In light of recent developments which I’ll discuss in a bit, here’s my latest “Top 10″, take it for what it’s worth:
1. Colby Rasmus
2. Jaime Garcia
3. Chris Perez
4. Bryan Anderson
5. Blake Hawksworth
6. Adam Ottavino
7. Jon Jay
8. Tyler Greene
9. Dennis Dove
10. Cody Haerther
Rasmus and Garcia are still on top, Chris Perez soars up to #3. Reason being is the early word is he’s hitting 95 on the gun already in camp, and I read a very nice review from Carlos Gomez at BTF, who’s opinion I respect.
I’m higher on Bryan Anderson now then I was before due to his high UPSIDE scores and some good comps, though I’m worried about him contracting “young catcher stagnation syndrome” at some point.
Jon Jay goes to #7, but I still like him like him quite a bit. He’s in the Memphis camp right now, which shows me the Cardinals are quite serious about promoting him aggressively. We’ll see how he fares against stiffer competition. In case you missed it, Jeff Albert broke down his swing at VEB.
Dove shoots way up after making a very favorable impression in camp thus far, flashing a 97 mph 2 seamer. That begs me to ask- how fast he could throw a 4 seamer? Has he tried to throw it? I didn’t know he worked exclusively with the 2 seamer, you’d think he’d have at least a slightly higher GB% then 40% at Palm Beach. With the loss of Kinney, I’m rooting for Dove to break camp with the big club. Thus far he’s shown pretty good poise and command, and the Cardinals certainly could use a power arm in the pen.
Notably now off the list is Mark McCormick. McCormick has to undergo shoulder surgery to repair some debridement, and that ain’t good being that his main asset is his ability to throw hard. Without velocity, he’s nothing, we’ll have to see if he can rebound. Narrowly missing is Daryl Jones. I had a hard time shuffling between Jones, Hamilton and Haerther, but in the end it came down to Haerther having done more at higher levels. I guess I’m not all that high on Jones compared to others, his athletic ability gives him a high ceiling, but until he converts those tools into game usable skills I’m not super excited about him.
Filed under: Adam Ottavino, Blake Hawksworth, Bryan Anderson, Chris Perez, Cody Haerther, Colby Rasmus, Daryl Jones, Dennis Dove, Jon Jay, Mark Hamilton, Mark McCormick, Prospect rankings, Tyler Greene
erik
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I don’t think I would put Dove that high just yet. While I am very encouraged by his good spring and the good comments Duncan has said about him, I still need more than 4.1 innings to believe that he is over his control problems. And, he is going to need a good offspeed pitch if he’s going to be more than just a middle reliever and he doesn’t have that yet.
I agree about keeping Jay and Perez up there. Their stocks have gone up this spring. McCormick I agree with too.
I don’t think Narveson should be too far away from the Top 10 either.
It’s not 4 innings I’m basing my judgment on, it’s 51 innings at A ball where he only walked 2.28 per 9. I agree, he does need better secondary stuff but when you’re bringing serious heat for only an inning at a time, you can manage. I’m high on him because of the impression he made, because of that impression he’s got a chance to make an impact this season.
Narveson may deserve to be close to the top 10, but he’s only appeared in 3 games and currently the club thinks more of Randy Keisler then Narvie. That’s either telling or they are making a poor judgment. He’s out of options and won’t likely clear waivers. I hope they can at least trade him for something,but so far it’s pretty clear he doesn’t have much of a shot to make the team and his future isn’t in St. Louis.
I didn’t realize his walk rate was that good at High-A. I do agree he needs to be bumped up in the rankings, but I personally wouldn’t put him in the top 10.
I’m not really sure if the fact that Narvy hasn’t pitched that much is because they view Keisler better. Maybe they just aren’t giving him a shot to make the team and they don’t want other teams getting too good of a look at him so they’ll want to claim him on waivers. Keisler was brought in to compete for a spot so they’d obviously give him a longer look.
I can sense the club isn’t that high on Narvy, but this is one where I am going to have to disagree with them. We will see I guess. Hopefully we won’t lose him on waivers.
Good list and I completely agree with the 1-4 slots. Perhaps because of lack of depth, but more more so because of upside, Perez and Anderson deserve those slots. I wouldn’t be suprised to see Perez get a late season call up to see what he can do against stiffer competition.
If I were to nitpick about anything, or try to generate discussion, I’m inclined to slot Jay at five. He’s polished and has a very nice swing. His only question mark is how much power he will develop.
Then again, I must confess that for some reason, I know very little about Hawksworth. In the fawning over Garcia and Rasmus and the digging for details on Jay, Perez, and Anderson, I think Hawksworth gets lost in the mix.
so, erik, I was thinking today… how would you feel about Darin Erstad for a Rasmus player comp? long-term I don’t much like it(after age 26) but for his first couple years there is some similarity… no?
eh, not really feeling Erstad as a comp to Colby. He’s a CF, Erstad was more of a bigger guy. Colby’s has shown better power and plate discipline and speed. A comp for Colby I’m surprised no one has mentioned for Rasmus is Ray Lankford. Both have good speed, pop, discipline and good fielders. I think Rasmus could hit for a better average then Lankford.