Future Redbirds

1.  Jon Jay
2. Colby Rasmus
3. Jaime Garcia
4. Cody Haerther
5. Tyler Greene
6. Chris Narveson
7. Nick Stavinoha
8. Chris Perez

These are not necessarily how these prospects would rank in the organization, this is just how PECOTA judges their recent work to project how well the player would fare in the majors.

• Jon Jay and Colby Rasmus were separated by only one tenth of a point, though I’m sure we all agree that Rasmus has the higher ceiling. It’s pretty exciting that projects so well already. One of Rasmus’s top comps is the oft-rumored to be traded Lastings Milledge of the Mets’ system. Jay’s projected VORP was higher than any left fielder without major league experience. PECOTA thinks he could nearly hit .300 in the majors next year.
• Jaime Garcia’s projected VORP is higher then any other Cardinal starter not named Carpenter, Wainwright and Reyes (and Jeff Weaver, should he resign.) PECOTA believes Garcia would be a more valuable starter then Mark Mulder and Kip Wells by a full win above replacement.
• Cody Haerther’s VORP is about the same as Juan Encarnacion’s and higher then Preston Wilson’s.
• Despite his hacky-ness, Tyler Greene isn’t a full win less then Adam Kennedy and David Eckstein. That bodes well for his future, however one of his top comps was John Nelson, the soon to be 28 year old and two true outcome SS for Memphis, also a recent September call up.
• The rest: Narveson, Stavinoha and Perez are closer to replacement level.  Chris Perez is on the fast track and should be promoted aggressively. As a reliever, he doesn’t need to learn 2 or 3 new pitches like a starter, he just needs to get a little more experience. I expect Stavinoha to improve after being slowed by an ankle injury last season. Narveson is probably as big league ready as he’ll ever be. If he doesn’t make the team out of spring training, he’ll be exposed to waivers. Considering he’s a long shot to make the rotation and  the Nats are desperate for pitching, why not flip Narvie for Church straight up? It’s not like they are going to suddenly like Ryan Church. I’d hate to lose him for nothing.

Also of note- Tagg Bozied, who was signed as a minor league free agent and is the owner of the best name ever is very close to Haerther’s projected VORP. Top prospects Bryan Anderson and Daryl Jones were forecasted way below replacement level, they are still pretty far from reaching their ceilings. Hawksworth, Lambert, Ottavino and McCormick were all forecasted to be below replacement level. Ex-Cardinal prospect Daric Barton’s projection wasn’t all that hot. I can’t say the same for Dan Haren.