Future Redbirds

I like Tyler Greene, but he’s an odd duck. John Sickels summed it up when he called Greene “Rob Deer with speed who plays shortstop with a good glove” He’s in most of the top 10 rankings for Cardinal prospects, but some are skeptical he’ll ever live up to his ceiling.

A 2nd team high school All-American, Greene was originally drafted by the Atlanta Braves in the 2nd round, he passed at the chance to go pro in order to attend Georgia Tech. He fared well in college, but his big year was his senior year, where he hit .372/460/.584 and stole 31 bases in 32 tries. On the negative, he also struck out 71 times in 269 at bats. He was considered the 40th best prospect in the country by Baseball America. The Cardinals had scouted him heavily and took him as the 30th pick of the ‘05 draft. Some wondered how well Greene’s abilities would transfer to the pro game, outside of his speed.

Those doubts began seemed to be confirmed as Greene hit .265/.343/.377 between Johnson City and Palm Beach in his first season. He also stole 19 bases in 20 attempts, but hit only 3 home runs. Despite his performance, the Cardinals kept him at A+ to start 2006 and he only hit .224 and had 23 errors. Reportedly, his lack of offense weighed on him and cost him concentration in the field. It also cost him a demotion to Quad Cities, but that’s when things started to turnaround. Greene smacked 15 home runs, and hit .287/.375/.552 for the Swing. In order to keep Greene happy there is the thought that he could bypass pitcher-friendly Palm Beach and go to Springfield for ‘07, which is much more of a hitter’s environment. That’s probably not a bad idea, but he’s going to get a lot less mistakes thrown his way so he’ll need to adjust.

Here are Greene’s strengths by the numbers:

• Power/Speed combo-His power speed number is 25.4, to make that relative that’s a decimal point lower then NL ROY Hanley Ramirez’s number last season.
• 52 stolen bases out of 56 attempts, a 93% success rate. Not only does he possess good speed, he makes excellent reads and gets good jumps.
• Underscoring his power, 26% of his fly balls cleared the fence for QC, 18% overall this season between the 2 levels of pitching he faced. So when he gets his pitch, he hammers it. Also, 34% of his hits were for extra bases.
• .345 Secondary average verses a .253 batting average.
• Strong throwing arm and good range.

ok, sorry again for being redundant. He has power and speed, you get it by now.

Here’s his weaknesses:

• .31 BB/K ratio
• 30% of his at bats he strikes out.
• Walk rate still isn’t at that 10% benchmark you’d like to see.
• Despite having good range and a strong arm, way too many errors. I’ve read he’s sort of like Juan Encarnacion in that regard. One minute he’ll do something spectacular, the other minute something boneheaded.
• Can be too pull happy

Rob Deer with speed may not be that far off from a comp. Greene is blessed with a lot of athletic ability, but theres a disconnect somewhere mentally that is keeping him from fully tapping into it, evidenced by his lack of plate discipline and defensive errors. I’ve heard on a couple of occasions now that Greene’s turnaround wasn’t due to any real adjustments, he just was seeing more fastballs, as breaking pitches can give him fits. Not good considering he’s ticketed for AA. He needs to smooth out his game to reach his potential as a solid regular.

I’ve seen Greene in person, at the time he was riding a hot streak and I had trouble believing he was the same guy who was struggling at Palm Beach. He went 2 for 4 that game with a home run, it was the day Mulder pitched in a rehab start. I was there to see Mulder more then anything else that day, but I remember thinking Greene’s swing looked pretty long and he struck out on a pitch that was pretty darn outside. I also remember he crushed his home run to deep left center and thinking “whoa, where did that come from?” Greene’s a pretty wiry guy, so his power was certainly a surprise.