing. But there is no question about his potential, particularly in the area of power. He also is highly praised for his defensive ability. He has a higher ceiling then the aforementioned Todd Frazier, but is of course further away in terms of immediate impact. He also has committed to play for Cal State Fullerton, so he will take some prying to get on board. Since he’s a certain first rounder, that shouldn’t be much of a hurdle.
Another prep 3rd baseman that’s very intriguing is the self-made switch hitter Kevin Ahrens. Actually, he’s currently playing shortstop but many feel because of his size and lack of speed a move to third is in order. Scouting reports I’ve read note this quick hands and powerful stroke from the right and left side and because he’s drawn comparisons to Chipper Jones. He has a strong, accurate arm and good hands. At #18, Ahrens would be a bit of a reach. He may still be available at #36, and if so would be a nifty pickup.
You may have noticed I’ve listed out in the past two posts three different 3rd baseman, frankly it’s because it looks like Scott Rolen is circling the drain as of late. Frazier is the best collegiate available that could provide impact in the next year or two, while Dominguez and Ahrens are going to need their time in developing but are thought to have very high ceilings.
There is very real chance Max Scherzer could be available at #18 if the Cardinals decide to once again go the pitcher route for #1, but I’m not quite sure that’s the route I they should take. First of all there is Scott Boras, but that hasn’t stopped the Cardinals before. Second of all, there is concerns for his health. He’s signed with an Indy League team as of late to showcase his talents, and in his first outing he was flashing his normal 96-98 fastball. In his second outing he was down about 5-6 MPH. He did however show a better change up. (All this lovely info comes courtesy of MLB.com’s “Geeking the Draft” blog.) A knock on Scherzer has been that he throws with a good bit of effort and many scouts see him as a closer rather then a starter due to a lack of secondary stuff. He’s interesting, but frankly he makes me nervous and would not come cheap. I’d sooner the team draft a position player first.
Finally, a favorite sleeper of mine is Adam Mills of UNC-Charlotte. Mills is a 6-0, 195 righty who’s dominated the Atlantic Ten conference. This season he has a 11-2 record pitching in 119 innings, allowing just 75 hits, 23 walks and just 1 HR. He has struck out 129. He’s thrown 8 complete games, 4 of which have been shutouts. Hitters have only hit .182 against him. His FIP is 2.60 when adjusted against park and strength of schedule. I haven’t seen him on any lists, so he’d could be available at round 5 or later.
Last word here…If the Cardinals do not take Scherzer at #1, I’d say they will certainly take a hitter. There’s a lot of good pitching talent in the college ranks to be had in this draft but the ones rated the greats will all likely be gone by #18. I have serious doubts the Cardinals will take a high school pitcher in the first round. Based on the way the big club’s offensive core is not aging so well, I’m thinking we’ll see more hitters taken this year then years gone by, but that’s just guesswork. I’ll continue to dig around and keep my ear to the ground as draft day approaches.
Filed under: 2007 Draft
erik
azruavatar
fewgoodcards
roarke49
theredbaaron
I really felt the Cardinals would go hitter in the first round of this draft. But with pitching being so expensive and the organization’s focus on growing its own pitching, now I am not so sure.
It seems that Scherzer has fallen out of favor in some of the things I have read, and I would not be completely surprised if he would be available in the supplemental round.
It would be nice if the Cards started drafting some local talent.
http://whiteyball.wordpress.com
I hope they draft heavy on position players this year. We’ve got a slew of pitchers in the low minors that may or may not turn out but we don’t have many position players (outside of rasmus and anderson) that project well in the minors. I’d like to see them take Dominguez or Moustakas based on your writing, and then draft some HS middle infielders in the later rounds and hope for a steal. Since Greene looks abysmal again this year, they really need to address those key defensive positions.
I agree that the Cards should and probably will focus on position players in this draft. They have come up short repeatedly when trying to project pitchers (with a couple of bright spots like Morris). I was not impressed with Ottavino as last years 1st rounder - too light in the stuff department.
I would also like to say that this blog and fantasy baseball are keeping me afloat with the Cards doing so poorly. Keep up the good work.
Azru-
Moustakas is a top 10 pick by most publications out there, but i’d love to have him if only for the fact I like saying the name Moustakas.
Todd-Thanks for your kind words. It has been a rough season, the minor leaguers are a great escape. Maybe this is how Royals fans feel. As for Ottavino being light in the stuff department I have to respectfully disagree. He’s striking out 11 batters per nine innings. I agree he was a bit of a safe pick last year, but nonetheless you have to admit he’s doing pretty well. He’s picking it in the control department lately as well.
ottavino light in the stuff department? where do you get that idea? he has been clocked at 96 several outings this year and was hitting 98 in his last start. he is also said to have a pretty good slider. if he can’t develop a quality third pitch he could be a dominant reliever.
matt dominguez and kevin ahrens are at the very top of my board for the 18th pick. i don’t think ahrens is an overdraft at all considering baseball america had him going 15th in their latest mock draft.
you said you don’t see them taking a high school pitcher at 18, but this class is very deep in high school pitching (probably the strength of the draft) and if dominguez and ahrens are gone a high school pitcher will probably be the best value. i would hate to see us pass on the best players because “we don’t draft high school pitchers in the first round.”
FGC, I feel the same way, there’s a lot of great HS talent this year but I’d be floored if the Cards pick a high school pitcher in the first round. Earlier I had posted about Jack McGeary and how he could fit the Carndinals bill in the early rounds and was quickly rebuffed by someone I’d consider an expert in the who I’ll leave anonymous. Maybe they’ll surprise us, but I doubt it Luhnow has his shown his tendencies for college players, I doubt he’ll change much now
Erik, I agree with Todd you have a great site.
I believe I have read that you live in Iowa? I am driving up this weekend, Friday at the Gateway Grizzlies, Sat at Peoria, and then Sunday at a Swing game. I am looking forward to seeing Buckman, Shorey, and whoever might be pitching that night. Any suggestions on things to do/see before the game?
http://whiteyball.wordpress.com
Whiteyball..gateway grizzlies…wow. stay away from the burgers there unless you want to give yourself a coronary. I don’t live particularly close to davenport,it’s like a three hour drive. I’ve only been there a couple times, and i’ve never left JOD. sorry i couldn’t be more help there. If you are married, take your wife to Galena, IL, which is not far away. Great restaraunts and shopping, or so i hear.