First of all, be sure to check out Azru’s daily report below or just click here. PJ Walters continues to excite me.
Draft time is almost here. Baseball America has it’s first official mock draft, and here is their best guess on who the Cardinals might select:
18. CARDINALS. Though Wieters is regarded by many as the best position player in the draft, his ties to Boras and the belief that he’ll want a hefty major league contract could cause him to plummet in the first round. St. Louis has drafted several Boras clients in recent years and loves college players with a track record of success at major programs, so the slide could stop here. Scherzer and Florida senior first baseman Matt LaPorta are two more Boras guys who would fit the Cardinals profile. If St. Louis wants a guy who will sign for slot, Arkansas left hander Nick Schmidt (like Scherzer, a St. Louis area product) is a possibility.
• Projected Pick: Matt Wieters.
If this happens, I’ll pee my pants, strip and dance around naked. In other words, I don’t see it happening. Wieters is a catcher, the Cardinals have a fascination with no-hitting, all-glove catchers. Then again, it would be hard for any team to pass on a player who scouts call “the best catching prospect since Joe Mauer.” I highly doubt he will still be on the board when the Cardinals are up, there will be a team willing to spend big money on Wieters before the 18th pick. Some prognosticators even have him going ahead of Vandy’s David Price. I can’t really see Matt LaPorta since he’s a first baseman and nor am I too high on Nick Schmidt.
I have a couple of hunches, one being Rutgers shortstop Todd Frazier. Frazier’s brother is Jeff Frazier, who happens to be in the Tiger Mariners organization. Frazier currently has 19 homers and 53 walks for Rutgers, both among the NCAA leaders. He’s 6′4″, 220 pounds. He’s a shortstop now, but the thought is that he will eventually need to move to third. He has also played some right field for Team USA this past summer. Adjusted for park and strength of schedule, Frazier’s GPA for 2007 thus far is .417. That’s production. He’s also 21 for 25 on stolen base attempts. He just seems like the performance based type of college hitter the Cardinals seem to love. I’m not necessarily saying that’s who they should pick, just my gut guess. If they do pick him however, I’d be reasonably happy, preferably as a sandwich pick.
Another guess I have regarding a player the Cardinals may be interested in after they make a two or three picks is Kellen Kulbacki, the famed James Madison slugger who has hit 24 homers and posted a .464 batting average in 2006. Many scouts feel he’s a product of his a product of his park (1.13 park factor) and that he’s hitting in a weak league (Strength of schedule is ranked 175th overall by Boyd Nation.) His GPA is an astonishing .437 before you tease out his numbers, adjusted for park and schedule it’s still .396. With Luhnow’s track record for picking college hitters with great track records despite what scouts can/cannot agree on, he seems like a safe bet.
Last one for the night, and you may have noticed I haven’t looked at any pitchers yet, but I’m going to go with another hitter and say that the Cards could pick Tony Thomas Jr. out of FSU if he’s still around in the 3rd or 4th round. He hit .442/.538/.761 this season (adjusted GPA .426) for the Seminoles. He’s a middle infielder who comes from a sports family, he also played QB in high school. While that slugging percentage with pretty stout, the thought is with wood bats he’ll hit for less power but still hit for average. I could see him being this year’s Jon Jay type of pick.
Filed under: 2007 Draft
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Jeff Frazier is now in the Mariners’ organization. I saw him play a few weeks ago at Double A West Tennessee.
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Ah, yeah. that’s right. he was traded, wasn’t he?
Your description of the pure ecstacy of getting Weiters is right on! I’m predicting we get Mighty Max Scherzer with the 18th pick.
i’d have a similar reaction if we were able to sign Scherzer as well. I’m not so sure he’ll still be available by then, but we’ll see.
C’mon, more college hitters? Haven’t they learned their lesson in taking these guys? Unless Todd Frazier is going to be ready really soon, what is the point?
Where do they see that Ahrens kid going?
Ryan…I said forecasting,not wishcasting. I’m basing my guesses on the preferences shown previously by Luhnow and the Cards. I’d prefer them to take the best high school hitter available, like matt dominguez if he’s still available. Ahrens would perhaps fit that bill, too, though I really like Frazier’s power.
I think the Cardinals will pass on Frazier at 18 with the hope that he makes it to 36, which he might.
Another guy that BA had falling who I could see the Cards taking is Matt Harvey. Harvey is also advised by Scott Boras so he’ll want close to 2 million to sign.
A Harvey-Frazier first round combination would be oh so sweet.
some may consider it a bit of a reach (at 18 anyway), but i have heard that the cardinals have been all over high school hitters and specifically justin jackson this spring. i don’t know if they are targeting him at 18 or looking at him more for 36, but he is a shortstop with very exciting potential.
fgc,
Jackson would be an interesting pick. I can’t see him at 18 like you said, but from what I read I like his tools and athleticism.
actually, brewerfan.net has jackson as the 18th prospect. i’m not saying that they’re the most knowledgeable people out there, but that site is put together very well by diehard baseball fans. take a look at their draft boards of years past as well. they’ve been reasonably accurate for first round picks.
i also hope that rasmus and anderson have shown lunnow how valuable high school hitters can be, because getting a good hitter that much earlier is so much more valuable to the organization, even if he is a much bigger risk than a college hitter.
could you offer extra general opinions on the card’s overall draft strategy this year on your next draft forecast, like what positions do you think are priority positions?