Future Redbirds

In light of some recent events, we could be seeing top pitching prospect Blake Hawksworth a lot sooner then later. I am certainly not excited about the circumstances around all that, but it’ll be nice to see the possessor of the James Bondsian movie moniker in real life form. Here’s a brief history of “the Hawk”.

• A live arm out of high school and a consensus 1st round draft pick, he fell to the 28th round in 2001 when his commitment to Cal State Fullerton was seen as a pretty big hurdle in getting him signed. Too cool for school, he was signed for nearly $1.5 as a draft and follow pick and made his debut at age 19.
• He impressed in his first season in rookie ball, putting up  a 3:39 K/BB ratio and an ERA of 3.14 as a 19 years old.
• He was even more impressive in his sophomore season in 2003, with a 4.75 K/BB ratio and a FIP ERA of 1.83 in 10 starts of low class A ball. Promoted mid season to Palm Beach, he continued to strike out a batter per inning, and his FIP ERA was 3.29 over 6 starts. Then things took an ugly turn.
• Hawksworth was shut down in July of that ‘03 season to have a bone spur removed in his ankle.
• In ‘04 he appeared in only two games for high Class A Palm Beach in 2004 before undergoing surgery to repair a partially torn labrum.  He missed the rest of the season.
• In ‘05 he returned late in the season, pitching 14 innings and he couldn’t get any one out in the NY Penn, posting a 7.98 ERA and walking 10 batters. I guess I shouldn’t have said he couldn’t get anyone out, he did strike out 10. It was encouraging to see him get back on the mound, and after missing all that time the rust was expected.

That brings us to last season, in which we saw the prospect status of Hawksworth return.  He didn’t really dominate his first season back at Palm Beach, but he kept runs off the board with his 2.47 ERA over 84 innings. He only struck out 5.9 per 9 innings, but his demonstrated good control with a BB/9 rate of 2.05. His FIP was a healthy 2.78

Promoted to Springfield, his K/9 rate jumped up to a more healthy 7.46. On the negative, his walk rate jumped up to 3.5. His FIP was a 4.09 over 13 starts. It was a good return for Blake in that while velocity didn’t return to the 95 mph range, he started to max out at 92 and his terrific change up was still there. Best of all, he pitched 160 innings with no ill effects.

If he does in fact make a start this week, personally I wouldn’t expect the world of him. He has good command of his fastball more often then not, but it’s more in the 88-90 mph range now. Like I said, he can dial it up to 92 on a good day. His changeup is his best pitch, and his curve is average at best. Coming up, he looked like a possible #1, #2 starter. Now he profiles more as a bottom of the rotation pitcher. I’ve read from Goold that some in the org say he’s comparable to Suppan. He really would benefit more from a season at AAA, but sadly the Cardinals may not have that luxury for a while.

For what it’s worth, here’s a couple of his projections:

CHONE: K/9 5.27, BB/9 4.11, HR/9 1.16, FIP 5.20, 70 IP

ZiPS: K/9 5.01, BB/9 3.68, HR/9 1.02, FIP 4.79, 176 innings.