Future Redbirds

Here’s more batted ball data coming your way, this time we’ll look at the pitchers and see what we can learn. (The numbers in the middle with the L’s in front are league average). -

You may notice the absence of relief pitchers, sorry about that, perhaps another post. Just looking at the data, here’s a few things that stick out to me:

• Jaime Garcia is a pretty interesting prospect. Not only has the 20 year old lefty demonstrated good command by posting a nifty 3.85 K/BB ratio between Quad Cities and Palm Beach, but that’s a rather extreme ground ball rate. And did I mention he’s 20? And a lefty? I did? Oh, sorry. My only worry with him is his drop in strikeouts upon his call up to A+, but word is he wasn’t mixing up his pitches, either getting too fastball happy or too curve happy.
• Nick Webber is about as an extreme groundballer as you can be, but unlike Garcia, he has no out pitch. His 65:63 strikeout to walk ratio is pretty puke-a-fying. Someone, please, teach this guy how to throw a changeup, or a curve, or an eephus, or something!
• Some experts say that inducing infield flies for pitchers can be a skill. It bears watching in the case of Blake King. King also has a pretty low ground ball rate. He hasn’t had problems with the big flies yet, but it could hurt him down the road. Or as in the case of Anthony Reyes, it could draw some unnecessary skepticism from his future coaches.
•  The Texas League does bad things to fly balls, at least to our guys. Perhaps some bad luck can be chalked up to Lambert’s and Haberer’s poor showings in AA this past season. Or they were just throwing meatballs, you decide. Certainly both could stand to cut down the free passes. Lambert, the Cards’ #1 pick in ‘04, has an 5.75 ERA in 41 starts at the AA level. Suffice to say he’s been a disappointment so far.
• Ottavino, who was accustomed to throwing the 4 seamer in college, has taken pretty well to throwing the sinker so far, demonstrated by his 54% ground ball ratio. I think he’ll harness his command as he gets more comfortable with throwing the 2 seamer. It’s his ability to get lefties out that’s much more of a worry to me now. (WHIP 2.03, .892 OPS against southpaws, .83 WHIP, .385 OPS verses righties. It’s gotta have something to do with his delivery, but that’s another post for another day.)
• Boggs’ line drive % was pretty yeasty, line drive rates can vary year to year with pitchers. There may be some bad luck to his 9.5 hits per 9 rate last season.  Not that 9.5 hits per 9 in necessarily awful. Maybe he’s just hittable. On the contrast, an 8% line drive percentage could suggest that hitters don’t make good contact against Mark McCormick, if they make contact at all.

Anyway, just a few thoughts. Batted balls and their relationship with pitchers can be interesting, but it also can be overblown. Obviously, things like dominance and command are far more important gauges in projecting a pitcher’s future success, but looking at the numbers is thought-provoking, and in the case of Jaime Garcia, it adds some more luster to his prospect status.